⛳ Valero Texas Open: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Jordan Spieth (+1800) – 2021 champion is back in form (T12 in three of last four starts) and back on Texas soil
- Best early value: Denny McCarthy (+4500) – Finished T12 in Houston last week and has logged four Top 20s at TPC San Antonio, including a career-best runner-up in 2024
- Course: Finding fairways is critical to setting up approach shots into the Oaks Course's fast, undulating greens.
- Weather: Light rain is expected throughout the week, with heavy thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday.
- Expected cut: The cut has fallen between 1-under and 3-over in each of the last five years. The Top 65 and ties will advance to play the weekend.
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Valero Texas Open odds: favorites & full field
The Valero Texas Open runs April 2-5 at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.
| Golfer |  |
|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1600 |
| Russell Henley | +1600 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1600 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +2000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2200 |
| Maverick McNealy | +2500 |
| Sepp Straka | +2500 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | +3000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +3000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +3300 |
Check out the full Valero Texas Open field here.
Best bets card
- Outright: Keith Mitchell (+3000): Tee game has propelled him to consistent results at TPC San Antonio, and he's coming off a T14 at the Houston Open.
- Outright: Denny McCarthy (+3300): Finished runner-up here in 2024 and is coming off a strong 67-66 weekend in Houston.
- Outright: Ryo Hisatsune (+4000): T5 in San Antonio last year and has logged some impressive results in big events to start the season.
- Top 40: Alex Smalley (+100): Smalley has five Top 40s while gaining true strokes across the board through nine 2026 events, and he just fired four rounds under par to finish T21 last week in the Houston Open.
- Top 40: Tony Finau (+100): Finau has gained true strokes on approach in each of his six trips to this event, and he’s carded a Top 40 in five of his past seven events with three Top 20s.
- Matchup: Ryo Hisatsune Over Sudarshan Yellamaraju (-125): Hisatsune has been excellent all season and finished T5 in this event last year, while Yellamaraju is playing The Oakes Course for the first time competitively.
- Round 1 score: Russell Henley 70 or Under (+100): Henley fired 69 in three of four rounds during his solo fourth in this event in 2024 while also ranking sixth in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and second on approaches.
Course breakdown: What wins at TPC San Antonio?
TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course is a 7,435-yard Par 72 designed by Greg Norman and Sergio Garcia that features Bermuda fairways and greens.
- Narrow tree-lined fairways emphasize driving accuracy
- Three of four Par 5s measuring over 590 yards
- Multi-tiered, undulating greens require elite precision on approach shots
Key stats & player profiles to target
Hitting it long and straight off the tee will grant enough scoring opportunities with wedges and short irons if the Texas wind stays down. Notably, four of the last eight winners led the field in greens in regulation.
Consistently getting up and down will be a challenge on these tough greens, giving short-game specialists a big advantage if the conditions are tougher and greens in regulation are harder to come by.
- Strokes gained approach/GIR%
- Driving accuracy
- Par-5 scoring
- Scrambling percentage
Players to watch
- Ludvig Aberg: Length off the tee and precision on approach shots make him a deserving favorite this week.
- Robert MacIntyre: A much-improved driver has allowed him to be a more consistent threat on longer tracks.
- Jordan Spieth: Familiarity with the Texas wind always gives him an edge when back on home turf.
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Keith Mitchell (+3000)
Coming off a T14 in Houston, where he ranked second in the field in true strokes gained off the tee and 12th from tee to green.
- Course Fit: Tee game is key, and he finished T12 here in 2025
- Recent Form: Three Top-15 finishes in last seven starts
- Market Value: His course history is being undervalued in a weaker field
Risk: Hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2019.
Pick 2: Denny McCarthy (+3300)
An uninspiring start to 2026 took a turn with a T12 in Houston last week.
- Course Fit: Four Top 20s here, including a runner-up in 2024
- Recent Form: Went 67-66 on the weekend in Houston
- Market Value: Odds haven't accounted for his strong Houston result
Risk: Hadn't finished better than T40 in 2026 and missed back-to-back cuts before the Valspar Championship.
Top 40 picks
Pick 1: Alex Smalley (+100)
There have been signs from Alex Smalley to start the 2026 season with five Top 40s while gaining true strokes across the board through nine events, and he also just shot under par in all four rounds of the Houston Open to finished T21 last week.
- Market Value: Smalley's well-rounded game is being underpriced
- Key Stat: Smalley has gained true strokes across the board in 2026
Risk: Smalley has missed the cut in each of his four trips to this event.
Pick 2: Tony Finau (+100)
Tony Finau has gained true strokes on approach in each of his six trips to this event, and he’s carded a Top 40 in five of his past seven events with three Top 20s.
- Market Value: Six-time PGA Tour winner is being undervalued in this middling field
- Key Stat: Finau has finished Top 40 in five of his past seven events
Risk: Finau has only finished Top 40 twice in six visits to The Oakes Course.
Matchup bet
Ryo Hisatsune Over Sudarshan Yellamaraju (-125)
While Sudarshan Yellamaraju is showing off along a T5-T6 stretch his PGA Tour track record is short, and Ryo Hisatsune has been excellent all season and finished T5 in this event last year. Yellamaraju is also playing this event for the first time competitively.
- Matchup advantage: Hisatsune has more PGA Tour experience, including in this event
- Key stat: Hisatsune is also fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026
Risk: Yellamaraju enters on T5-T6 heater.
Round 1 bet
Russell Henley to shoot 70 or lower (+100)
Not only is Russell Henley in scorching form ahead of the 2026 Valero, he fired 69 in three of four rounds during his solo fourth in this event in 2024 while also ranking sixth in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and second on approaches.
Market Value: These odds aren't in line with Henley's form or course history
Key Stat: Henley shot 69 in three of four rounds to finish fourth here in 2024
Risk: Weather could make scoring conditions difficult Thursday afternoon.
Odds movement & market notes
It’s hardly any surprise to see Tommy Fleetwood, Luvig Aberg and Jordan Spieth among the most popular bets at BetMGM ahead of Round 1 on Thursday. Proven PGA Tour winners Hideki Matsuyama and Sepp Straka are also large liabilities at the shop, which reinforces the top-heavy field set to play The Oakes Course this week.
How to watch & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 4:00-7:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday: 1:00-3:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3:30-6:00 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
- Sunday: 1:00-2:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 2:30-6:00 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Valero Texas Open betting FAQ
When is the 2026 Valero Texas Open?
The Valero Texas Open starts on Thursday, April 2, and finishes on Sunday, April 5.
Where will the 2026 Valero Texas Open be played?
The Valero Texas Open is played at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course in Texas Hill Country, about 20 miles north of downtown San Antonio.
Who is the 2026 Valero Texas Open favorite?
Luvig Aberg, Russell Henley, and Tommy Fleetwood are currently co-favorites at +1600.
What are the Valero Texas Open FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Valero Texas Open matchup bets work?
When betting Valero Texas Open matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Valero Texas Open cut line?
The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 (36 holes) will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between -1 and +3 the past five years.
Are the Valero Texas Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Valero Texas Open; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
