The Open Championship is one of the hardest golf majors to predict.
Key takeaways
- Open Championship favorite Scottie Scheffler is getting less action and half the handle percentage compared to the previous golf major.
- Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Tommy Fleetwood are some of the Europeans bettors are flocking to in the outright market.
- Bryson DeChambeau is a popular American among bettors.
Since Padraig Harrington won back-to-back titles in 2007-2008, the sport’s final major tournament of the season had 15 different winners over the past 15 events. Weather is always an unpredictable factor on links courses, and Royal Portrush, hosting the event Thursday through Sunday, is no exception.
This expands the outright winner betting market to the extent the favorite isn’t a major liability for BetMGM, which would be just fine if Scottie Scheffler wins his fourth career major and second in 2025.
“The Open Championship always provides a challenging test, and this year’s weather at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland isn’t doing the players any favors,” BetMGM Senior Trader Matt Wall said. “BetMGM customers have sided with the European players so far, with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Tommy Fleetwood all gaining solid action.
He added, “Surprisingly, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is currently a positive result for us with his short odds, despite the public action.”
Scheffler dominated pre-major markets until this one. With +550 odds to win at Royal Portrush, he does still have the highest ticket count at 11.2%, about 5% less than last month's U.S. Open. The 14.6% of the handle on Scheffler is down from 30.2% in the previous major.
Heavy on the Europeans
Bettors are relying on a sensible method by focusing on Europeans who grew up playing on the fast fairways and in weather associated with the Open Championship.
The biggest liability is McIlroy (+750), the 2025 Masters winner who’s getting 8.8% of the tickets and 12.9% of the money heading into an Open Championship being played in the Northern Irishman’s native country.
ESPN BET reported that Rahm, a Spaniard with +1,200 odds, is second behind Scheffler and slightly ahead of McIlroy with 9.7% of the handle. Englishman Fleetwood is fourth with 5.6% of the handle and 4.1% of the tickets.
Other Europeans who saw between 2% and 5% of the handle include Viktor Hovland, Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, and Robert MacIntyre.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2,200) is a popular American choice in the outright market and BetMGM’s second biggest liability. He had 5.3% of the tickets and 6.9% of the handle.
Notable market movement
Odds shifted greatly for several players since the final major’s market opened. Scheffler was once +450 at ESPN BET but moved to +550 after he finished tied for eighth at last week’s Scottish Open.
Xander Schauffele won last year’s Open Championship with +2,200 odds at BetMGM and got under 4% of both tickets and money. He opened at +1,000 at ESPN BET to repeat, but coming off an early-season rib injury, Schauffele hasn’t been in top form, and his odds moved to +2,500.
Justin Rose opened at +7,500, but his odds got shorter at +5,000. Sepp Straka went from +10,000 to +4,000.
As for big bets, BetMGM reported one bettor placed a $5,000 wager on DeChambeau to win the Open Championship at +2,200 for a $110,000 payout. Caesars Sportsbook revealed a Nevada bettor wagered $5,000 to win $150,000 on Hovland to clinch the major.
A bettor in Nevada wagered $5K on Viktor Hovland (+2500) to win The 153rd OPEN ⛳
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) July 16, 2025
Potential Win: $125K pic.twitter.com/E2Lp6CcxCu
Other popular wagers
Nicolai Hojgaard dominated the popular first-round leader market, BetMGM’s biggest liability to sit atop the leaderboard after Thursday with 4.9% of the bets and 6.1% of the handle.
Rose (-175) is the most popular bet to make the cut at BetMGM, while Sam Burns (+160) leads the missed cut market. Fleetwood is the top choice to make the cut at ESPN BET.
Harry Hall has more wagers to finish in the top 20 (+300) and top 40 (+100) than anybody, while Fleetwood (+225) is the most popular bet in the tournament’s top 10 after Sunday.
