You will be fine, as you came back with a vengeance after a few losing selections, a short while back. 
You must have missed these long discussions earlier in the thread.
All gut. No stats models, no predictive models, no line setting formulas.
I don't think it is possible to win longterm betting in to -110 and having limited outs with only subjective game selection. That was the whole discussion way back in the thread. CG has been doing well, but after a month he is almost even with his living expenses - rounding numbers he is up about 5k and he stated his monthly nut is about 3k.
Once again - not to criticize - but if you read his write-ups on why he is taking a team - it says things like "I don't think the Suns are that good. They play matador defense" and "Spurs have won 3 in a row and although the Nuggets have won two in a row they r going to get disgraced by the world champions tonight ". Not exactly a statistical or tactical masterclass.
Maybe he is not in to write-ups (Im not really either), so I give a pass there. But he has openly stated that he only bets the major conferences (in college), and comes up with daily games by "studying" and then shopping for the best line.
I think his method is clear - he has been very honest about it - from the start of the process until the bet is placed. My opinion is that he does several things that will kill him longterm - from the method of selecting games, to limiting his outs by being in vegas, to always having 1-3 games per day (thinking in terms of days and having no objective way to qualify games if they are bettable), to betting at a specific time in the day (different each day, but not using any predictive line movement models), and finally not using anything but gut to drive the selections.
I just don't think it is possible to sustain that - but we will see. It certainly is entertaining along the way.
You must have missed these long discussions earlier in the thread.
All gut. No stats models, no predictive models, no line setting formulas.
I don't think it is possible to win longterm betting in to -110 and having limited outs with only subjective game selection. That was the whole discussion way back in the thread. CG has been doing well, but after a month he is almost even with his living expenses - rounding numbers he is up about 5k and he stated his monthly nut is about 3k.
Once again - not to criticize - but if you read his write-ups on why he is taking a team - it says things like "I don't think the Suns are that good. They play matador defense" and "Spurs have won 3 in a row and although the Nuggets have won two in a row they r going to get disgraced by the world champions tonight ". Not exactly a statistical or tactical masterclass.
Maybe he is not in to write-ups (Im not really either), so I give a pass there. But he has openly stated that he only bets the major conferences (in college), and comes up with daily games by "studying" and then shopping for the best line.
I think his method is clear - he has been very honest about it - from the start of the process until the bet is placed. My opinion is that he does several things that will kill him longterm - from the method of selecting games, to limiting his outs by being in vegas, to always having 1-3 games per day (thinking in terms of days and having no objective way to qualify games if they are bettable), to betting at a specific time in the day (different each day, but not using any predictive line movement models), and finally not using anything but gut to drive the selections.
I just don't think it is possible to sustain that - but we will see. It certainly is entertaining along the way.
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