WNBA Player Props 7/16

PHX Thomas 15+ P -130 BV (go to milestone section for 15+, otherwise it's 15.5 which is not the play unless maybe +100 or better.)

SZN: 63-50 | -1.39u | -0.97% ROI 

@emoltzan

 Thanx bro

Lean

ATL Gray o27.5

@emoltzan

 Good luck tonite! 

@emoltzan

 Oh god...

I played this and guess what 3 rd period 4 min left and 4 the period she is resting 

Pra I played and at 26 she is on the bench I guess atl wining big margin so who cares

Gambling 

@emoltzan

Please try your best for evening games too..

Regards

Right on par with recent luck. 

NYL Ionescu o18.5 P -145 BV

@emoltzan

 Thanks brother.. 

@munnasai

Thanks for what, another loser? 

I'm really defying probability here with this 2-12 run. 

Copy paste from ChatGPT:

Here’s the chart showing the chance of going 2–12 or worse in 14 bets depending on your true win rate:

Even with a 56.5% win rate (break-even at -130), this kind of slump happens about 0.5% of the time—roughly 1 in 200.

At 60% win rate, it's extremely rare—under 0.1%.

A 50% win rate (no edge) still sees this happen 1.6% of the time.

Only at 45% win rate (losing bettor) does this become meaningfully likely: ~5.6%.

Conclusion:

If you’re really beating the line and have a +EV process, this stretch is just severe variance, not cause for overhaul. Stay the course, keep logging, and re-evaluate only over a larger sample (100+ bets minimum).

Let me know if you want to expand this to look at other streak patterns (e.g., 3–11, 4–10) or simulate ban

kroll impact.

@emoltzan

 Thanks for your guide( pick)

Win or lose is not in your hand..

I know that last couple of days , went not very well.

But how i can forgot that before that you make us win too...

Regards

My girl Sabrina has been iffy lately. I went with under 19.5

NYL Stewart u20.5 P -105 BV

@Osser

Based on recent trends you'd be doing very well fading me. 

DAL Ogunbowale u15.5 P -124 PB

E. Following you on Sabrina and Stewart

Wow..Sabrina wow..

1 st que 10 points...and than 

@munnasai

Was it really 10 P 1Q?? I didn't check till 4th and saw she had 15, knew it was chalked with the fuckin score. Saw she missed 2 3s while checking play-by-play.....

@emoltzan

 Ya bro..

1 st period she made 10 points ...I saw live..

2 nd period she play last 3 min.

3 rd period 5 points

4 th 0 points..

7 min left in 4th she benched...cause again they wining by 20 points..

Its done..

Lately we not lucky

My girl sabrina did indeed have 10 in the first. I was thinking my under 19.5 was doomed. 
stayed off Stewart. 

This is an incredible run. 

2-14, I am absolutely defying the odds. 

@Osser

 I am happy for you that you won your bet..but please I like your opinion how Sabrina make 10 points in 1 st period and only 5 points in total 3 period ..

Not going in my head ,

How  it's possible ???

Fix ???

I got it live over 20.5, LOST.

When the line came up at 20.5 and she had 10 points already, the line was telling it goes under.

I thought it should be much higher, maybe should have stayed away.

@FTP

 Bro , I use to lose the bet but this kind of bet , not make me sleep in the night

10 points in 10 min..

5 points in 30 min..

Live bet offer me 80% of my money and wining money.

I did not take it cause I need only 10 points in 30 min...

In the end I lost my money plus wining money..

Disasters ..

There's no way this is sustainable, it's very very hard to even blind pick this bad with these odds. Pretty often beating the closing line too, this only means one thing. Positive regression has to come, but we don't know when unfortunately. Never hop on a hot capper but always hop on a cold capper with a proven edge.