Fade The Langster System

Brandon Lang

25 DIME - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - (if 3 you buy to 3 1/2, if 2 1/2 you buy 3. Make sure you get 3 to 3 1/2 if you can.) - I have a home underdog playing for their season against a foe they are very familiar with. Points are at a premium.

So many times the NFL season is about motivation. Who has it and who doesn't.

For my dollar, 100% of the motivation of this football game falls squarely on the shoulders of this Jags team.

Win and playoff hopes are alive. Lose and for all intents and purposes your season is over.

The blood, sweat, and hardwork you put forth all year long comes down to one home game against your arch rival who you always play tough.

The Jags are 7-2-1 ATS last 10 versus Indy. They played them very tough week one and most certainly will play them tough here.

Trust me folks, this Jags team has buried me. They did last year at home against the Steelers, and earlier this year at San Francisco.

But I won't let that take away from the 100% belief they are the right side of this game and I am going down swinging on what I feel is the right side.

Let us first start with the fact that the Jags have only lost back-to-back games once this year and that was their first 2 games of the year against Indy and the Arizona Cardinals week 2.

While Indy will rest injured players most notably Freeney and Mathis, only their two best pass rushers, the Jags get back their 2 best defense players in Rashean Mathis and John Henderson.

I have made big money with the Colts this year. They were my 75 dime winner over the Ravens. They were my 40 dime winner over the Broncos last week. They were a 15 dime winner over the Patriots.

However they are in a really bad emotional flat spot here facing a team playing in front of their biggest crowd of the year playing for season and I am getting points.

It's no secret the Jags are a terrible home favorite as evidenced by their 2-12 ATS run last 14 time laying points at home but they are not the favorite tonight, they are the home dog.

The Jags have been a home dog twice this year and they took care of business in both contests.

They were catching 3 from the Titans and blasted them 37-17, and they were catching 2 from the Texans and took care of them 23-18.

People, all things considered, I just can't see the Colts matching the intensity the Jags will have in this game for 60 minutes after accomplishing every regular season goal they had to start the year.

Division title. First round bye. Homefield advantage to the Super bowl. Mission accomplished last week over Denver.

After this game the Colts have a home game versus the physical Jets #1 defense and #1 run game in the NFL then go to cold Buffalo to finish the season.

If you accept the fact 16-0 was never a goal and isn't something they are hanging their hat on, it is then you realize the home dog is the play in this game tonight.

NFL is about intensity. Who has it to start with, who can match it and who can sustain it for 60 minutes.

The intensity for this game across the board is with the Jags and I will grab the 3 1/2 points with the home dog against an opponent they are very familiar with and comfortable playing against and covering against.

I've always said for whatever reason the Jags matchup well with Indy. They did in week one and they will here tonight.

Last point. The last 6 times Indy has tried to sweep the Jags in the regular season, they are 0-6 ATS. That is good enough for me.

Call this "Custard's Last Stand" and I will call for Jacksonville to fair a bit better than good old Custard did against the Indians.

FREE SELECTION - NEW YORK KNICKS