Bettors have indicated who they like heading into the NFL’s conference championships Sunday.
Key Takeaways
- Both favorites are getting the majority of wagers at three sportsbooks.
- Despite some action on the underdogs in recent days, books still need the Broncos and Rams to cover.
- A Denver long shot is getting action to win Super Bowl MVP.
With just two games to choose from, the public is rooting for the Patriots to cover 4.5 against the Broncos in the AFC final and the Seahawks (-2.5) to get it done against the rival Rams in the NFC. Both favorites are taking the majority of wagers at three different sportsbooks.
“Both favorites are popular with bettors this weekend in the conference championship games,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “The Broncos winning would be the best result overall for the sportsbook.”
That doesn’t mean the spreads are guaranteed to rise. According to Adrian Horton, theScore Bet’s North American senior director, there has been some action on the Broncos and Rams late this week.
“But at this point, an ideal outcome for us is still both underdogs covering on Sunday,” Horton said.
| Conference Championships | DraftKings Splits | BetMGM Splits | theScore Bet Splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots-Broncos (+4.5) | NE 72% bets NE 68% handle |
NE 65% bets NE 58% handle |
NE 73% bets NE 74% handle |
| Rams-Seahawks (-2.5) | SEA 80% bets SEA 77% handle |
SEA 72% bets LAR 51% handle |
SEA 64% bets SEA 51% handle |
AFC Championship Game
The Patriots are only favored in this AFC contest because of the ankle injury that starting quarterback Bo Nix sustained late in last week’s win over the Bills. With Jarrett Stidham taking over behind center, New England has seen over 70% of the bets at both DraftKings and theScore Bet.
BetMGM’s seen a smaller percentage of Patriots tickets, but it’s still heavily leaning toward the favorite. The online operator is also reporting the least amount of money on New England, although 58% of the handle still means BetMGM needs the underdog.
theScore Bet has seen the highest handle percentage heading into Sunday’s first game, but it’s not been completely one-sided. Denver is getting nearly 60% of the moneyline wagers so far, but 69% of the handle is on New England.
“The Patriots laying points has been our most popular market across the two games, but there are some Broncos believers out there,” Horton said. “Denver is still bringing in more than 25% of spread handle across all bet types in the matchup, and when looking at straight bets only, the Broncos are the most popular moneyline pick of the weekend.”
The over 42.5 is getting 80% of the handle at DraftKings, while nearly 60% of the money at theScore Bet is on the under. New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson’s over 47.5 rushing yards is the most-bet player prop and the most popular anytime touchdown scorer for this game at BetMGM.
NFC Championship Game
The Rams have won two playoff contests by field goals. For the first time this postseason, they’re playing the underdog role as the top-seeded Seahawks are slight favorites.
The two teams split their regular-season meetings, but bettors are leaning toward Seattle and its vaunted defense at home against the high-scoring Rams. The Seahawks are getting 80% of the wagers and 76% of the handle at DraftKings.
The other two sportsbooks have also seen more tickets come in on Seattle, with theScoreBet reporting a slight majority of the money on the home team. BetMGM, however, has seen Los Angeles get the small edge in handle heading into the late Sunday game.
The moneyline is closer to even at DraftKings, with the Seahawks (-142) seeing 56% of the tickets and 55% of the handle. At BetMGM, the Rams (+170) are getting over 70% of the bets, while Seattle is taking 70% of the handle.
The over 46.5 at BetMGM has taken 85% of the money. It’s a lot less at DraftKings, which reported 56% of the handle. More than 67% of the money at theScore Bet is on the under.
Seattle receiver Rashid Shaheed’s over 1.5 rushing yards is the most-bet player prop at BetMGM. Unsurprisingly, Rams receiver Puka Nacua leads wagering for the anytime and first touchdown scorer markets.
Looking into the future
Sportsbooks breathed a sigh of relief last week when the season ended for the Bears and 49ers, two of the bigger liabilities overall in the futures markets. This week, they turn their attention to the Rams and Patriots, but they are a much lesser threat.
“From a futures perspective, Rams and Patriots action came on strong in the second half of the season, but we’ve already settled most of our top liabilities from the overall market with the Eagles, Bills, and Bears eliminated before the conference championships,” Horton said.
“That continued a run of good results, which began with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions not making the playoffs. Some results are better than others, but as things stand now, we’d be fairly happy with any of the remaining teams lifting the Lombardi.”
Sportsbooks have predictably taken action on Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to win Super Bowl MVP in recent weeks, but Stidham has become a popular long shot in case he goes on an epic two-game run.
theScore Bet said he’s drawn the most tickets and second-most money behind Maye since the injury to Nix was announced. Right now, Stidham holds 15% of the handle, ahead of Seattle’s Sam Darnold (12%) and L.A.'s Matthew Stafford (9%).
