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I was given a method for NFL games and I was asked to improve it. After some trial and error I was able to complete 99% of the method. It is based on comparing passing and running yardage. We ran it for 10 years and we the results are excellent. We were able to get proper numbers on most of it but when a team is dominant in the running game we need to study how to use that info..I will have the answer soon but it needs some work.
Here is how it works
We compare team A's stats with team B's stats.We give double credit for passing stats. When we get a final number for each team we divide that number by 24 and then add home team advantage.
example from last week
New Eng passing was -5 on average to the worse against their previous 9 opponents. That is doubled to -10 They were +33 in the running stats. We now add-10 and +33 for a total of 23.
Jets were -15 passing, we double that to -30. running stats were +47 -30 plus +47 = +17
New Eng is a +23 Jets+17 .The differnce is only 6. We divide 24 into that. We get .25. We round that to 1/2 point advantage N Eng. We add the home team advantage to that. In this case it would be only 2 (see bottom) New Eng should be a 2 1/2 point favorite. They were a 3 1/2 point favorite. Spread is off by 1 favoring the Jets. That is not significant.We will be looking for spreads that are off by 3 1/2 or more. The next game is significant
Houston +65 passing -23 running.We double the passing to 130 plus -23 or +107
Indy +51 passing -65 running. We double the passing to 102 plus -65 = 37
107 minus 37 = 70 advntage houston. We divide this by 24. Rounded off it = 3. Houston is 3 better than Indy on a neutal field. Home advantage to Indy is 4. Indy should be a 1 point favorite. They were a 9 point favorite. Houston is a 8 unit play.
There were 5 games that were off by 4 or more this past week.
Hous 8 won
S F 5 won
N O 4 1/2 won
Ariz 4 won
Atl 4 lose
We will not play on teams that lost to the spread by 4 or more in their last 2 games nor play against teams that won to the spread by 4 or more in their last 2 games. There are exceptions but I do not want to get into that for now. They are common sense reasons though. When a team shows these characteristics and they are favorable to the pick then add 4 on to the final total. Ariz and San Fran would move up to 8 unit and 9 unit plays .
This is a very strong primary factor and our research says that a 10 year history has hit well over 60% of the time.
Home team advantage is on average 5 1/2 in the NFL. That is on average and you must treat distance into the equation
Short travel is only 4
intermediate 5
long 8
east to west& vice versa 10
This weeks games
Houston 7
St Louis 4 both teams cold
Ariz 9 New York is hot though
Indy 4 This is much stronger than that- Indy is contending and needs to win ,San Diego is not + Revenge Indy.
Best games- Houston and Indy - No play Ariz - St Louis?
The double the passing game in college may not work. We have not studied it.
We start using this from the 3rd game forward.
My original posting is superceeded by this.
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