Underdogs lose more often than they win. That's true in every major sport, every season, and it's exactly why sportsbooks post odds the way they do. But "more often than not" isn't the same as "always," and the gap between those two ideas is where profitable betting actually lives.
We pulled underdog straight-up win rates across MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF and NCAAB going back to 2016, then split the data into two windows (2016-20 and since 2021) to see which sports give underdogs the best shot, and whether that's changed in recent years. The results vary widely by league, from baseball's near coin-flip rate to college football's steep uphill climb, and the trend lines tell their own story about where the value is shifting.
Below, you'll find the full breakdown by sport, the biggest trends in the numbers, and a few practical tips for finding underdog value instead of betting on longshots blindly.
Underdog win rate by league, 2016-present*
| League | Win Rate (2016-20**) | Win Rate Since 2021 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 41.5% | 42.7% | +1.2 |
| NFL | 33.1% | 33.3% | +0.2 |
| NBA | 31.8% | 32.0% | +0.2 |
| NCAAF | 25.4% | 27.3% | +1.9 |
| NCAAB | 25.9% | 26.9% | +1.0 |
*Results up-to-date as of July 15, 2026.
**NCAAB and NBA include 2015-16 results.
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Underdog win rate trends
- MLB remains the friendliest sport for underdog bettors, and it isn't close. At 42.7% since 2021, baseball underdogs win outright far more often than in any other league on this list, nearly 10 points ahead of NFL and NBA and over 15 points ahead of the college sports. The 162-game grind flattens the gap between good and bad teams on any given night, so bettors chasing moneyline value should look here first, not in the sports where favorites dominate more consistently.
- Every league has trended toward more underdog success since 2021. That consistency across five different sports suggests something structural rather than a fluke in any single league, whether it's expanded transfer portals and player movement in college sports, tighter salary structures in pro leagues, or sharper public betting patterns pushing lines further off true value. It's a small enough shift that it shouldn't change strategy on its own, but it's worth knowing the wind is blowing in the underdog's favor league-wide.
- NCAAF posted the largest jump of any sport. College football has seen more roster turnover in this stretch than any other sport thanks to transfer portal and NIL-driven movement, and that kind of instability tends to erode the gap between blue bloods and everyone else. Bettors who assumed the old hierarchy still holds may be underpricing plenty of Group of 5 and rebuilding Power 4 teams as a result.
- NFL and NBA show the flattest trend lines of the group. That kind of stability points to two of the most efficiently priced betting markets in sports, where public money and sharp money both flow heavily enough that mispriced underdogs don't stick around long. Finding an edge in these two leagues likely requires digging into specific matchups and situational spots rather than expecting a market-wide shift to work in your favor.
How to find the best underdogs
The numbers above make one thing clear: blindly backing every underdog in a given sport is a losing proposition over time. If it were that simple, everyone would do it and sportsbooks would go broke. Underdog betting works when it's selective, not automatic; here's how to sharpen that selection.
Shop every line before you bet
A few points of value add up fast. If the Dolphins are +160 at one book and +170 at another, that gap compounds over a full season of betting. Sticking to a single sportsbook when your state offers several means leaving money on the table on every single wager (not to mention missing out on the sign-up bonuses and ongoing promos that come with spreading your action across multiple apps.) Professional bettors line-shop as a matter of routine, not preference.
Lean on real data, not gut feel
Free, reliable tools exist for almost every sport: KenPom for college basketball efficiency metrics, FanGraphs for advanced MLB stats, and plenty more depending on what you're betting. Covers' computer picks and our own odds calculator are built to take some of the guesswork out of pricing an underdog. The bettors who win long-term treat these tools as part of their process, not an afterthought.
Keep emotion out of it
An underdog bet needs a reason beyond "I want them to win." Betting your favorite team out of loyalty, or firing off a same-game live bet in the heat of the moment, is how discipline erodes. Every underdog play should hold up to the same cold, analytical standard you'd apply to any other wager.
Trust beat writers over national talking heads
TV analysts are entertainers first, bettors rarely. An upset take from a national pundit carries a lot less weight than it sounds like it should. Beat writers (the ones covering a team day in and day out, worth following directly on X) actually know the locker room, the injury situations, and the matchup nuances that move a line. When you're deciding whether an underdog has a real shot, their perspective (from both sides of the matchup) is worth far more than a studio hot take.
