Posted:
#76
@bringit
I'm seeing 16-1 to win the Tournament.....can she beat Iga?
0
Montreal
Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
WARSAW Katerina Siniakova -3.5 (-120)
WARSAW Katerina Siniakova -3.5 (-120)
This was a very nice way to start the day. Kat just straight dominated from start to finish. DR of 1.5 which is nice against a player she was previously 0-3 against h2h.
Other encouraging stats for Siniakova (by my count): ONLY 1 double fault, 1 racket slam, 1 racket toss/flip, ZERO racket abuse warnings. I could have simply told you those stats and you would know she won easily lol.
I would highly expect her to outperform her market prices for the rest of the year. At least until she gets back into the top 50, then she'll stop caring about singles too much again. But gotta get that singles ranking back up to pay the bills with those automatic main draw entries at 1000s and 500s.
1
Posted:
#83
And yes, she can beat Iga. Amanda's playing style is actually the most effective way to beat her on fast surfaces. And I think it helps that it will be a semifinal match. I'm sure the Wimbledon final is affecting the futures market but I think most would agree that was not an accurate reflection of the difference in their abilities. That's the only thing that could explain Kessler and Kostyuk both being +2000 on Draftkings while Amanda is +2200. Kessler and Kostyuk are both much higher at other books though.
There is not a single player on tour who would have beat her last night IMO. I'm very confident in saying that. Doesn't mean she'll maintain that form but it's a good sign. It's also shocking that she's an underdog to Svitolina tomorrow.
Iga is probably deserving of being the favorite at +160 but a longshot future is all about finding value.
0
Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
I think this little pause is good for us. I see Kostyuk hitting a double fault when they start back to set up another break point.
I think this little pause is good for us. I see Kostyuk hitting a double fault when they start back to set up another break point.
true, kostyuk is an emotional player that needs to be out of her rhythm to be beaten. This distraction should be good for Kessler
No Gamble No Future
0
Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
@HuskyNation1 While you're at it why don't you go ahead and explain to us why Coco Gauff is the most overrated player in history.. You know, the 21 YEAR OLD who has TWO SLAM TITLES on two different surfaces and is literally the reigning YEAR END FINALS CHAMPION. Please inform us and give your excuses of how she somehow won the BIGGEST MONETARY PRIZE in history against the BEST players in the game.
@HuskyNation1 While you're at it why don't you go ahead and explain to us why Coco Gauff is the most overrated player in history.. You know, the 21 YEAR OLD who has TWO SLAM TITLES on two different surfaces and is literally the reigning YEAR END FINALS CHAMPION. Please inform us and give your excuses of how she somehow won the BIGGEST MONETARY PRIZE in history against the BEST players in the game.
Coco has looked absolutely terrible here in Canada 
. Your statements of GrandSlam titles is on point but then the extreme fall off(s) she's prone to do support the other side of this dialogue. Idk..we are all aware that "we play to the level" of competition (or tournament stage) so maybe that's what it is? If so...at least she wins when it counts! Just my two cents worth
1
Posted:
#98
@Jhizzle13
Yes, she has been terrible here. She's probably the most physically gifted player on tour but consistency is a major issue for her, mainly on the mental side of things. When she came out and hit 21 double faults in her first match here it was pretty clear she wasn't going to make a run. When she plays like that she doesn't tend to improve her level as the tournament goes on, she just uses her superior athleticism to squeak by opponents until that's not enough anymore.
And important tournaments are indeed what really matters and that is not unique to Gauff. A couple years from now literally nobody will remember who won the National Bank Open but they will remember the US Open champ. There was a stretch in the 3rd/4th rounds of the French Open this year when 24 favorites won in a row. You would never see that happen outside of a grand slam. There is a high degree of market efficiency in the slams because you don't have to wonder how motivated a player is. The toughest thing about betting tennis in smaller tournaments is trying to ascertain when players are motivated, healthy, and in a good place mentally.
I have never shied away from being critical of Gauff myself but I always come to her defense when people say things like she's "the most overrated top 5 player in history". It's not like the college football playoff committee gathered around a conference table and determined that Gauff should be ranked #2. Tennis rankings are completely merit based. You earn points from winning and you earn way more points from winning in the most important matches. So if you're ranked #2 it's because you earned it. She was hyped up from a young age so you could possibly argue that she was overhyped but then again look at what she's accomplished already at the age of 21.
One of the big reasons she gets so much hate is that people bet on her because she is supposed to be good and she blows up their parlay when she loses to someone she has no business losing to. But that is the bettor's fault for not knowing better. There are plenty of top 50 players to choose from who are waaay more consistent in mid-level tournaments than Gauff is. I personally very rarely bet on Gauff for the reasons I've discussed. But when I do bet on her I'm fairly confident that my winning % with her is higher than most other players I bet on. It's all about knowing when to pick your spots with her, which again is not unique to Gauff. This is true of all players to some extent and that's one of the things that make this sport so difficult to bet on week in and week out.
0
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
@bringit I'm seeing 16-1 to win the Tournament.....can she beat Iga?
@bringit I'm seeing 16-1 to win the Tournament.....can she beat Iga?
Well I guess this question is irrelevant now. Amanda is officially the highest ranked player remaining.
What's crazy is that if you look at her US Open future on Draftkings she is +2000... But I bet her to win this tournament at +2200 when all she needs to do is win 4 more matches in a tournament that was already missing the best hardcourt player in the world AND the top seed in her quarter (Pegula) had already been eliminated.
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