The 2022 Super Bowl was famously, or perhaps infamously, dubbed by some as the “Crypto Bowl.”
That year, the Big Game saw big marketing spends by cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase, Crypto.com, and the soon-to-be-bankrupt FTX. Larry David was in a commercial!
It was definitely a thing that happened, an effort to inject crypto into the mainstream. And, with this in mind, we may just remember Super Bowl LX as the Prediction Market Bowl.
- This year’s Super Bowl could be a breakout moment for prediction markets as deeper betting menus, more brands, and nationwide access may help drive customer acquisition and trading volume.
- Despite legal and regulatory uncertainty, prediction markets could be siphoning betting handle from traditional sportsbooks and have positioned themselves to do business in states such as California that do not have legal sports betting.
- The massive betting interest in the Super Bowl, combined with what may be a limited regulatory window and aggressive promotions, may mark an inflection point for prediction markets.
Now, will we see Larry David telling you to "bet your beliefs" between drives this Super Bowl Sunday? It seems doubtful. Furthermore, prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket have yet to become “official” partners of the NFL and therefore can't run TV ads during the game, according to Bloomberg.
So, if we’re going to remember this year’s Super Bowl as the Prediction Market Bowl, it may have to be for different reasons. There are a couple good ones.
First and foremost, operators of these exchanges are poised to attract plenty of attention, customers, and action to themselves. Indeed, this year’s Super Bowl is arguably the biggest opportunity yet for prediction markets, at least since the 2024 presidential election, which helped make their reputation.
Investment bank Citizens is forecasting a slight, 2% dip in legal wagering on this year's Super Bowl, to $1.5B. Possible explanations: a (relative) lack of promos, a lack of Swift, and an abundance of prediction markets. pic.twitter.com/2ouql0gPae
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) January 28, 2026
The federally regulated, technically “peer-to-peer” platforms are available across the U.S., allowing users to bet “yes” or “no” on certain event outcomes. Traders do so with event contracts, buying and selling them in a way that, when involving sports, feels a lot like sports betting.
Among other things, prediction markets are also in a much better spot product-wise for this year’s Super Bowl.
Not only can you bet on who will win the Seattle-New England matchup at Kalshi, but you on who will score a touchdown or what song Bad Bunny will sing to kick off the halftime show. Parlays are possible. The menus have gotten deeper. And while the offerings are not as deep as what you get with state-regulated online sportsbooks, it’s progress.
There are more brands for consumers to choose from now as well, and that may push these brands to find ways to stand out from the crowd. Last year, there was no DraftKings- or FanDuel-branded prediction market. This year, there is. A little competition seems likely.
While quantities last
So prediction markets can and do serve as an alternative to state-regulated sports betting, including in states that have not legalized sports betting at all. This is being done over the objection of some states that are claiming the trading of sports event contracts is just sports betting they haven't authorized.
The resulting litigation involving prediction market operators and state gambling regulators has been plentiful. What's more, it's still raging, meaning the Super Bowl-related opportunity the exchanges have may be a limited-time one.
In Massachusetts, for example, state authorities appear close to banning Kalshi from offering sports event contracts. Similar legal actions are being fought in other states, such as Nevada, New Jersey, and New York. Prediction market operators claim they are federally regulated and beyond the reach of state gambling rules; the states beg to differ.
Meanwhile, there are midterm elections looming in November that could reshape Congress. The federal legislature could become more hostile to prediction markets and harder on their regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University who has researched prediction markets, noted there is a lot of uncertainty still swirling around the future of the exchanges. They could, Strumpf said, still face legal, regulatory, and even potentially “societal” pushback. Some of that pushback has already materialized, such as legislation proposing state-level restrictions on what prediction markets can offer.
By the time the 2027 Super Bowl rolls around, then, the overall climate could be uglier for prediction markets. It could also look pretty good, depending on which way the courts rule and the voters vote.
Still, even for an expert like Strumpf, the level of uncertainty that persists around prediction markets is something to behold. Following the Super Bowl, will trading volume decline significantly, similar to how online sportsbooks experience slowdowns before and after football season? Or will prediction markets continue to do brisk business with contracts tied to other sports, economics, elections, and cultural events?
