Over/Under Betting in Tennis

What % of matches go over 22.5 when the favourite is between -150 and -200?

What % of matches go over 22.5 when the favourite is between -200 and -300?

and so on.

My guess would be that a larger percentage go over with a -110 than with a -300 fave....but maybe this isn't the case. If it is the case, then it would be worth looking at overs on the -110 faves and unders on the -300 fave if they are going to set a lot of the lines at 22.5.

Hi Livan

I hope you are well, I am more than happy to give you my opinion hoping it does help you out with your decisions and approach.

Those are some good questions you bring up and at least for today's matches I think I can give you the answer. If other matches do come up in the near future with other players you should be able to see the difference in the lines yourself.

First of all, I would start by saying that WTA and ATP are two completely different beasts when it comes to totals and that you shouldn't compare a WTA match total with an ATP match total when you are looking at the plays. Here is why.

Historically WTA players hold serve about 63% of the time while ATP players about 77% of the time. ATP matches see about 0.18 TieBreaks per set played while WTA matches sees 0.12 TieBreaks per set played.
A 14% serve holding difference is huge as you can imagine as well as having 6 TieBreaks more in a 100 sets scenario even though it might not look as a big number.

Thing is that ATP players rely on serve much more than WTA players do, therefore you have higher chances of a match being tight in men's rather than women's.
Let's say this is a general rule.



Now going in detail about today's matches you have Querrey vs Acasuso. Querrey is a player that relies on his service games a lot but he is still to improve his return games (even though lately he is taking some step forward). Matter of fact, if you look at the average stats for ATP players compared to him you will notice a big difference on both serve and return games:

Querrey holds 85.5% of the time but his opponents hold 80% of the time (average ATP is 76% for both obviously.) This means chances are that even if Acasuso is a class below him skillwise and on this particular surface statistically he "should hold" 8 times out of 10. This is good for 8 games, than you have to consider he is not a mug at all (he was a Top 20 player 3 years ago), he knows how to play Tennis and that he does return well (he wins 24% of the returning games just like ATP average) and there you have it.
This match statistically could easily end 7-6 6-4 with 2 breaks for Querrey and 1 for Acasuso but it could also end 7-6 6-3 with the same amount of breaks from each player if Querrey serves first in the 2nd set.
There is your gamble and that is why the line is right in between (7-6 6-4 is 23 games and 7-6 6-3 is 22 games)!

The other match between Verdasco and Andreev is very similar. Both players have an above average serve and return.
This means that the match could be tight, proof is these 2 fellas played 14 sets in 4 encounters and even though Andreev won 7 sets the h2h is 3-1 for Verdasco hence the odds difference.
Verdasco is the better player but this doesn't mean he will win the match in straight sets. Andreev has also a very bad record in third sets so while Verdasco should win the match relatively easy (even though the line is generous towards Andreev and I wouldn't play Verdasco at these odds) it doesn't mean the match could be tight.


Now let's take the WTA match as en example.
You have the line at 22.5 exclusively because you have Pennetta vs Wozniacki otherwise it would have been 21.5 or below, I can almost assure you this. Looking at the stats, both players hold serve and win return games with a higher % than WTA players (63%).

Pennetta holds 72% of the time and opponents hold 59% of the time while Wozniacki holds 72% of the time and opponents hold 55% of the time. So there you see a big difference on each one of them compared to WTA average. This might very easily be a 3 setter and the match could go well over the total but in WTA apart from a few solid players (these 2 are right up there but not yet to be considered very solid in my modest opinion) there is a player who plays the match of her life on Wednesday only to be atrocious on Thursday, this is what you get betting women and this match could go 6-3 6-2 for either one of them.

If you add to this one of the major tournaments is right around the corner and you don't know how players are approaching these matches, chances are in the long run you will lose your money betting on Totals.

I was a Total player but stopped because in the long run I wasn't profiting as much as I wanted to. I do sometimes throw a total bet these days but exclusively if I think a match will go 3 sets (therefore I bet the Over), this means that if I have an opinion on  a guy winning easily in straight sets I much rather bet him to win 2-0 sets rather than betting the Over the total, especially in Men's tennis because I got burnt in the past betting either Under or Over.


However, what I do advice, is you monitor the lines for the Grand Slams tournaments because the oddsmakers do some mistakes in those matches, because there are only 4 of those during the year therefore while on Best of 3 matches I consider it very hard to win in the long run because oddsmakers are just too sharp, I think that some occasions do arise in Best of 5 matches due to the fact that some players could "relax" in a 3rd set being up 2-0 or other players aren't used to play a Best of 5 and might look great for 2 sets only to struggle the next 2 sets. I hope it is not confusing.


I already have a Total play for US Open and can't wait to see the line for that one... It is Guccione vs Cuevas.   This match should fly over "any" total because neither one of those two players according to me is solid enough to win in straight sets, each of them has a great serve and both aren't very good in returning. I would expect this line at 39 or so which means that if each set is relatively tight (like it should be due to serve and return stats for each player) either one of the 2 could win in 4 sets and the bet would be a winner. We'll see.

In conclusion, house wins on Totals easily I would say. The sport of tennis is a rollercoaster and it is already hard enough to predict who will win the match. If then I have to guess in how many games he or she will do it, then it gets even harder. Of course some guys win a lot on Totals and could give you a different analysis, I think each fish has its own sea and maybe I am not cut out for betting totals because in the long run I wouldn't hit enough to win money.



I hope this made sense

Atp and Wta websites have very good stats!

this means that if I have an opinion on  a guy winning easily in straight sets I much rather bet him to win 2-0 sets rather than betting the UNDER the total, especially in Men's tennis because I got burnt in the past betting either Under or Over.

Please I don't understand by what% go over 22.5 when the favourite is 105 and 200.
 
What I noticed was that a lot of the time the over/under lines don't change a lot even when there is a big fave compares to a match that is considered a toss-up.
 
For example, today at my book I have:
 
Pennetta +104 vs. Wazniackia -113
Over 22.5 -110
Under 22.5 -106
 
Querrey -316 vs. Acasuso +285
Over 22.5 +100
Under 22.5 -116
 
Verdasco -310 vs. Andreev +279
Over 22.5 -109
Under 22.5 -107
 
The first match is nearly a toss-up, while the 2nd and 3rd have very large faves. However, all the Over/Unders are at 22.5 and there isn't a significant difference in the juice.
 
This would suggest to me that it might be profitable to look at the "Over" in matches that are considered toss-ups and look at the "Under" in matches with a large fave.
 
I know this is nothing groundbreaking, but I really thought that in matches with two evenly matched players you would see a much higher Over/Under than you would in matches where one player is considered significantly better.....after all, you would think a 50/50 match would have a much better chance at going to 3 sets than a match in which there is a large fave. It really surprised me that the lines do not suggest this.
 
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?[/Quote]