Great start! I might put a unit on Blake every round and roll it over. He sure hooked me up last night, ended up betting more than I had intended but it worked out in the end.
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Great start! I might put a unit on Blake every round and roll it over. He sure hooked me up last night, ended up betting more than I had intended but it worked out in the end.
Blake destroyed Haase as he was supposed to do, Karlovic struggled to go past Brands, saving a set point and achieving just one break point in 2 sets going through winning 2 TieBreaks.
The stats of this tournament tell this is a very slow surface, I think Blake with his return abilities can give Karlovic a very hard time, matter of fact he was made a -135 favorite. He also holds a 2-0 h2h lead against Dr. Ivo on this surface. If he can get a read of Karlovic's serve (as he did in the past) he should be on top of it as in all the rallies Blake clearly has the edge.
Last time they met in Shangai (quicker court) and Blake faced just 1 break point while recording 6 himself and was abe to contain Karlovic to 37% points won behind 2nd ball while Blake was able to win 75% of the points behind his serve (88% behind first ball and 54% behind 2nd ball). Karlovic did record 27 aces but sometimes if you can't win the rallies that is not enough, hopefully today will be a perfect example of this.
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Blake destroyed Haase as he was supposed to do, Karlovic struggled to go past Brands, saving a set point and achieving just one break point in 2 sets going through winning 2 TieBreaks.
The stats of this tournament tell this is a very slow surface, I think Blake with his return abilities can give Karlovic a very hard time, matter of fact he was made a -135 favorite. He also holds a 2-0 h2h lead against Dr. Ivo on this surface. If he can get a read of Karlovic's serve (as he did in the past) he should be on top of it as in all the rallies Blake clearly has the edge.
Last time they met in Shangai (quicker court) and Blake faced just 1 break point while recording 6 himself and was abe to contain Karlovic to 37% points won behind 2nd ball while Blake was able to win 75% of the points behind his serve (88% behind first ball and 54% behind 2nd ball). Karlovic did record 27 aces but sometimes if you can't win the rallies that is not enough, hopefully today will be a perfect example of this.
I am risking 4.2 to win 3 on blake -140. Nice last post TC. I also have the strange feeling Blake will get a read on Ivo's serve and be up to that challenge, though obviously he will also be aced many times. But I think there will fewer "dirty aces" than usual for a Karlovic match.
Only troubling thing to me in your last post was that Blake only won 54% behind second ball vs Karlovic, I wish it was over 70%, Ivo is horrible in most rallies. But I think he can improve on that. I think this is a good matchup for him.and that coupled with his back being firmly against the wall make this a worthy play IMO. I think I would have played it anyway but you being on Blake in your plan increasesmy confidence so GL.
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I am risking 4.2 to win 3 on blake -140. Nice last post TC. I also have the strange feeling Blake will get a read on Ivo's serve and be up to that challenge, though obviously he will also be aced many times. But I think there will fewer "dirty aces" than usual for a Karlovic match.
Only troubling thing to me in your last post was that Blake only won 54% behind second ball vs Karlovic, I wish it was over 70%, Ivo is horrible in most rallies. But I think he can improve on that. I think this is a good matchup for him.and that coupled with his back being firmly against the wall make this a worthy play IMO. I think I would have played it anyway but you being on Blake in your plan increasesmy confidence so GL.
Actually if you win 88% behind 1st ball and 54% behind second ball in the same match you should read that as a tremendous stat, especially if you are winning over 60% behind your opponent's second ball. The reason why I say this is because your opponent knowing he is hopeless on the first ball will try to go 'all in' while having 2nd ball chances and in almost all ATP circumstances that is 50/50 rate of success. :-)
Anyway, just take a look at the stats between Chardy and Giraldo.
Both players rely on their serve big time and yet it was a mugfest, both getting broken and both won around 60% behind 1st ball, unheard of for two big servers playing on hard court, that's more like a Clay court match. Look at Leonardo Mayer crushing Florian Mayer because I suppose he had plenty of time to charge his big forehand. I hate judging by the stats but I gotta come up with something when TV coverage isn't there.
Karlovic's serving stats are great and Blake does need to step it up however Karlovic is here winning 3 TieBreaks in 4 sets played against Petzschner and Brands, and Blake is craftier than both combined, if we add he should be motivated for what I wrote in the first post of this thread I think I can say I am confident he takes the match.
Also, for anyone that cares I already took Pico +128 vs Ferrero.
