let's try to keep this positive guys - several posts are starting to enter that "no relevance to this discussion" territory
i don't think that you can say anyone who buys picks is an idiot(or sheep) - i think if you like to have action on games, but don't have the time to do the research, it is ok to buy picks from someone who has a documented long term winning percentage
is it that much different than letting your stock broker manage your money, reccommend you buy an IPO or a risky hot tech stock?
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let's try to keep this positive guys - several posts are starting to enter that "no relevance to this discussion" territory
i don't think that you can say anyone who buys picks is an idiot(or sheep) - i think if you like to have action on games, but don't have the time to do the research, it is ok to buy picks from someone who has a documented long term winning percentage
is it that much different than letting your stock broker manage your money, reccommend you buy an IPO or a risky hot tech stock?
let's try to keep this positive guys - several posts are starting to enter that "no relevance to this discussion" territory
i don't think that you can say anyone who buys picks is an idiot(or sheep) - i think if you like to have action on games, but don't have the time to do the research, it is ok to buy picks from someone who has a documented long term winning percentage
is it that much different than letting your stock broker manage your money, reccommend you buy an IPO or a risky hot tech stock?
No, it is no different. It is just the % of scumbags in the sports industry is greater then the investment industry
I know of a service that has a R.O.I of over 5.5% over more then 5000 bets over a few uears. Are they the evil scumbags?
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Quote Originally Posted by LongTermProfits:
let's try to keep this positive guys - several posts are starting to enter that "no relevance to this discussion" territory
i don't think that you can say anyone who buys picks is an idiot(or sheep) - i think if you like to have action on games, but don't have the time to do the research, it is ok to buy picks from someone who has a documented long term winning percentage
is it that much different than letting your stock broker manage your money, reccommend you buy an IPO or a risky hot tech stock?
No, it is no different. It is just the % of scumbags in the sports industry is greater then the investment industry
I know of a service that has a R.O.I of over 5.5% over more then 5000 bets over a few uears. Are they the evil scumbags?
4. Not only does vegas turn down action from winners, they turn down real action from just about anyone.
5. Im going to guess that you said a whale makes 20K a year, which is silly, but since you write in a different language Im not entirely sure what you said.
6. Why couldnt you win wagering and sell picks?
What a fucking moronic post.
Ahahaahahhahahaahhaahahahahhaahahahhahahahhaahah
Reading this made my whole day.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
1. Agree.
2. No comprende
3. 65%-68% - thanks for the laugh
4. Not only does vegas turn down action from winners, they turn down real action from just about anyone.
5. Im going to guess that you said a whale makes 20K a year, which is silly, but since you write in a different language Im not entirely sure what you said.
I have stood in line in Vegas and have seen first hand bettors be turned down. One time a MGM a player laid down a dime on N.C. in CBB they took it and then he said ok I want 3 more they turned him down why?? I do not know they know there sharps but there is always away around that. As far as touts not having any risks that is total B.S. the risk they take is the money they lay out for ads,people to answer phone, and all types of over head it is a business just like any other. Most touts are marketing gurus but there are a rare few who are good. Also look it like this if a tout has 100 players playing his picks at 100 a pop he has $10,000 riding on a game. Granted there are alot out there that do not give a damm. But there are risks being a tout. But the number one reason people do not make a living betting games is that 95% of all the players are losers over the long haul. If you can hit 55% you are the man. IMHO
Junk
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I have stood in line in Vegas and have seen first hand bettors be turned down. One time a MGM a player laid down a dime on N.C. in CBB they took it and then he said ok I want 3 more they turned him down why?? I do not know they know there sharps but there is always away around that. As far as touts not having any risks that is total B.S. the risk they take is the money they lay out for ads,people to answer phone, and all types of over head it is a business just like any other. Most touts are marketing gurus but there are a rare few who are good. Also look it like this if a tout has 100 players playing his picks at 100 a pop he has $10,000 riding on a game. Granted there are alot out there that do not give a damm. But there are risks being a tout. But the number one reason people do not make a living betting games is that 95% of all the players are losers over the long haul. If you can hit 55% you are the man. IMHO
i have followed some of the covers experts and they do go on good runs - for some reason i don't think you can find yearly or 5 year results for theor picks though - i have asked before about posting the long term records for Covers Experts, but it never happened, and nobody ever gave me a reason why
you would think a long term winning record would be advertised, since it would prove a lot to those wanting to buy picks - but again, for some reason long term records are not made available...
