SI Group's CBB Selection Sunday "Five winning days in a row, onto the next" ***ANALYSIS INSIDE***

8-5 ATS yesterday, with Buckeyes blowing a huge lead, UNC blowing a big overtime lead and Kent State losing by one. I'll take it, more profits is all that matters and here we go for Selection Sunday.



Atlantic 10 Tournament - Championship Game


Dayton Flyers +4.5

There is a very strong change the Richmond Spiders get into the Big Dance regardless of the outcome of this game but the same can't be said about the 12 loss Dayton Flyers and that would probably be why this game is so huge for them so obviously I think the points are worth a go. The Flyers showed how badly they want this when they beat Xavier two days ago but it's also tough going against a Richmond team that is 6-0 ATS in their last six games and who have lost only once in their last 10 games. What's ironic as well is the fact that these were the two best away spread teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference this season and both teams combined for a whopping 22 wins away from home. On that same note both these teams have overall winning records on the spread this season. On paper, for the season, Richmond's got this but there is more to it in a game like this.

No opponent has scored more than 60 points against Richmond in the last five games and it's definitely because of defense that they are in this Championship Game today because on the offensive side of things the Spiders have shot 40.1% from the field in those last five games and are averaging 64.4 points per game. What makes Richmond such a tough team to beat is their ability to generate second chance opportunities with their 36.8 rebounds per game so the bad shooting percentage is almost always canceled out by the offensive rebounds and the second chances they generate. Having said that, if there is one team that can defend their own basket and give Richmond problems on the boards, it's Dayton who have allowed only 26.8 rebounds per game their last five games and have not given opponents any kind of second chance opportunities. I have questions and concerns about the Flyers ability to score points in this game because they haven't been that effective offensively this week but their size and rebounding along with the deadly perimeter shooting the last couple of weeks and not to mention the free pass into the NCAA Tournament, I don't see them not keeping this close.

There is a lot on the line and the Flyers better be ready this time around because they had a chance to host Richmond earlier this year but the Flyers lost 70-61 at home back in January but the fact that the game was such a long time ago is a plus for all Dayton backers because a lot of time has passed and back in January I would have promised you the Flyers were not going to play in the NCAA Tournament this year but here they are one win away. Betting on Dayton on Sundays has been a disaster for two or three seasons now as they have covered only 4 of the last 22 (incredible) but this is a special Sunday with so much on the line. I have watched and followed quite a bit of Atlantic 10 basketball over the years and anytime these two teams play, you have to expect the unexpected, which would be why the underdog has covered 9 of the last 13 (with one of those being a PUSH). Nobody expects Dayton to win so backing Dayton only makes sense.

Dayton plus the points.

FWIW, I LIKE DAYTON ALSO.

Took Richmond -4.

wow looks like the board is on Flyers? BOL 

 Good luck today.

BOL- Took Richmond M/L

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SEC Tournament - Championship Game


Florida Gators -1.5

Expect nothing short of a fantastic game by the two most consistent teams in the SEC Conference this season. This will be a great game to watch, both teams are already in the NCAA Tournament and this is pure rivalry now with the season series on the line as we are tied at 1-1 with both home teams winning in their games played in February. On that note, Kentucky has 9 wins away from home in 2010-2011 while Florida now have 12 wins away from home and the Gators finished with a 9-4-1 ATS record in those away games while Kentucky finished with a 7-10 ATS record in their 17 lined away games. Another very important note is that DERON LAMB IS OUT TODAY for Kentucky and there is a good chance that DeAndre Liggins doesn't play a full compliment of minutes with both suffering ankle injuries this week. Lamb was averaging 17.0 points per game in the SEC Tournament while Liggins is averaging 9.0 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game this week. Big loss on Lamb, even bigger loss if Liggins can't go 30 minutes at least.