"I'm very curious to see where we'll be sitting a year from now," Strumpf told Covers. “It could be these things are bigger, or they could be on their way down.”
At any rate, it may be best to make hay while the sun still shines. It looks like there’s hay to be made, too, albeit maybe at the expense of others.
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Swift-less in Seattle
Jordan Bender, an analyst at investment bank Citizens, wrote in a note to clients Tuesday that they are expecting approximately $1.5 billion in legal wagering on the Super Bowl this year. That would be a 2% dip from 2025, and the reasons for that expected decline include a lack of star power and perhaps a bit of competition from prediction markets.
“The decline in handle is driven by less of a story line this year with the Chiefs/Eagles boasting key players like Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley and notable figures like Taylor Swift, while prediction markets, already seeing impressive volume on the game, are creating some pressure in the legal market,” Bender wrote.
It may seem a bit contradictory to the above, but the presence of prediction markets could ultimately bolster the technically “legal” handle on the Big Game as well.
A Kalshi trader has put $14 on Jake Bobo to win Super Bowl MVP.
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) January 27, 2026
Bobo currently has a 1% chance to win the award. pic.twitter.com/r1PIedB1Rg
That is due in no small part to the fact prediction markets can facilitate trading on the Super Bowl in states that have no state-regulated sportsbooks, including California, which will play host to SBLX. That could mean more wagering that is currently legal, albeit heavily disputed, being unofficially added to the overall Super Bowl betting pie.
There’s even the hope, however far-fetched it may seem, that the presence of prediction markets will put pressure on state lawmakers to legalize their own forms of online sports betting. According to analysts at investment bank Jefferies, these expectations in the industry “are shifting to a matter of 'when,' not 'if.'”
“Operators and suppliers continue to see no discernible impact from prediction markets in regulated states, driven by superior product, pricing and promotional capabilities of online sports betting (OSB), as well as differences in customer demographics,” the Jefferies analysts wrote in a recent note to clients. “Companies across the online gambling ecosystem are increasingly viewing prediction markets as a source of upside, either directly through incremental B2B sales opportunities or indirectly through an acceleration of OSB regulation.”
So, this year’s Super Bowl will be a customer-acquisition opportunity for prediction markets. It could also be an annoying reminder or source of motivation for lawmakers and regulators to make laws and regulate.
Maybe now is a good point to just reflect on how far prediction markets have come. It was only late in 2024 that Crypto.com decided to expand and offer sports-related event contracts, starting with Super Bowl futures.
Up until then, the CFTC-regulated prediction market business centered around event contracts tied to economics or elections. Crypto's sports event contracts disrupted that trend, and faced pushback initially from the CFTC before a new president was sworn in and the Trump-era CFTC adopted a more hands-off approach.
That approach has led to a dozen brands or so now offering their own prediction market platforms under the umbrella of CFTC regulation. Several states have tried to shoot down the trading of sports event contracts on those platforms, but legal battles will not be resolved in time to stop a trading frenzy on the 2026 Super Bowl. Maybe by 2027.
A land of opportunity
And the conditions could be ripe for prediction markets to pick up plenty of new users next Sunday.
As noted above, Super Bowl LX will be played in California, which lacks legal sports betting. So, does that mean zero Californians will bet on this year’s Super Bowl? Absolutely not, and prediction markets may play a role in that unauthorized wagering.
Approximately 80% to 90% of prediction market trading volume is tied to sports event contracts. And the U.S.-wide availability of prediction markets, if not their raison d'être, is a huge reason why they continue to grow and disrupt the status quo of legalized gambling. They are everywhere, including in states that have not legalized sports betting or any gambling whatsoever.
In a note to clients earlier this month, Citizens' Bender said it's estimated that approximately 5% of legal sports betting is now flowing to prediction markets, or around $8 billion in wagering on an annualized basis. So where is that betting happening?
“In the dataset, New York, New Jersey, California, Washington, and Ohio are the top states by volume, although we would point out that larger bet sizes from more frequent users can skew the data,” Bender wrote.