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macx
i have followed some of the covers experts and they do go on good runs - for some reason i don't think you can find yearly or 5 year results for theor picks though - i have asked before about posting the long term records for Covers Experts, but it never happened, and nobody ever gave me a reason why
you would think a long term winning record would be advertised, since it would prove a lot to those wanting to buy picks - but again, for some reason long term records are not made available...
I think their long-term records are not made available because they’re simply not all that impressive.The Covers Experts only advertise a particular handicapper after he has gone on a win streak.For example, on the Covers homepage it says “16-4 (80%) MLB Run!After back to back perfect days, Lee’s 80%, MLB Streak continues Tuesday.”The only problem is that the recent win streak gives zero indication that he’ll continue to be profitable today, and I’m willing to bet he won’t.
I’ve found several handicappers that keep detailed records dating back a couple of years, but I recently found reports on another forum that called the honesty of these records into question. One such report can be found here. Essentially, the handicappers only keep accurate and truthful records when someone has bought their picks, and for some reason, they never actually perform to the level that their records indicate.So when nobody is currently buying picks, they falsify their records to keep their long term winning percentage right around 58-59%.So then the next sucker comes along and starts buying picks, and the record drops once again.If anybody has had any experience with a service like this, I’d love to hear the story.
I think Vanzack said it best: “Their trade is not to win, their trade is to convince you that they win whether they do or not.”
0
LTP,
I think their long-term records are not made available because they’re simply not all that impressive.The Covers Experts only advertise a particular handicapper after he has gone on a win streak.For example, on the Covers homepage it says “16-4 (80%) MLB Run!After back to back perfect days, Lee’s 80%, MLB Streak continues Tuesday.”The only problem is that the recent win streak gives zero indication that he’ll continue to be profitable today, and I’m willing to bet he won’t.
I’ve found several handicappers that keep detailed records dating back a couple of years, but I recently found reports on another forum that called the honesty of these records into question. One such report can be found here. Essentially, the handicappers only keep accurate and truthful records when someone has bought their picks, and for some reason, they never actually perform to the level that their records indicate.So when nobody is currently buying picks, they falsify their records to keep their long term winning percentage right around 58-59%.So then the next sucker comes along and starts buying picks, and the record drops once again.If anybody has had any experience with a service like this, I’d love to hear the story.
I think Vanzack said it best: “Their trade is not to win, their trade is to convince you that they win whether they do or not.”
i agree, so wierd that long term winning percentages are not made public - i guess it is like you said, if the percentages were good, they would be made public
i know of another site too where they keep records and they are accurate, and there are some long term winners - people whose picks have shown a profit for several years - but i can't say that i have honestly tracked the picks for that long
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macx
good info
i agree, so wierd that long term winning percentages are not made public - i guess it is like you said, if the percentages were good, they would be made public
i know of another site too where they keep records and they are accurate, and there are some long term winners - people whose picks have shown a profit for several years - but i can't say that i have honestly tracked the picks for that long
The handicappers that I was referring to in my earlier post can be found at Handicappingpolice.com. Websites such as Oddsboard, Teddy Vintage, Capfox, Precision Picks, ATS Bets, etc. all claim to have monitored records, but the real question is who is doing the monitoring?Handicappingpolice, and its similar site Handicappingreviews, claim to be an independent party who supposedly separate the quality handicappers from the frauds.
I’ve tracked both Oddsboard and Teddy Vintage since January to see if they were legit before buying picks, and they seemed to check out ok.I’ve also combed the internet to see what’s been written (good or bad) about them and didn’t really find much until I came across that thread on SBRForum.
One of the problems with this industry is knowing who can and cannot be trusted.Should I trust a handicapper that claims his results are “monitored”, or should I trust someone who posts about a bad experience with a particular handicapper on a gambling forum?