On the defensive side of things give me Kentucky every single day of the week because they make plays, they are aggressive, they force bad shots and they don't let opponents get into a rhythm but with Lamb out I have second thoughts on the strategy for the Wildcats. Florida is not messing around lately and they average an incredible 78.8 points per game in their last five games now and shoot 50.2% from the field in those games. The Wildcats are scoring points too but nowhere near the numbers the Gators have put up the last two weeks. Size could be a problem for Florida but Liggins for Kentucky has an ankle problem, he won't be as effective on the boards and the Gators always protect their basket and have some very rebounding guards as the team has allowed only 28.0 rebounds per game the last five games. Both teams are deadly from the perimeter and both shoot above 40.0% from three point range in their last five games but Florida has allowed their last five opponents to make only 26.1% of their shots from beyond the arc, they contest everything that comes from the outside and as long as they can contain the Wildcats shooting from downtown, they will win the battle on the boards and they'll find a way to score enough points with Lamb out and Liggins hurting.

The writing is on the wall if you ask me. The Wildcats limp into this Conference Championship Game knowing they are very young and knowing two of their best players are either OUT or hurting so for a team that has struggled so much on the road this season, that can't be good. Like I said earlier, look no further than these two teams and their spread records away from home to find experience and consistency, something you need to win Conference Championships. It's actually pretty rare for these two teams to meet in the SEC Conference Tournament but here we are. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus SEC Conference opponents and they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite on a neutral court. I talked about inconsistencies with a young Kentucky team and look no further than their 0-6 ATS record in their last six games coming off a spread cover the game before. That won't cut it in a game for all the marbles. They are also only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up win. Kentucky have struggled to beat Florida the last couple of years going 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings and with some of their guys hurting and not playing, I just can't back the Wildcats away from home. I've been going against them all year and gettin paid.

Florida minus the points.

And we all know what  THAT means.......

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ACC Tournament - Championship Game


North Carolina Tar Heels +4

I am shocked, baffled, stunned and just can't believe the line for this game. In what should be an epic ending to a trilogy between the only two teams who bothered competing in the ACC Conference this entire season, I have to say I'm excited to see this game. Would it be safe to say that a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament is on the line here and would it also be safe to say that Duke should not be favored by this many points after being manhandled by a much younger Tar Heels team only one week ago yesterday? I think the line is a bit jacked up because the Blue Devils are 2-0 ATS in the ACC Tournament and have blown away both their opponents while North Carolina are are 0-1-1 ATS in their two games and they came from behind in both games to pull out shocking wins but you have to understand the hangover the Heels experienced after beating Duke last weekend. Those games against Miami and Clemson meant nothing to them, they had no purpose, while Duke was still reeling from their loss last Saturday and it has showed in both their games. Now refresh the anything that has happened since last Saturday and here we go, the trilogy ends tonight and someone is getting that #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I'm telling you right now that neither one of these teams performances this week in this tournament means anything and let's not forget what State we are still in right now, which makes this the perfect Championship Game and a perfect way to head into the Selection Sunday show tonight.

I hope most of you are aware that Duke, despite their two wins this week, are not playing good basketball and they have shot only 42.7% from the field in their last five games. You have to give credit to both teams defensively because they have been tremendous and for the Tar Heels it's their defense that got them in this Championship Game before anything Harrison Barnes and company did on offense but if the Heels have a weakness is getting guys out on the perimeter and defending against teams who move the ball well. I saw too many open (non-contested) three point shots made by Clemson and Miami and it has been a problem but DUKE IS SHOOTING ONLY 25.8% FROM THREE POINT RANGE THE LAST FIVE GAMES and that's just not going to work. One thing North Carolina can't do is win this game from the perimeter where Duke is actually a very good perimeter defensive team and their last five opponents have made only 28.2% of their three point shots. At the end of the day this game is going to be won inside, with size, with power and with the will to win. Duke have had all sorts of problems against bigger teams allowing 36.2 rebounds per game in their last five games now and those struggles are exactly why I can't see them beating the Tar Heels, a team that averages 37.8 rebounds per game their last five games and who have some of the best young bigs in the Nation. Poor free throw shooting by North Carolina might keep this game close but at the end of the day, the Tar Heels have the Blue Devils scared after last Saturday and they'll win this game by dominating the boards and putting away second chance opportunities. Duke can't handle the size and right now they can't make shots from the perimeter. Recipe for disaster.

