This match interests me the most as it's the closest to pickem of all the matches tomorrow. I'm not the type of guy that knows a ton about tennis.
I just know that Jabeur is a giant killer. The way she took it to Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon impressed me a ton.
I've bet Qinwen Zheng a few times before, and she's absolutely solid. I'm just not sure how she will fair against Jabeur who is really a top player with good power. Zheng has played well against solid players, but Jabeur will really be a test for her.
I was thinking about takin Zheng at the +120, but I may chicken out and pay the juice at -175 and hope she wins a set.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This match interests me the most as it's the closest to pickem of all the matches tomorrow. I'm not the type of guy that knows a ton about tennis.
I just know that Jabeur is a giant killer. The way she took it to Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon impressed me a ton.
I've bet Qinwen Zheng a few times before, and she's absolutely solid. I'm just not sure how she will fair against Jabeur who is really a top player with good power. Zheng has played well against solid players, but Jabeur will really be a test for her.
I was thinking about takin Zheng at the +120, but I may chicken out and pay the juice at -175 and hope she wins a set.
If Zheng wins a set it's likely that she'll win the match. So there's more value on the money line than to win a set.
After reading some commentary it appears the line being low has more to do with the way Jabeur has been playing, rather than how well Zheng has been playing.
Jabeur has only made th QF of the U.S. Open once, but it was last year when she made the finals.
If Zheng wins a set it's likely that she'll win the match. So there's more value on the money line than to win a set.
After reading some commentary it appears the line being low has more to do with the way Jabeur has been playing, rather than how well Zheng has been playing.
Jabeur has only made th QF of the U.S. Open once, but it was last year when she made the finals.
I'm thinking the line should be a bit higher for Zheng to just win a set considering how Jabeur has been playing. So I'm pausing on Zheng for the moment. Jabeur in straight may be the better play.
Either I looked at it wrong, or the line drastically changed since i started writing.
Zheng is -245 to win a set now, which is too expensive in my opinion. So the only play I will consider making on Zheng would be the ML, but I'm weary about her path to this point. It hasn't been too tough for her.
I'm thinking the line should be a bit higher for Zheng to just win a set considering how Jabeur has been playing. So I'm pausing on Zheng for the moment. Jabeur in straight may be the better play.
Either I looked at it wrong, or the line drastically changed since i started writing.
Zheng is -245 to win a set now, which is too expensive in my opinion. So the only play I will consider making on Zheng would be the ML, but I'm weary about her path to this point. It hasn't been too tough for her.
I know it's unrelated, but I'd feel better about Zheng if Pegula can pull off the comeback against Madison Keys. If not, I'd probably lean Jabeur but I dunno if I'd bet it.
I know it's unrelated, but I'd feel better about Zheng if Pegula can pull off the comeback against Madison Keys. If not, I'd probably lean Jabeur but I dunno if I'd bet it.
zheng has stamina issues will prob go at least 22 games, dont think either is serving well this tourney. who knows which player will be affected by nerves the most.
zheng has stamina issues will prob go at least 22 games, dont think either is serving well this tourney. who knows which player will be affected by nerves the most.
@slamspurs Care to explain how those two things are related?
They're not. I said in my original post "I know it's unrelated."
I think the Pegula Keys match was the only other match where the line was less than -200 on the favorite, and the dog won that one. So I just don't like the idea of taking plus juice on the other pickem match as well.
I read over some commentary, and Zheng is a very chic pic to win this match. Zheng hasn't beaten a top player for a while, maybe never. The line is just low because Jabeur has not been great this tournament. And that's not the style I like betting. I don't like betting based on how bad the opponent looked the last match.
She still beat Bouzkova, who is a very formidable opponent.
Zheng beat Kanepi, who at 38 is well past her prime. And Podoroska who is an above average player, but not a top one. And she beat Bronzetti who lost in the first round of 5 out of the last 6 tournaments. Just not a resume I'm confident in at the moment.
So again, the line is low because Jabeur has not been playing great (in terms of what she's capable of). It's not low because Zheng is anywhere near her level.
Quote Originally Posted by BigPell:
@slamspurs Care to explain how those two things are related?
They're not. I said in my original post "I know it's unrelated."
I think the Pegula Keys match was the only other match where the line was less than -200 on the favorite, and the dog won that one. So I just don't like the idea of taking plus juice on the other pickem match as well.
I read over some commentary, and Zheng is a very chic pic to win this match. Zheng hasn't beaten a top player for a while, maybe never. The line is just low because Jabeur has not been great this tournament. And that's not the style I like betting. I don't like betting based on how bad the opponent looked the last match.
She still beat Bouzkova, who is a very formidable opponent.
Zheng beat Kanepi, who at 38 is well past her prime. And Podoroska who is an above average player, but not a top one. And she beat Bronzetti who lost in the first round of 5 out of the last 6 tournaments. Just not a resume I'm confident in at the moment.
So again, the line is low because Jabeur has not been playing great (in terms of what she's capable of). It's not low because Zheng is anywhere near her level.
Why do you say that? I said she hasn't been playing up what she can do. And we all know the flu is crappy, but it doesn't stop you from playing. MJ had the flu, or food poisoning. Couldn't keep anything down. Still scored 38 points and won.
I think the most likely outcome is Jabeur in straights. The total is set at 22.5 with -125 on the under. But if it goes over I'd lean Zheng. I'm deciding at the moment, but I'm just a sucker for that +115.
@bkingsrep
Why do you say that? I said she hasn't been playing up what she can do. And we all know the flu is crappy, but it doesn't stop you from playing. MJ had the flu, or food poisoning. Couldn't keep anything down. Still scored 38 points and won.
I think the most likely outcome is Jabeur in straights. The total is set at 22.5 with -125 on the under. But if it goes over I'd lean Zheng. I'm deciding at the moment, but I'm just a sucker for that +115.
I ended up passing. I liked the under 22.5 games, but it was like -150 or something. I considered taking Jabeur 2-0 at +145 but ended up passing. Good thing I did. I would have been so mad if I bet Jabeur after liking Zheng and she won in straights.
Congrats to Zheng backers. She can beat anyone on a good day, but if she went up against Sebalenka's power, I don't think she could survive that.
I ended up passing. I liked the under 22.5 games, but it was like -150 or something. I considered taking Jabeur 2-0 at +145 but ended up passing. Good thing I did. I would have been so mad if I bet Jabeur after liking Zheng and she won in straights.
Congrats to Zheng backers. She can beat anyone on a good day, but if she went up against Sebalenka's power, I don't think she could survive that.
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