So I decided to email Oddsboard.Here’s what I wrote:
I've come across some people who say you're service keeps false records. Is there any way that you could prove your record going forward by sending me tonight's picks just after the start of each game? If you could somehow legitimately prove that the experts on here are as good as their records indicate, I would be more than happy to pay for your service in the future. But at this point, it seems that there is just too much room for the records to be manipulated and inflated. Please prove me wrong.
Here’s what they wrote back:
Thank you for your interest in our service. As you know there are a lot of dishonest and gimmick type services out there.We are also aware that some people have made these same claims about us and our service. We do our very best not to listen or get caught up in them as well as this in by no means a get rich quick business. Our service is designed for long term success and anyone who makes a decision on 1 day or 1 week or even 1 month is missing the boat and will have a difficult time ever being successful at this. We pride ourselves on not only our professional experts but on our overall service. With that said we have a large base of satisfied customers that use and enjoy our service daily. We do not post early or during the games for a number of reasons from the fact that we do not maintain a working schedule to have someone available at all times to update the games to the fact that our system unfortunately does not allow us to update the games at anytime. In short, we invite you to try our service and allow the results to speak for us.
Thank you for your time and we wish you well,
0
The handicappers that I was referring to in my earlier post can be found at Handicappingpolice.com. Websites such as Oddsboard, Teddy Vintage, Capfox, Precision Picks, ATS Bets, etc. all claim to have monitored records, but the real question is who is doing the monitoring?Handicappingpolice, and its similar site Handicappingreviews, claim to be an independent party who supposedly separate the quality handicappers from the frauds.
I’ve tracked both Oddsboard and Teddy Vintage since January to see if they were legit before buying picks, and they seemed to check out ok.I’ve also combed the internet to see what’s been written (good or bad) about them and didn’t really find much until I came across that thread on SBRForum.
One of the problems with this industry is knowing who can and cannot be trusted.Should I trust a handicapper that claims his results are “monitored”, or should I trust someone who posts about a bad experience with a particular handicapper on a gambling forum?
So I decided to email Oddsboard.Here’s what I wrote:
I've come across some people who say you're service keeps false records. Is there any way that you could prove your record going forward by sending me tonight's picks just after the start of each game? If you could somehow legitimately prove that the experts on here are as good as their records indicate, I would be more than happy to pay for your service in the future. But at this point, it seems that there is just too much room for the records to be manipulated and inflated. Please prove me wrong.
Here’s what they wrote back:
Thank you for your interest in our service. As you know there are a lot of dishonest and gimmick type services out there.We are also aware that some people have made these same claims about us and our service. We do our very best not to listen or get caught up in them as well as this in by no means a get rich quick business. Our service is designed for long term success and anyone who makes a decision on 1 day or 1 week or even 1 month is missing the boat and will have a difficult time ever being successful at this. We pride ourselves on not only our professional experts but on our overall service. With that said we have a large base of satisfied customers that use and enjoy our service daily. We do not post early or during the games for a number of reasons from the fact that we do not maintain a working schedule to have someone available at all times to update the games to the fact that our system unfortunately does not allow us to update the games at anytime. In short, we invite you to try our service and allow the results to speak for us.
I’ve concluded that only way to actually know if they are as good as they claim to be is to purchase their picks for a length of time that might reflect their overall record.But there’s no way I would do that at this point in time.Buying that many picks would cost a few thousand dollars.It just isn’t worth it.
If anybody has had an experience with the handicappers on handicappingpolice, please share your thoughts because after what I read on SBRForum there’s no way I’d waste my time or money, and it might help somebody down the line.
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I’ve concluded that only way to actually know if they are as good as they claim to be is to purchase their picks for a length of time that might reflect their overall record.But there’s no way I would do that at this point in time.Buying that many picks would cost a few thousand dollars.It just isn’t worth it.
If anybody has had an experience with the handicappers on handicappingpolice, please share your thoughts because after what I read on SBRForum there’s no way I’d waste my time or money, and it might help somebody down the line.
I've always wondered why legimate cappers sell picks. From these posts the only reason that makes sense is to minimize risk. The capper would make enough money selling and lower his own bets to realize a projected profit over time.
Poor $ management is a distant second.