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Actually if you win 88% behind 1st ball and 54% behind second ball in the same match you should read that as a tremendous stat, especially if you are winning over 60% behind your opponent's second ball. The reason why I say this is because your opponent knowing he is hopeless on the first ball will try to go 'all in' while having 2nd ball chances and in almost all ATP circumstances that is 50/50 rate of success. :-)
Anyway, just take a look at the stats between Chardy and Giraldo.
Both players rely on their serve big time and yet it was a mugfest, both getting broken and both won around 60% behind 1st ball, unheard of for two big servers playing on hard court, that's more like a Clay court match. Look at Leonardo Mayer crushing Florian Mayer because I suppose he had plenty of time to charge his big forehand. I hate judging by the stats but I gotta come up with something when TV coverage isn't there.
Karlovic's serving stats are great and Blake does need to step it up however Karlovic is here winning 3 TieBreaks in 4 sets played against Petzschner and Brands, and Blake is craftier than both combined, if we add he should be motivated for what I wrote in the first post of this thread I think I can say I am confident he takes the match.
Also, for anyone that cares I already took Pico +128 vs Ferrero.
I wanna ask you a question about Blake-Karlovic game. A site called Sbrodds . com shows percentage of actions.According to this site, %86 of actions about this game are on BLAKE. Isnt it huge????? Should I be scared?
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I wanna ask you a question about Blake-Karlovic game. A site called Sbrodds . com shows percentage of actions.According to this site, %86 of actions about this game are on BLAKE. Isnt it huge????? Should I be scared?
I honestly don't care at all about line movements unless a fix or an injury is the reason why the odds move and in this case it is neither one of them.
I am also very wary of these % sites. If 98 people bet 100$ on Blake and 2 people bet 5000$ on Karlovic there is the same amount of money on each side but that site will inaccurately say 98% Blake and 2% Karlovic. Don't look at those sites, they will only mess with your head. Play what you like unless there is a massive swing in the odds because of a true tangible reason.
Also, what difference does it really make if you are betting with the public? Public wins sometimes and lose sometimes, if all public plays lost it would be very easy to make money just betting every side with less than 20% of the wagers, try that tactic and I think it won't really work
If I like a play and the odds offered I bet it regardless of how many people are apparently betting it (I say apparently because you don't really know those % are even accurate). The only way I reconsider is if there is a huge drift because of some injuries or fixes concerns.
That being said, remember that I have Blake as a 6 to 1 shot to win the title so considering he has won already his first 2 matches I am basically in this play by betting that he has 16.5% of winning his remaining 3 matches, I am not directly involved with the Karlovic match which I think he will win but still I wouldn't bet it large at -130 because even though I think he wins I tell you that's pretty much where the odds should be (57%).
I hope this helped.
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caglarue
I honestly don't care at all about line movements unless a fix or an injury is the reason why the odds move and in this case it is neither one of them.
I am also very wary of these % sites. If 98 people bet 100$ on Blake and 2 people bet 5000$ on Karlovic there is the same amount of money on each side but that site will inaccurately say 98% Blake and 2% Karlovic. Don't look at those sites, they will only mess with your head. Play what you like unless there is a massive swing in the odds because of a true tangible reason.
Also, what difference does it really make if you are betting with the public? Public wins sometimes and lose sometimes, if all public plays lost it would be very easy to make money just betting every side with less than 20% of the wagers, try that tactic and I think it won't really work
If I like a play and the odds offered I bet it regardless of how many people are apparently betting it (I say apparently because you don't really know those % are even accurate). The only way I reconsider is if there is a huge drift because of some injuries or fixes concerns.
That being said, remember that I have Blake as a 6 to 1 shot to win the title so considering he has won already his first 2 matches I am basically in this play by betting that he has 16.5% of winning his remaining 3 matches, I am not directly involved with the Karlovic match which I think he will win but still I wouldn't bet it large at -130 because even though I think he wins I tell you that's pretty much where the odds should be (57%).
One final word on Blake...I think it best to consider him on the downside of his career...he peaked, and then people have surpassed him as he has at best maintained, at worst declined in play
Darwin was not about survival of the fittest, he was about survivable of the most adaptive...and Blake has not adapted beyond nor deviated from his dedication to grip and rip.People have figured him out as well.
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One final word on Blake...I think it best to consider him on the downside of his career...he peaked, and then people have surpassed him as he has at best maintained, at worst declined in play
Darwin was not about survival of the fittest, he was about survivable of the most adaptive...and Blake has not adapted beyond nor deviated from his dedication to grip and rip.People have figured him out as well.
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