Friday's Plays

Opened at -1 now -2.5, there is your movement

Joe - last 11 years lines 120 or less are hitting 81% to under -- so pretty close

GREAT INFO.

Nice.  I spent part of my time as a kid in Anaheim and still play ball down in that area still.  Here's to hoping that USC doesn't let down after making the tourney.  I hope they traveled well too.

I put a half-unit on the over. Think they'll trade shots for a bit...enough to at least put it over.

I'm not sure if you guys have heard of a tout named Indian Cowboy.  Rumor has it that he used to be on Covers for free then went tout.  ANYWAY... even as a tout, I respect his plays.  And it looks like he's on the other side of me:

Let me start by saying there is a lot of shady things going on today in college basketball. For starters, the Stephen Austin vs. Syracuse line opened up at +14.5 and has moved down to +11.5 despite 80% of the public on 'Cuse. Uh oh. Furhermore, nearly 90% of the public is on Louisville and yet the line hasn't really budged from -21. But, that is neither here or there, we roll with less public plays and where we feel we have a nice edge. This is why we are boring doing 1 POD per day but that is what works for us. We are 2-1 on the week as we look to go 3-1 today with the winner on BC. If you are looking for another solid dog today, take a look at Cleveland State as they a sound team that beat Syracuse Outright on the road +13 (my dec cbb gom). As per this game, I like BC and the ACC more than Southern Cal. Remember what happened yesterday with Maryland vs. Cal? The ACC folks is just stronger this year and although there are some great teams in the Pac-10, I think the second tier ACC is better than the second tier Pac-10. Yes, despite USC winning the Conference Tourney, they are second tier to me as they are not top 10 in the power rankings. Remember, I was on USC over Arizona State and we were greatly helped by the home court advantage basically. Well, good-bye home court advantage. This BC team nearly defeated Duke and lost by 1 point. They had several chances to win and failed. But, this BC team is chock full of talent and shoots 73% from the line while USC shoots just 66% from the line. This BC team is the same team that defeated UNC - at UNC. How good is that? Southern Cal is a good team that is extremely well coached. Heck, they lost to Oklahoma on the road by 1 point. But, this team has been very protected as per road games. This team played in two neutral sites and lost to both Missouri and Seton Hall. The Conference Championship was not neutral imo nor was it a road game as this was on their court. On the road, this team has played just 9 games. Out of those 9, this team has lost 8. Yes, this team is 1-8 on the road - granted, the one game they did win was against Washington State 46-44. I think BC will give USC plenty of problems today and I think this game will be similar to LSU vs. Butler in many ways. It will be a tight contest, but I like the better conference, the better free throw shooting team, the team that has faced far tougher road and neutal court challenges (beating UNC on the road), the team that was 1 point away from defeating Duke as they had a couple shots late to win it all, and the team that comes off the Conference Tourney compared to the team that won it with their home crowd behind them.

With you guys on Utah. Rumor has it that it was getting steamed, but I haven't seen it move off of the -1 line.

Don't get the wrong idea, I'm not promoting IC or anything... but I thought the write up was informative and wanted to share.  Everyone should have as much information as possible.

I have a play on USC already but may buy it back... not 100% sure.

His NBA play is the raptors.  If anyone is interested in that write up I can post it as well.

Welcome to the thread buddy.  Here's my thoughts on that OSU line.  It initally jumped out at me too as a potential under play.  BUT...

		NCAA Last 5 Avg	Ohio St.
	Offense	Defense		Offense	Defense
Points 1st Half 2nd Half	79.4 37.2 42.2	72.2 34.4 37.8	68.0 31.5 35.8	63.2 29.6 33.6	59.4 25.8 33.6
Avg Margin	7.2			3.8
Field Goal % FG Made FG Attempts	47.3 31.6 66.8	44.3 27.8 62.8	43.7 23.9 54.7	49.6 22.2 44.8	37.7 20.8 55.2
3 Point % 3P Made 3PAttempts	37.5 6.0 16.0	33.1 8.4 25.4	34.5 6.3 18.2	44.0 6.6 15.0	31.5 7.8 24.8

Look at the amount of shots that Sienna takes and let's other teams take.  If OSU decides to run with Sienna in the 1H, they could pile it on quick. 

