Tampa Bay Downs' road to the Kentucky Derby comes to an end on Saturday in the Grade III, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. A field of 10 three-year-olds will square off in this 1 1/16th-mile affair at approximately 5:18 p.m. ET.
No More Time won the local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but did not get much respect in the Kentucky Derby odds afterward. He'll try to pad his resume in this spot.
Find out who I'm siding with in my free betting picks for the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, March 9.
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Tampa Bay Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Tampa Bay Downs Race 11
- Post time: 5:18 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heartened | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +450 |
| 2 | Everdoit | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +6,600 |
| 3 | Give Me Liberty | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +1,200 |
| 4 | Good Money | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +600 |
| 5 | Domestic Product | 8-5 | +160 | +160 | +350 |
| 6 | Catire Vizcaya | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +6,600 |
| 7 | No More Time | 7-5 | +140 | +140 | +250 |
| 8 | Crazy Mason | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,000 |
| 9 | Grand Mo the First | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,000 |
| 10 | Sturdy | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,000 |
Odds as of March 7, 2024.
No. 5 Domestic Product (8-5) should earn the first graded stakes victory of his career in the Tampa Bay Derby and establish himself as one to watch as the road to the Kentucky Derby continues.
Domestic Product earned the fastest career speed figure of any horse in the field when last seen, settling for second in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. He was able to beat reigning Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness, but couldn't best the late charge of Hades. Tyler Gaffalione keeps the call on this Chad Brown trainee while main rival No. 7 No More Time (7-5, morning-line favorite) will get a new jockey on board in Javier Castellano, as Paco Lopez did not see fit to ship in for the call.
This son of Practical Joke is not a one-number horse either, as his first career route try was solid. Forgive his muddy-track effort in the Remsen two-back, as that's a race that's turned out to be quite deep with Dornoch, Sierra Leone, and Drum Roll Please all returning as winners.
No More Time wired a fairly weak group in the Sam F. Davis last time out, and the competition isn't much deeper here. He's training forwardly for the Tampa Bay Derby but needs to take a step forward in the speed figure department, or hope that Domestic Product misfires, if he wants to win.
No. 10 Sturdy (8-1) is still a maiden but has yet to miss the board in his brief three-race career. After suffering a hard bump at the gate in his first start, where he ran behind Kentucky Derby prospect Locked and Drum Roll Please, Sturdy ran second to Domestic Product before hitting the shelf. He came back last month with a solid rally for third going nine furlongs.
The cutback could sharpen the late kick on this son of Mitole, who gets Junior Alvarado in the irons.
No. 1 Heartened (10-1) goes out for Todd Pletcher, who's won the Tampa Bay Derby a record six times. He beat just five horses in a maiden race here last month, but the speed figure Heartened earned puts him in the hunt. Jose Ortiz will be aboard once more.
No. 3 Give Me Liberty (30-1) is also a maiden but looks to be live for at least a piece. He continues to move forward as the races get longer and he matures, and he's not that far off figure-wise for trainer Robertino Diodoro and jockey Pedro Morales.
Best bet: $1 trifecta 5/1,3,7,10/1,3,7,10, $1 trifecta 5/7,10/7,10, $1 trifecta box 5/7/10 ($20)
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Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 3, 2023 | Santa Anita Park | Fierceness |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 1, 2024 | Oaklawn Park | Catching Freedom |
| Jerome Stakes | January 6 | Aqueduct | Drum Roll Please |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 20 | Fair Grounds | Track Phantom |
| Southwest Stakes | February 3 | Oaklawn Park | Mystik Dan |
| Withers Stakes | February 3 | Aqueduct | Uncle Heavy |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 3 | Gulfstream Park | Hades |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 3 | Santa Anita Park | Nysos* |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | No More Time |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 17 | Fair Grounds | Sierra Leone |
| Sunland Derby | February 18 | Sunland Park | Stronghold |
| Rebel Stakes | February 24 | Oaklawn Park | Timberlake |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 2 | Gulfstream Park | Dornoch |
| John Battaglia Memorial | March 2 | Turfway Park | Encino |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 2 | Santa Anita Park | Imagination* |
| Gotham Stakes | March 2 | Aqueduct | Deterministic |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 23 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 23 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 30 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 30 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 30 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 6 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 6 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 6 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 13 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*winner trained by Bob Baffert and is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby.
Not intended for use in MA.
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