I can speak from my experience that even after being profitable from betting on sports. I somehow find a way to lose money in other forms of gambling. Blackjack and online poker are my two biggest vices and it has held me back. So I do understand that poor money management or lack of discipline could hold a good handicapper back. However, making money from selling picks just put more $ in these cappers pockets to mismanage.
I trully believe that ego has something to do with it also. Who doesn't want to be the guy livin the dream in Vegas? and then not only live it but tell everyone about how you're livin it. Think about what these guys do. They spend countless hours selling you on their own stats of how great they are. So and so is on fire! on a tear, unbeatable. Its an ego trip.
Here's a question though: does Vegas really limit your bets on sports? I've been thinking about leaving the offshore betting completely and setting up in Vegas but would they limit or ban a guy that is legitimately beating the books? Wouldn't they make $ on the rest of the public?
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I've always wondered why legimate cappers sell picks. From these posts the only reason that makes sense is to minimize risk. The capper would make enough money selling and lower his own bets to realize a projected profit over time.
Poor $ management is a distant second.
I can speak from my experience that even after being profitable from betting on sports. I somehow find a way to lose money in other forms of gambling. Blackjack and online poker are my two biggest vices and it has held me back. So I do understand that poor money management or lack of discipline could hold a good handicapper back. However, making money from selling picks just put more $ in these cappers pockets to mismanage.
I trully believe that ego has something to do with it also. Who doesn't want to be the guy livin the dream in Vegas? and then not only live it but tell everyone about how you're livin it. Think about what these guys do. They spend countless hours selling you on their own stats of how great they are. So and so is on fire! on a tear, unbeatable. Its an ego trip.
Here's a question though: does Vegas really limit your bets on sports? I've been thinking about leaving the offshore betting completely and setting up in Vegas but would they limit or ban a guy that is legitimately beating the books? Wouldn't they make $ on the rest of the public?
Yes we make money betting our own games. However do the math. My site samthemansports.com has 387 members. Multiply that by the monthly fee of $100, and your pulling in almost $40k per month. Plain and simple. But I will tell you that you have to do the research. You can't keep your members if you lose. I have 4 employees and all they do is research. I focus on volume and not charging my members all their profits.
Sam
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Simple answer:
Yes we make money betting our own games. However do the math. My site samthemansports.com has 387 members. Multiply that by the monthly fee of $100, and your pulling in almost $40k per month. Plain and simple. But I will tell you that you have to do the research. You can't keep your members if you lose. I have 4 employees and all they do is research. I focus on volume and not charging my members all their profits.
great to see someone who actually sells picks comment on this topic
i appreciate your insight, thanks for sharing
i checked out your site - not flashy, which i like - you seem to be more focused on quality picks as opposed to focusing on marketing, babes of the day, and hype
i was wondering, do you post your picks after the games start? are you monitored by any handicapping monitoring sites?
thanks again for the input
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samtheman,
great to see someone who actually sells picks comment on this topic
i appreciate your insight, thanks for sharing
i checked out your site - not flashy, which i like - you seem to be more focused on quality picks as opposed to focusing on marketing, babes of the day, and hype
i was wondering, do you post your picks after the games start? are you monitored by any handicapping monitoring sites?
I used to be monitored until i found out that they were selling my plays and posting them all over the net.
gmoritz35:
No doubt you have been burned. This is a sample scam that a lot of services use.
Lets say they get 34 calls for a "guaranteed play". They give 16 of them "Boston -4.5" and 16 of them "LA Lakers +4.5". Them charge each guy...lets say $50. So now they have pocketed $1600.
They could care less about the 16 that lose because they have the 16 winners hooked. Now they do the same with the 16 winners. They give 8 of them "Chicago -5.5" and 8 of them "Indiana +5.5" (Notice how the games they pick can't push).
Now once again they have 8 losers who they probibly will never hear from again. But they have 8 winners how think these guys are good....they cant lose! This time around they tell these 8 winners that if they want another "guaranteed winner" their going to have to send they $200 more. Most of them do it.
