Tough not to take.

After hours of thinking this match could go either way and todays play should be no play, I’ve come to this conclusion:

Sinner -4.5 @ -120

Sinner -2.5 1st Set @ +187

I wrestled with the fact that Sinner’s the fav with no experience against a guy who’s been here and done it. Been and done it with 50,000 people cheering against him. A guy who always thinks he can do it when the odds are against him. Sinner has the expectations as well as not knowing. That along with everyone and their mom now thinks Sinner will win and that can often lead to a mob mentality.

But how do you ignore how well Sinner’s been playing? He just beat Kachanov, Rublev and Djokovic without being broken once.

Sinner is better equipped than anyone Medvedev has had to face this tournament. Only if Sinner crumbles under the pressure and I think if he were facing an in form Djokovic or Alcaraz in the final, he’d be more likely to build doubt. Against a Medvedev whose been hot and cold all tournament, (he lost more points in his last two wins to get here!) I think this could be a 3-0 final if Sinner stays focused.

GL all.

Darren Cahill is a goat nominee for what he's able to do with raw talent,,,LFG Ginger Boy 

BOL  

Yeah man. LFG!!!

He’s destined this year all things considered. Be a sweet start to the betting year if these all come through.

If he’s got the first serve, that -2.5 line first set will drop to +125.

6-3, 6-2, 7-6. He’s owned Medvedev last few meetings and he’s never been this good.

Medvedev is more likely to cover the first set if he serves first. He likes the Dunlop balls when theyre new and could get a quick hold and steal an early break before they fluff up and then Sinner could break back to make it 2-1, but now he's behind the 8-ball. Ex: 

                 M vs S

Med serve   1  -  0

Sin serve    2  -  0 (break)

Med serve   2  -  1

**new balls**

Sin serve     3  -  1 (break)

Med serve    3  -  2 (break back because balls are fluffed from long rallies)

Sin serve     3   -  3

**new balls**

         ...

                   5   -   4

**new balls**

Sin serve      6   -   4 (break)

System play: Medvedev serving first in the set? Take Medvedev +1.5 in the set + over 9.5. 

I've never seen a tournament where the conditions played so much into it. It's going to be 84 F. Not ideal for Medvedev against a ball basher, but not ideal for Sinner against a creative player. I believe Sinner wins but in 5 sets.  

Medvedev is more likely to cover the first set if he serves first. He likes the Dunlop balls when theyre new and could get a quick hold and steal an early break before they fluff up and then Sinner could break back to make it 2-1, but now he's behind the 8-ball. Ex: 

                 M vs S

Med serve   1  -  0

Sin serve    2  -  0 (break)

Med serve   2  -  1

**new balls**

Sin serve     3  -  1 (break)

Med serve    3  -  2 (break back because balls are fluffed from long rallies)

Sin serve     3   -  3

**new balls**

         ...

                   5   -   4

**new balls**

Sin serve      6   -   4 (break)

System play: Medvedev serving first in the set? Take Medvedev +1.5 in the set + over 9.5. 

I've never seen a tournament where the conditions played so much into it. It's going to be 84 F. Not ideal for Medvedev against a ball basher, but not ideal for Sinner against a creative player. I believe Sinner wins but in 5 sets.  

Medvedev is more likely to cover the first set if he serves first. He likes the Dunlop balls when theyre new and could get a quick hold and steal an early break before they fluff up and then Sinner could break back to make it 2-1, but now he's behind the 8-ball. Ex: 

                 M vs S

Med serve   1  -  0

Sin serve    2  -  0 (break)

Med serve   2  -  1

**new balls**

Sin serve     3  -  1 (break)

Med serve    3  -  2 (break back because balls are fluffed from long rallies)

Sin serve     3   -  3

**new balls**

         ...

                   5   -   4

**new balls**

Sin serve      6   -   4 (break)

System play: Medvedev serving first in the set? Take Medvedev +1.5 in the set + over 9.5. 

I've never seen a tournament where the conditions played so much into it. It's going to be 84 F. Not ideal for Medvedev against a ball basher, but not ideal for Sinner against a creative player. I believe Sinner wins but in 5 sets.  

Sorry for the triple post. My chart has 7 breaks in the first set which isn't likely, however, I was trying to illustrate how weird this final could get. 

I’m gonna feel like an idiot here if I’m wrong but…

when did they start changing balls before game 7?

cant wait til he dusts the russian lil biitch and his team off the planet 

They change balls only after the first 7 games, from there it's after every 9 games until the match ends.

@EuroPro

It’d be an amazing win for Medvedev if he pulls it off. 

I can’t see it though.

Sinner is looking so good. The way all past champions have looked. Low UFE. Tough to break. Mentally focused.

Medvedev’s been way more scrappy than he has in the past and I feel like he’s got to the finals on nerve. Sinner up to now has been tougher than everyone. Zverev those first two sets, great! But even he’s not in the same realm as Sinner.

I'm with ya...wipe off his wife's facial mole Enrique Iglesias style 

@packersbackers

I’m positive my Google News algorithm would have posted something if there was a change there. Been like that since the 80’s.

dude agreed. may sound fuking crazy. i think hes so overated lol medvedev. be back with my challenger god picks tomorro and doubles picks. gonna start a thread. they love me over in the golf forum, hopefully here too with my winners 

Hahaha… Cheers dude. Lets make some money watching sports. I’ll tail ya with my earnings here if I hit.

LOL lets rise pack. good to be back! you get so much hate on here man.. people dont like winners they do in the golf forum tho good dudes over there 

@EuroPro

Today's troll world gets triggered if you don't win 100u in a week...bunch of sad pathetic broke ass losers...i love it when they chirp as I'm cashing wagers...they can't do shit so they turn to acting like women.

Did you catch Dulap last week as the amateur winning? The Frenchie today? All these dog longshots on the courses have been insane this month,,,shame the mainstream media haven't been able to gain betting market momentum with golf sports wagering to the masses.

Keep up your winning ways Sir ,,,I'm a loyal lurker of yours 

no favorite covers in every semi or finAl what ive realized stayed away

Easy over