Also, the books have already set the lines for a slow start.  Total for game (141.5) and 1H (65.5).  Usually, with a 141.5 line, you'd see a 66.5 or 67 line.

Just my two cents...

Joe...what do you think about the point being made that the public is all over Sienna and yet OSU is practically playing at home? Think it's worth .5 or 1 unit on OSU?

IC is pretty solid.

4 Unit Play. #804. Take the Toronto Raptors -1.5 over the Charlotte Bobcats (Friday @ 7pm). Glad we were able to cash with the Hawks yesterday to go 3-1 on the week in the NBA. Let's get a winning day today as we look to go 4-1 and secure another winning week. There are many games out there with value today including the Pacers at home where they play well (but Dallas off a loss though), or the Clippers healthy + revenge against Pistons team getting 7 points without Iverson, Hamilton, or 'Sheed (the backups played great at houston though), or the Nets with revenge against the Heat with possibly no Wade (although the Heat backups played well and I just don't trust the Nets) and finally the Warriors with revenge against the Sixers who are back at home after playing solid against the Lakers (but Philly off a loss). So, that brings us to our play - the Toronto Raptors. We get the Raptors who just played the Bobcats back on Mary 16th and lost 112-86. I mean this team got their tails handed to them from the opening tip. This was b/c Toronto had beaten the Bobcats earlier this year by a score of 93-86. The Raptors are healthy for the most part now and they like the crew they have assembled. This team has Bosh, Marion, Parker, Bargnani, Calderon, Parker, Monsu-Bonsu and Kapono who can all step up. I like the Bobcats coming off big wins over the Kings and Raptors as the last game the Raps played were against the Bobcats a few days ago. Obviously, this team has had a sour taste in its mouth for the last 3 days. I expect Toronto to play well toda, at home, bouncing-back after the loss to Charlotte with revenge the other night, this team did beat Indiana and Minnesota at home and Charlotte did lose to Minnesota on the road - although they have won their last 7 of 10. Nevertheless, even though we don't have the team competing for a playoff spot, we have a team that has pride, at home and is 4-0 ATS as a favorite while the Bobcats have had an easier schedule of late and are 2-5 ATS as underdogs. We'll take the Raptors to come out fired up this evening.

joe - where do you get this grid from? seen several people post with it

 

thanks

It's on covers.  Just go to the scoreboard section and click on matchup.  Look at overall and last 5.

My numbers show a 49/51 split.  The only interesting thing is the line movement from -3 to -2.  The thing that worries me about OSU is that it relies pretty heavily on Evan Turner.  If he has a cold shooting night, they could be in trouble.

Here's Sienna:

Player Statistics

Kenny Hasbrouck	G	33	30:24	.419	.363	.667	3.2	97	66	6	71	60	14.8
Edwin Ubiles	G	33	33:04	.492	.279	.633	4.8	71	46	33	84	43	14.6
Alex Franklin	F	33	31:36	.571	.000	.612	7.3	28	44	24	73	94	13.6

OSU:

Player Statistics

Evan Turner	G	32	36:00	.505	.391	.785	7.0	123	56	25	112	93	17.1
Jon Diebler	G	32	36:19	.432	.427	.800	3.5	80	34	10	52	41	11.4
William Buford	G	32	29:09	.452	.368	.896	3.7	35	28	12	38	45	11.3
David Lighty	G	7	32:51	.471	.263	.536	5.7	13	10	2	13	14	9.7

Diebler is a great outside shooter, but he's not really capable of creating his own shot. 

so what is your pick for the 7 pm games joe???

Hey joe...any system plays for the 7PM bank of games?

Okay, Indian Cowboy scared me too much.  I'm buying back my USC play. 

I'm locked in for the following:

Under 121 in wisky game (.5 unit) will buy again if it moves up

Over 133.5 AZ game

Utah -1

I would suggest that you don't tail blindly.  These are not system plays.