Now once again....4 winners, and 4 losers. Some of the 4 losers still think these guys are good and will still send them money. As for the winners (who are now 3-0) will do anything to get that next "guaranteed pick". Now the scam gets expensive......The service now tells these 4 winners "Ok....tonights a lock, but after we win again you need to send us some more money.
2 win and 2 lose and now the 2 winners are asked to send hundreds of dollars if they want more winners. This scam is vary popular and these scam-artist are making a killing. Some of the victims end up sending Thousands of Dollars after winning 10 or so straight games.
What my service does is simply sends all of my members the same pick. And to insure that.....I post the results daily on my website. Also....I never ask for more money no matter how much we win. I DON'T EXPECT TO GO 80% ALL YEAR IN MLB!!!
Our goal is simply to have a system that will win over the long haul. If you bet the SAME AMOUNT each game you will make a ton of money over the year.
SamTheMan
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LongTerm:
I used to be monitored until i found out that they were selling my plays and posting them all over the net.
gmoritz35:
No doubt you have been burned. This is a sample scam that a lot of services use.
Lets say they get 34 calls for a "guaranteed play". They give 16 of them "Boston -4.5" and 16 of them "LA Lakers +4.5". Them charge each guy...lets say $50. So now they have pocketed $1600.
They could care less about the 16 that lose because they have the 16 winners hooked. Now they do the same with the 16 winners. They give 8 of them "Chicago -5.5" and 8 of them "Indiana +5.5" (Notice how the games they pick can't push).
Now once again they have 8 losers who they probibly will never hear from again. But they have 8 winners how think these guys are good....they cant lose! This time around they tell these 8 winners that if they want another "guaranteed winner" their going to have to send they $200 more. Most of them do it.
Now once again....4 winners, and 4 losers. Some of the 4 losers still think these guys are good and will still send them money. As for the winners (who are now 3-0) will do anything to get that next "guaranteed pick". Now the scam gets expensive......The service now tells these 4 winners "Ok....tonights a lock, but after we win again you need to send us some more money.
2 win and 2 lose and now the 2 winners are asked to send hundreds of dollars if they want more winners. This scam is vary popular and these scam-artist are making a killing. Some of the victims end up sending Thousands of Dollars after winning 10 or so straight games.
What my service does is simply sends all of my members the same pick. And to insure that.....I post the results daily on my website. Also....I never ask for more money no matter how much we win. I DON'T EXPECT TO GO 80% ALL YEAR IN MLB!!!
Our goal is simply to have a system that will win over the long haul. If you bet the SAME AMOUNT each game you will make a ton of money over the year.
allright, sam, I'm gonna give you a shot. I just bet all of the prez's plays today minus the 700 unit on tb becasue I missed the start of the game. I can see it already. He's going to end up up today and I'm gonna lose because I missed the win on TB. I'm calling your place now... gonna bet a straight 1000 a play until I lose 10 grand then I'm gonna have to quit.
greg
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allright, sam, I'm gonna give you a shot. I just bet all of the prez's plays today minus the 700 unit on tb becasue I missed the start of the game. I can see it already. He's going to end up up today and I'm gonna lose because I missed the win on TB. I'm calling your place now... gonna bet a straight 1000 a play until I lose 10 grand then I'm gonna have to quit.
Why does Warren Buffet continue to get paid for his stock picks when he is already a billionaire? Does he need the money? No! But he is good at what he does and has a proven track record and, therefore, deserves to be paid. It's called free enterprise! Welcome to America! It's a beautiful thing!
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Why does Warren Buffet continue to get paid for his stock picks when he is already a billionaire? Does he need the money? No! But he is good at what he does and has a proven track record and, therefore, deserves to be paid. It's called free enterprise! Welcome to America! It's a beautiful thing!
You leave out some important human tendencies or traits that guide people to do what they do, its called ego (striving for recognition); if you can make wagers and win money AND sell picks to people so they WIN money (rather than lose it) why wouldnt you do it? Or at least try to?
Its called capitalism.
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You leave out some important human tendencies or traits that guide people to do what they do, its called ego (striving for recognition); if you can make wagers and win money AND sell picks to people so they WIN money (rather than lose it) why wouldnt you do it? Or at least try to?
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65%-68% - thanks for the laugh
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