Musetti - Djokovic

So Djokovic have a crazy record on grass 130/23, and has won Wimbledon 7 times. He is a 1.13 favorite to win tomorrow so what do we think? Easy win for the goat?

I don't think so, Novak is now 37 years old, just had a surgery a few week back, I think he was very lucky that Alex withdraw and he got some extra rest. 

This year Novak is 22-6 he lost 20% of his matches...last season he was 58-8 (only 12% lose rate) so 6 loses in 7 tournaments (would have been 7, if he didn't withdraw before Ruud in French Open) so he still haven't won a tournament this year and we already in July. 

This year he has lost against: Nardi, Machac, Tabilo, De Minaur. Ruud & Sinner.

He also lost a set this year to Lehecka, Prizmic, Popyrin, Fritz, Musetti, Cerundolo, Fearnley & Poyrin.

How has he done this week, he have had a very easy draw.

Beat 123 ranked Kopriva in his first match, won 3-1 against 277 ranked Fearnley, won 3-1 against 47 Popyrin and now 3-0 against Rune.

Rune have not been good this year, only 26 wins 14 loses, he lost in the 1st round of Eastbourne and was down 0-2 against Halys so I don't think that match proves a lot. 

What about Musetti, h2h it's 1-5.

In their last meeting in French open Musetti was up 2-1 but Novak came back and took won quite easy 3-2 in the last two sets. 

In the last 3 years it's 2-1 to Novak but Musetti has taking at least one set 2 of the 3 matches. 

Musetti have been very impressive this grass season he is 12-2 and beat both Fritz in the last round and De Minaur in Queens. 

I'm very confident that Musetti will take at least one set here, the 22 year old is just getting better, and Novak is in a big decline from his old self. I can see Musetti win this, I don't think it was smart of Novak to get involved with the crowed, before the was in the backseat, talked about this surgery, talked about he wanted to win Olympic, said his knee was not good. 

so there was no pressure on him at all, all the big guys would take each other out and he would reach the final under the radar, now he has the spotlights on him again, the Italian crowed will try to get under his skin and you could see against Rune that there was time in the second set when Rune broke back from nowhere that he was not 100%.

So I can't see him be 100% all this game, I won't take the HCP as like we saw in French Open, he can on a good day easily win 6-1, 6-0 so won't take the spread. I can also see that Novak if his down 2-0 or something he would retiree, so I think the best bet here is Musetti to take a set. We seen him drop so many sets against random players all year and now against an inform Musetti, that know how to beat him will be full of confident. 

Should be two great matches tomorrow 

Anyone who thinks Novak will win in straight sets, please share you thoughts 

Honestly, I'm taking Musetti ML. 

He beat Novak last year in Monte Carlo.

Novak is also a year older and has knee problems.

@Bjorn_Borg

 Gr8 analysis.  Wowww. Thank you.

Do you have e analysis on med alaceaz ?

@Bjorn_Borg

 I would consider Musetti if he was a grand slam champion caliber player, he just had 5 set matches, with fritz and another one with Darderi, who is Darderi ? exactly:::))

to go against Djoko in Semifinal i don't think hes got enough energy, and wouldn't be surprised to see 3-0 Djoko.

just to get to semifinal and beat Fritz on center court is a big accomplishment already, and thats where it ends...

Not enough energy? Musetti is 22 years old. 

Do you even watch tennis?

@Bluejet777

 Let’s see what he’s got tomorrow )

I like the Over in this 

Look. Its a nice writeup and all but it all boils down to the same problem.  There are certain players you just dont bet against. If you want to take your chances with Musetti against a 24 time grand slam champion then go ahead. I promise you chances are it wont end well. This is another joker carlos final. Bet against either of these guys at your on peril. 

@pa2918

 Agreed ^^. Althoughhh I think medvedev has looked relaxed and very very good this tournament. It’s almost like he’s playing with less pressure as he’s accepted the new young talent is better than him. If his serve is on, he could certainly beat alcaraz. 

Sounds like a noobielicious.

Look. Bjorn not asking for a Musetti win but just to take one set. Repeat, one set. Novak can sweep but not bad taking Musetti at this price. 

@Bjorn_Borg

 This is a ?

@pa2918

 Yeah, I'm sure you would have said the same thing before their game in French open. The 2024 Novak is very different from the 2017 and even 2023 Novak. Last year he won 7 titles (3 slams). This year he haven't even been in a final yet and half the season is gone. 

Even 2023 when he reached the final here, he lost set against Ruble & Hurkacz and played very close sets (TB) against Cachin, Thompson and Wawrika.

In tennis escpially on grass where there are less break, you often win between 51-55% of the points not more, so it more about winning the right points. 

Roger Federer just won just 54% of all the points he played. 

@jvarghese

 Yeah, it's a  for me :) 

@Bluejet777 

@AI4life 

@RayRayK 

@Bjorn_Borg

 U think Medvedev can beat alcatraz.?

@AI4life

For sure, I have been more impressed of Medvedev than Carlos. 

Medvedev have had the toughest draw of all Struff, Dimitrov and Sinner all very good grass players. 

Carlos almost lost against Tiafoe... I think it will be a great match, I hope Medvedev win 

@Bjorn_Borg

 Thx for the reply. 

Let's go dogs!!..woof woof...gl 

Love. Good luck. 

Man Bjorg, this Tennis Forum might be the worst one in all of Covers Sports.

Medvedev is a hard court specialist who has played better on grass the last few years. Once Dirty Carlos got locked in, the match was over. 

Musetti is a Clay court specialist who has NO weapons to beat Novak. You want to out hit Novak in long rallies? Good luck Lorenzo. You want to hit backhand slices and get some nice points? Ok, that’s fine.

Novak and Carlos in the Final. Carlos should win. The only bet to make here is Over 40 games. Novak and Carlos each wins a Set. Am I missing something here?

@Moose1986

 I think Carlos will win as well, I don’t think it was the wrong read, Novak didn’t cover his spread and the over hit as well, was just the wrong bet.

Novak is so good on the points that matters it’s scary. At 5-5 30-0 to Musetti on Novak serve he hit 3 straight aces… before that game he hade 0 aces in the second set. 

Same story as soon Musetti broke, he broke right back. 

both players had 34 winner but Novak had 10+ more unforced errors. Can’t see him beat Carlos making so many errors.

@Bjorn_Borg

 Bjorg, only Covers Tennis person I will give any respect to. The changing of the guard officially happened today. It wasn’t Sinner at the AO, it was today. 

Alcaraz is probably worst on the hard court, which is scary. Total beatdown.