2024 Masters Picks: One Masters Bet You Need to Make Before Odds Move

Shane Lowry's 2019 Open Championship victory is the highlight of a strong major championship resume but he's excelled here at Augusta, too, and might just be undervalued at 50/1 this week. Back him now before it's too late.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Apr 10, 2024 • 13:15 ET • 4 min read
Shane Lowry The Masters PGA Tour
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Masters odds are on the move and will continue to fluctuate leading into the first major championship at Augusta National Golf Course.

Because the golf odds are available throughout the year for the Masters, we have a mature market and a good idea of where each player stands leading into the tournament. Still, continued adjustments can be expected leading into Thursday, and as they say, timing is everything.

Shane Lowry to win the 2024 Masters is my No. 1 bet you need to make before the odds move, and you’ll also want to make sure to check out all our free golf picks and Masters predictions.

Shane Lowry to win outright (+5,000)

Good luck finding a player in better current form and sporting better recent Masters results than Shane Lowry from his position on the odds lists. Of course, he’s also a major champion with another 10 Top-25 finishes on the biggest stages since his win at The Open in 2019.

Lowry’s four consecutive Top-25 finishes at Augusta peak with a T3 at the 2022 Masters and he heads to the 2024 edition on the heels of a sterling string during the Florida Swing. The Irishman parlayed a T4 at the Cognizant Classic and solo third at the Arnold Palmer into a solid T19 showing at THE PLAYERS.

He also checks out statistically, ranking second in this field in driving accuracy, third in true strokes gained approach, and 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past 20 measured rounds. Add his tidy short game and Lowry is positioned to contend for a fifth consecutive Masters.

I’m not convinced we’ll see a huge adjustment to his odds leading into Thursday, but Caesars is hanging a +3,500 price as of Monday afternoon and a number of other shops are at +4,500. This +5,000 DraftKings number is both an outlier high and offers a positive expected value of 43% on the +3,550 Caesars odds.

Additionally, Lowry has an outlier +150 price to finish Top 20 through BetRivers which is a perfect complement to backing him in the outright market. With FanDuel listing Lowry at +135 to finish Top 20, there's a +EV of 7% attached to the BetRivers price.

Pick: Shane Lowry to win outright (+5,000 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Shane Lowry Top 20 (+150 at BetRivers)

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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