You don't have to be a horse racing fan to love the Kentucky Derby; you just have to love gambling, and really, if you don't, what the hell are you doing on this website?
On May 1 at Churchill Downs, every handicapper is trying to find that diamond in the rough who will beat the favorite and with good reason. Since 1979, there have only been five favorites to win the first leg of the Triple Crown – Spectacular Bid in 1979, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Smarty Jones in 2004, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown in 2008.
Last year, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird brought back the big numbers when he returned $103.20 as a 50-1 shot. The biggest longshot to win was 92-1 shot Donerail who returned 184.90 to win in 1913.
And even when a favorite wins, a longshot usually sneaks up for a big payoff in the exotics (exacta, trifecta, superfecta, etc.).
Crown jewel
The favorite to beat this year was Eskendereya but he was scratched from the race because of leg injury. No Eskendereya should really open up the Run for the Roses to a number of other horses. Eskendereya looked tough to beat and you certainly had to include this horse in all your exotic bets.
But favorites, like any other horse in the field, have to be pretty special horses to overcome the one and a quarter-mile distance, a crowded 20-horse field and the rough trip that typically is the result.
Know the track
When it comes to the Derby, one of the key tools for handicappers in recent years has been to stay away from horses who have prepped strictly on synthetic track surfaces. Churchill Downs, the site of the Derby, is a dirt track and synthetic runners have failed miserably over the track.
The problem is that eventually a synthetic-surface running horse is probably going to win the Derby some day. But it will need to be a special horse with phenomenal pedigree, speed and stamina and I don’t see that kind of horse emerging among the Kentucky Derby contenders out there.
The way I look at it, if a horse runs at least one race on the dirt, at least it’s a small indicator of whether that horse can at least handle a dirt surface. Workouts on dirt surfaces leading up to the Derby also help.
Other names to know
Bettors are yearning to find that longshot that will upset Eskendereya and dozens of people I’ve talked to are jumping on the Sidney’s Candy bandwagon. This horse does look awesome on paper.
The horse has dominated on the West Coast, showing the versatility of winning wire-to-wire at Santa Anita and off the pace in his second race at Del Mar. But this horse has been strictly a synthetic runner and it’s a huge question mark whether he can handle the dirt track at Churchill Downs.
This horse seems to need a slow pace with no one pressuring him and that’s unlikely to happen in the Derby. Most front-running speed horses like Sidney’s Candy have wilted late in the Derby. And he is likely to have plenty of front-running, early speed company with the likes of Eskendereya, American Lion, Rule, Deans Kitten, Super Saver and Endorsement in the first tier of runners.
Eskendereya seemed to be the only horse in that group with a late kick needed for the win. If the remaining frontrunners crash and burn, who can sneak up for a decent long shot win?
Among the horses I will be looking at in the days leading up to the Derby in an effort to beat the big favorite will be Lookin At Lucky, Awesome Act, Caracortado, Mission Impazible and Ice Box. All these horses have raced on the dirt and have shown late-closing speed.
Two for your money
The longshots I am focusing on at this stage are Awesome Act and Ice Box.
Awesome Act did his 2009 racing in Europe and had a win, two places and a show in six starts. In the Unit
