I'm guessing the books and bettors are in the process of driving down the totals of upcoming games.
Those lines might appear lower than expected, and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a swing back to the OVERS hitting quite frequently in upcoming games.
3
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm guessing the books and bettors are in the process of driving down the totals of upcoming games.
Those lines might appear lower than expected, and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a swing back to the OVERS hitting quite frequently in upcoming games.
I agree, as long as the totals are kept high, I expect more of a regression to the mean.
Before this run of 15 consecutive UNDERS, there had been 143 overs and 104 unders up to that point of the season. That's 58% OVERS, over the course of the first 247 games of the season. Obviously you expect close to 50% over a large sample size like that! As you said, a very swift return to average indeed.
In my original post I thought the OVERS may return if the linesmakers start to bring their opening totals lower, and if bettors drive it lower due to the recent spate of unders. Otherwise, the regression to the mean favors the UNDERS hitting.
In summary, perhaps a short term bump in OVERS hitting, but over the course of the rest of the season, more UNDERS hitting.
2
@guyhopestowin
I agree, as long as the totals are kept high, I expect more of a regression to the mean.
Before this run of 15 consecutive UNDERS, there had been 143 overs and 104 unders up to that point of the season. That's 58% OVERS, over the course of the first 247 games of the season. Obviously you expect close to 50% over a large sample size like that! As you said, a very swift return to average indeed.
In my original post I thought the OVERS may return if the linesmakers start to bring their opening totals lower, and if bettors drive it lower due to the recent spate of unders. Otherwise, the regression to the mean favors the UNDERS hitting.
In summary, perhaps a short term bump in OVERS hitting, but over the course of the rest of the season, more UNDERS hitting.
It appears to be so, I've noticed this too, though I haven't made a rec. of it.
What has worked for me as of late in WNBA. Is if an opening line for u/o is set at 180.5 (and I believe game will go over, yet starts to fail later in match) and then during the mid to late 4TH Qrt Live-Bet-Action total is now set at around 167-172'ish for the u/o, it seems I'll usually then hit the "over" when I place a wager.
The same applies for the "under/s." If I believe a game will fall under a certain set total before game starts e.g: 185, yet by mid'ish 4th Qrt on Live-Bet it's now set to 197'ish - now if I take the "under" (granted no OT) my under wager will now most likely hit than not.
Just sharing some insight and how I've been playing. That said, if one believes they're going to lose on a totals play, or at least want to hedge or double up to retain their profit, it's just something for a person to keep an eye out on..
If it don't make Dollars it don't make Cents
1
@sshake1963
It appears to be so, I've noticed this too, though I haven't made a rec. of it.
What has worked for me as of late in WNBA. Is if an opening line for u/o is set at 180.5 (and I believe game will go over, yet starts to fail later in match) and then during the mid to late 4TH Qrt Live-Bet-Action total is now set at around 167-172'ish for the u/o, it seems I'll usually then hit the "over" when I place a wager.
The same applies for the "under/s." If I believe a game will fall under a certain set total before game starts e.g: 185, yet by mid'ish 4th Qrt on Live-Bet it's now set to 197'ish - now if I take the "under" (granted no OT) my under wager will now most likely hit than not.
Just sharing some insight and how I've been playing. That said, if one believes they're going to lose on a totals play, or at least want to hedge or double up to retain their profit, it's just something for a person to keep an eye out on..
Next time you play wings let me know , I know that valkeries or aces or wings likes to choke in 4th Q but that’s only against stronger teams. If it was the cons or whatever, they would pound them
0
@ZipYourLib
Next time you play wings let me know , I know that valkeries or aces or wings likes to choke in 4th Q but that’s only against stronger teams. If it was the cons or whatever, they would pound them
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