Both the home teams won in their two meetings this season and believe it or not it's actually rare that both North Carolina and Duke reach the ACC Conference Championship Game and face each other. The reason for that being that they are both automatics heading into the Conference Tournament and they don't usually feel the need to prove anything else but a #1 seed is on the line tonight for Duke (mostly, still not sure if North Carolina would get one) and Duke has to be somewhat upset at the bitch slap they took last week but I don't see what has changed since. I'm done betting on North Carolina against bad teams, which is why I went against them when they played Miami but the Heels are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600% and they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a straight up winning record on the year. North Carolina is a young team but they are not like other young teams (Kentucky comes to mind) and they have proven their worth in recent weeks. In my opinion they have the Blue Devils scared and their size and ability to make things happen around the basket is a huge reason they should win this game and I'll put my money on it right now. I love the Tar Heels to cover the spread and win the game straight up.

North Carolina plus the points.

I like the Florida pick!  GL

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Big Ten Tournament - Championship Game



Penn State Nittany Lions +10.5

I don't know what happened my Buckeyes play yesterday but to tell you the truth. They were up by a comfortable double digits in the last two minutes of play and all they really had to do was draw out possessions and end the game and then I come back from who knows where and see they won by only six points. So based on that something tells me the Buckeyes are a bit lax in the way they close out games and there is no way Michigan should have been let back in like that. But Michigan was not a desperate team...Penn State is desperate. A bunch of things could happen today. If Dayton beats Richmond like I think they can, then another spot is gone in the NCAA Tournament because both those teams would get in and teams like Penn State would be on the outs. Keep this game close for Penn State and Taylor Battle gets his first and well deserved taste of the NCAA Tournament as the school's best player of all-time.

When it comes to offense, it's Taylor Battle or nothing for Penn State which is why they average 21.4 less points per game than Ohio State in their last five games and they they shoot 43.5% from the field in those games compared to 49.4% for Ohio State but at the end of the day, Penn State reminds me of Northwestern a bit with their style of play. They can slow the game down to a snails pace, they can draw out long possessions and take opponents out of their offensive flow and that's just what Penn State did to Ohio State in their first meeting of the year in Columbus. Penn State have held their last five opponents to 56.2 points per game, those opponents have shot only 41.9% from the field and any team who can guard the perimeter the way Penn State can will have success against an Ohio State team shooting 48.8% from three point range their last five games. Also note that with the slower pace the rebounding advantage for the Buckeyes is somewhat removed because Penn State's last five opponents have brought down 25.6 rebounds per game and as long as Penn State can keep the pace slow, unlike their loss to Ohio State at home a week and a half ago, they will keep this within single digits and there is no way Penn State allows another 80 points to the Buckeyes. Not in this setting.

The theme in this game...DO IT FOR TAYLOR. No player has ever meant this much to the Penn State basketball program and believe nobody wants to see Battle have to end his career headlining the NIT Tournament, something they have already done and something they have already conquered by winning the damn tournament a few years ago. I think what the committee is going to look at in this one is whether or not the Nitts can hang with the best team in the Nation and I say if they keep this game close or keep it withing 5 points or less, they don't need to win to get into the NCAA Tournament but I know there will be some nervous people come Selection Sunday show if the Nitts lose this. Penn State is now 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a straight up winning record (only loss being Ohio State at home) and from what we have seen this season, the Buckeyes struggle to cover spreads as a favorite on neutral courts going 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite. Again if the Nittany Lions allow this game to speed up, they don't stand a chance against Ohio State but they have been slowing games down to their pace all week, they have everything on the line in this game and the points are just way too much. Taylor Battle will not allow his team to lose and if they do lose, it won't be by more than a few points.

Penn State plus the points.

Great stuff, let's do it and GL

I like all these plays; very substantive

Thanks Crown, good luck!

and I guess all the bickering about me running a website landed my threads in the website promotions forum? Come on guys, I already said I was willing to change my username if allowed to and that I only created this one for fun.

no point posting if I land in here.

There is also the issue of a previous username and what you did while posting with that one.

..... and SCENE