While there is no California-based team for that state's sports bettors to back in the Super Bowl this year, there is one for Washington state sports bettors. And although Washington does have legalized sports betting, it's only authorized on the lands of Native American gaming tribes.
So in Washington state, you could make a bet on the Super Bowl at "Seattle’s Closest Sportsbook," inside the Snoqualmie Casino and Hotel. You just couldn’t do it from downtown Seattle. Those restrictions may explain why Washington is seeing outsized trading volume on prediction markets.
Big numbers
Trading volume at prediction markets has grown, too. You need only look at the $27 million Kalshi saw for last year’s Super Bowl compared to the trading it’s already facilitated for this year’s game, which was north of $150 million as of Wednesday. So five times as much, and it’s not even Super Bowl week yet, when the action will really start ramping up.
This time last year, Covers reported more than $1.3 million in trading volume on the Super Bowl at Kalshi. So, there's going to be more betting that will happen in the run-up to and during this year’s game.
Kalshi and Crypto.com won’t have the relative run of the place this year either.
There is also Polymarket, which has inched back into the U.S. regulated market while still maintaining its offshore platform. Moreover, DraftKings and FanDuel, the two biggest online sports betting operators in the U.S., now have prediction market platforms that offer sports event contracts. In California, for example, you can't use FanDuel Sportsbook, but you can use FanDuel Predicts.
“This is really to compete more head-on against Kalshi and Robinhood and other of these financial firms that offer these event contracts in a number of states,” Bloomberg analyst Brian Egger said earlier this month.
Another reason why Polymarket is better than sportsbooks https://t.co/ezwrXUX0ZS pic.twitter.com/usqnqTpqXl
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) January 27, 2026
And, for online sportsbook operators like DraftKings and FanDuel, the Super Bowl is a crucial time of year to acquire new customers.
In 2025, analysts at Jefferies noted that DraftKings and FanDuel dangled offers to new customers like bet $5 and get $200 in “bonus” play. FanDuel also ran its “Kick of Destiny” promotion, wherein Eli Manning defeated brother Peyton, providing the former’s backers with a cut of $10 million in bonus bets.
“Regardless of the immediate financial outcome, the biggest Super Bowl opportunity for operators remains around customer acquisition,” the Jefferies analysts wrote.
It’s possible, then, that DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as Kalshi, Robinhood (which was sidelined last year by regulatory uncertainty), Crypto, Fanatics, PrizePicks, Underdog, and several others run some kind of Super Bowl promotion. At the very least, they'll all have prediction market platforms up and running on Super Bowl Sunday, helping bettors get down on the Big Game.
Strumpf suggested the prediction market approach to the Super Bowl may ultimately be "more subtle" than their performance leading up to and following the 2024 election. Then, the exchanges were more bullish about Donald Trump's prospects than the polls. After Trump won re-election, some serious victory lapping ensued.
If, however, Seattle wins the Super Bowl, which is what both sportsbook and prediction market odds are implying is more likely, you may not see the same kind of celebrations. Strumpf noted that prediction market operators have to continuously think about how the public perceives them; spiking the football on literal football betting may not be a good look.
Moreover, the exchanges need to show they can withstand what will likely be a rush of trading on Super Bowl Sunday. An outage or settlement controversy could dent their reputations, and making a good first impression could be key to getting first-time users to stick around.
Still, on Tuesday, Webull announced that (while exchange fees would still apply) it would not charge any commission on "Big Game and related contracts." The investment platform offers sports event contracts via a partnership with Kalshi.
The big game is officially set and market expectations are forming!
— Webull (@WebullGlobal) January 26, 2026
NE vs SEA
Stay ahead of the game with $0 commission on all Big Game related trades through Webull Prediction Markets.
Track pricing and get started today: https://t.co/Jk6rprcg54
Trading in Event Contracts… pic.twitter.com/mZpxWjmYvu
Will other prediction market operators offer their own Super Bowl-themed promotions? It’s possible.
It is, after all, the Big Game. That’s always a big opportunity for someone.
“Players acquired during this period are often not the highest quality, but the 523k downloads on Super Bowl Sunday last year represented 45% more than any other day during 2025,” Citizens’ Bender wrote this week.
