Regression to the mean continues to strike with vengeance.
Season to date: 143 OVER 120 UNDER
With regards to tonight's games, the totals have already dropped by about 4 points in all 4 games, suggesting a reaction to this recent trend by bettors.
Will this trend continue, or do OVERS start to show a little bounce-back?
The "lowering of the totals" obviously favors the overs, but the current inertia of the "regression to the mean" that favors the unders might still be hard to overcome.
Statistics in action!
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Regression to the mean continues to strike with vengeance.
Season to date: 143 OVER 120 UNDER
With regards to tonight's games, the totals have already dropped by about 4 points in all 4 games, suggesting a reaction to this recent trend by bettors.
Will this trend continue, or do OVERS start to show a little bounce-back?
The "lowering of the totals" obviously favors the overs, but the current inertia of the "regression to the mean" that favors the unders might still be hard to overcome.
2025: 148 overs - 156 unders = 51.3 % unders for the season
2024: 125 overs - 133 unders = 51.5 % unders for the season
2023 132 overs - 128 unders = 50.8% overs for the season
And combining the 3 seasons it's even closer to 50%, 405-417 = 50.7% lean to the unders.
As you can see, the final numbers end up quite close to the mean of 50%. "Regression to the mean" usually rules!
As mentioned in a previous thread, before this current crazy run of 16 straight unders, the tally was 143-104 (58%) in favor of the overs. A regression to the mean was almost inevitable.
The moral of the story: When a large sample size that is expected to be close to 50% ends up approaching 60%, it's wise to start pounding predicted results (bets) that will bring it back toward the mean.
@jurisairam
Looking at the database on this site:
2025: 148 overs - 156 unders = 51.3 % unders for the season
2024: 125 overs - 133 unders = 51.5 % unders for the season
2023 132 overs - 128 unders = 50.8% overs for the season
And combining the 3 seasons it's even closer to 50%, 405-417 = 50.7% lean to the unders.
As you can see, the final numbers end up quite close to the mean of 50%. "Regression to the mean" usually rules!
As mentioned in a previous thread, before this current crazy run of 16 straight unders, the tally was 143-104 (58%) in favor of the overs. A regression to the mean was almost inevitable.
The moral of the story: When a large sample size that is expected to be close to 50% ends up approaching 60%, it's wise to start pounding predicted results (bets) that will bring it back toward the mean.
UNDERS went 3-1 last night, based on the closing lines. I use the closing lines since the database this tracking is drawn from is based on closing lines.
Season to date: 144 OVER 123 UNDER = 53.9% OVERS
19 of the last 20 games have gone UNDER
Interestingly last night, the NY/Chic game and the Atl/LV outcomes were barely under the closing total lines. During the morning, both of those lines initially dropped from the opening lines about 4 points to around 177.5. For those that took the over at that point, they won the bet. This follows my expectation that overs would again start hitting if lines started adjusting to lower numbers. Both over and under bettors won by the skin of their teeth depending on which line you got.
Regression to the mean has adjusted by 4% points within the last week of games, a very quick turnabout.
UNDERS went 3-1 last night, based on the closing lines. I use the closing lines since the database this tracking is drawn from is based on closing lines.
Season to date: 144 OVER 123 UNDER = 53.9% OVERS
19 of the last 20 games have gone UNDER
Interestingly last night, the NY/Chic game and the Atl/LV outcomes were barely under the closing total lines. During the morning, both of those lines initially dropped from the opening lines about 4 points to around 177.5. For those that took the over at that point, they won the bet. This follows my expectation that overs would again start hitting if lines started adjusting to lower numbers. Both over and under bettors won by the skin of their teeth depending on which line you got.
Regression to the mean has adjusted by 4% points within the last week of games, a very quick turnabout.
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