Selling some games

Sinner/Baez U30.5 Games

Khachanov/Machac O36.5 Games

Parlay @ +175

Baez has made some positive adjustments to his Hardcourt game, making drives a little earlier in the rallies. This is new for him but it’s yielding positive results. Fading him might be dangerous this year on hard. With that said, Sinner is looking like the early AO 2023 tournament winner. He looks like the guy to beat and despite Baez’s progress, this should still be a heavily one sided fight. I’ll be surprised to see Sinner not win by 1 break per set and those breaks happening early since baez’s second serve is still vulnerable.

The line in the Machac/Khach match tells the whole story. This match should be a tight one despite the player history and rankings. Both guys serving well and winning lots of points on their first serve. Should be a 4-5 setter coin flip with a high chance of a TB in one of those sets.

Putting these two likely outcomes together for some decent plus money.

@AverageAllstar

 Congratulations nailed it.   Great post.  

Selling a couple more games to the books.

Kecmanovic/Paul O 33.5

Humbert/Hurkacz O 35.5

Parlay @ +110

Kecmanovic is definitely a live dog here at +220. Averaging just over 5 UFE per set, he’s playing very consistent. Can’t see either guy winning this in 3 sets.

Hurkacz has only seen 4 BP opportunities against his serve in his two matches, Humbert’s only been broken three times. Both these guys winning a very high rate of points on their service games, 58% of Hurkacz’s 2nd serve points won and 60% for Humbert. Won’t see many breaks here and 36 games is definitely reachable over 3 sets with the way these two are holding. Over their first two matches, 7 sets between the two of them have gone to 7 games.  6-4, 6-7, 7-5 7-6 kind of match.

@jvarghese

Kecmanovic/Paul O 33.5

Humbert/Hurkacz O 35.5

Parlay @ +110 

Sinner/Baez U30.5 Games
Khachanov/Machac O36.5 Games

Parlay @ +175 

I like these extended lines. Not a tonne of chalk to pay and I’ve been burned by 1-2 games so many times. Only a couple plays left most likely. Fingers crossed to keep this streak up.

Nice job sir 

Fritz/Tsitsipas O 36.5

Rublev/De Minaur O35.5

Parlay @ +122

This part of the tournament always reminds me of Bloodsports, Kumite. All the characters who were in the prologue have smashed their way through the movie extras and now the real battles begin. Who’s going to win? The huge sumo guy or the monkey raised coconut karate chopping dude!?!? Could go either way.

Looks like a couple 4-5 set matches to me here. De Minaur and Rublev looks like a match of breaks and break backs where as Tsitsipas and Fritz looks more like a whoever breaks first, takes the set. In both cases, it’s going to be tough to stay focussed. Fritz and Tsitsipas mentally, Rublev and De Minaur physically.

Oh yea… If Tsitipas isn’t scooting around fast with his chest puffed up in between points on his serve, take Fritz to win the set. It’s a clear sign of his confidence.

@AverageAllstar

 Where the heck are you getting these lines?

Draft Kings have F&T at 42.5 ?

@AverageAllstar

@larboy

Betano is what I’ve been using.

I think MGM might have alternate lines too.

Bet Rivers has alt lines.

If you want a referral code to Betano, let me know. We’d both get a bonus. They also have a 100% deposit match for initial deposits up to $500. Thats why I signed up but they have loads of interesting betting lines.

Congratulations and thanks for another parlay 

Might be the last one of these this tourney.

Fritz/Djoker O31.5

Zverev/Norrie O35.5

Parlay @ +152

Djoker had 105 UFE over his first 3 matches. I bet he used to make fewer UFE over the course of the entire tournament in his past Australian Opens. Fritz was razor sharp on his last match and he has experience now to know what to expect in this next match. This could be a battle if Fritz shows up believing he can win.

I thought Norrie looked pretty good against Ruud. Hit him off the court on many occasions. Zverev’s first serve’s super consistent and tough to gain control of the point over. It’s almost so consistent with such a high win rate, I don’t even know why he uses a second serve. Might see some TB’s here and I expect to see sets getting exchanged.

@AverageAllstar

 Thanks--Betano will not work for me

@larboy

 Bet Rivers has decent extended lines. I just double checked.

GL!

We gotta wait two days to get paid?  Lol

@jvarghese

 Sorry. It’s the only way to get it to plus money. 

You can wait for a winner, yea?

I was just busting your balls. I have so kinda of patience for winners and love everything you've done so far. Love plus money too. Good luck AAS. 

Meant to say "I have all kinds of patience..."

Taylor playing hard in the second. Let's get some , AAS.

Last Parlay for me.

Medvedev/Hurkacz O35.5

Sabalenka to Win AO

Sinner + 4.5

Parlay @ +412

No need for insights here. Medvedev & Hurkacz matches have hit a tiebreak 5/9 sets on hard court and considering all things I've seen this tournament, I expect the same. Sabalinka looks like a player from another tier as far as I can tell in the womans matches but I'm also shit at making WTA picks. This is about as comfy as I get betting WTA though. I think Sinner straight up wins against Djokovic but in parlays I take the extra margin on almost everything. +4.5 for Sinner will be a line rarely offered from here on out. That's a big line at decent money (-120) for that guy. He should be a slight dog or even money against everyone on hard court in my opinion right now.

Medvedev/Hurkacz O35.5 Locked this.

Sabalenka to Win AO

Sinner + 4.5

Parlay @ +412

Two legs to go.

Found one more play:

Medvedev/Zverev O35.5

Sinner/Djokovic Score after 4 games 1st set 2-2

Parlay @ +105

Medvedev/Zverev O35.5

Sinner/Djokovic Score after 4 games 1st set 2-2

Parlay @ +105 

Who had U 7.5 Games 1st set yesterday with Djoker? That woulda paid well.

Medvedev/Hurkacz O35.5 

Sabalenka to Win AO

Sinner + 4.5

Parlay @ +412

Last leg. Should be an ez W. Ya never know but gettin 4:1 on Sabalenka feels pretty good.

@AverageAllstar

Do you know what Medvedev ML was after the 2nd set? Or at its peak? I missed out on a chance to take him to equally hedge my futures between the 2 making the finals, old man bones fell asleep during the 2nd set,,,shame on me

@packersbackers

No. I missed that match as well.