CH Sao Paulo | Gastao Elias - Thiago Monteiro (1.75) @ Bwin
Monteiro a 19yr old lefty very explosive from the baseline has has had some interesting wins this year but lack of regular competition at this level will prove to be an handicap for him. Not dominant on serve Monteiro has weapons to impose himself from the baseline against Gastao. But the Portuguese is experienced and can shape his game, something that can make Monteiro very erratic. Elias stamina is one of his best weapons and he is a fighter, will have to do some work to beat Monteiro but he can make the Brazilian harmless.
have a more in depth writeup at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
CH Sao Paulo | Gastao Elias - Thiago Monteiro (1.75) @ Bwin
Monteiro a 19yr old lefty very explosive from the baseline has has had some interesting wins this year but lack of regular competition at this level will prove to be an handicap for him. Not dominant on serve Monteiro has weapons to impose himself from the baseline against Gastao. But the Portuguese is experienced and can shape his game, something that can make Monteiro very erratic. Elias stamina is one of his best weapons and he is a fighter, will have to do some work to beat Monteiro but he can make the Brazilian harmless.
have a more in depth writeup at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
Elias' match has been postponed to tomorrow due to the rain. btw Elias odds are now at 1.90 in some places up from 1.75
ATP Tokyo | Kei Nishikori - Jurgen Melzer | Nishikori (1.28) @ 5 Dimes
Kei Nishikori. The 23yr old is God in Japan, #13 in the world rankings Nishikori has become a true superstar and this is his tournament. He is the defending champion, and has been preparing for this for awhile now. He’s been in Japan since the US Open and played to Davis Cup matches winning both 3-0. A 16-6 career record in matches played in Japan, which accounts for an outstanding 20.2% ROI.
WTA Beijing | Venus Williams vs Sabine Lisicki | Lisicki (2.32) @ Marathon Bet
Venus had the best week of tennis she's had in awhile last week in Tokyo. But she's not getting any younger, at 33 she's a shadow of what she was. Given her genetic condition and her less than ideal fitness one can find value by fading her. Lisicki at this price his worth a shot, she can be very solid serving and has what it takes to beat Venus. Plus how knows how the american will be feeling tomorrow?
there's a slight more in-depth write up for Nishikori in my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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Elias' match has been postponed to tomorrow due to the rain. btw Elias odds are now at 1.90 in some places up from 1.75
ATP Tokyo | Kei Nishikori - Jurgen Melzer | Nishikori (1.28) @ 5 Dimes
Kei Nishikori. The 23yr old is God in Japan, #13 in the world rankings Nishikori has become a true superstar and this is his tournament. He is the defending champion, and has been preparing for this for awhile now. He’s been in Japan since the US Open and played to Davis Cup matches winning both 3-0. A 16-6 career record in matches played in Japan, which accounts for an outstanding 20.2% ROI.
WTA Beijing | Venus Williams vs Sabine Lisicki | Lisicki (2.32) @ Marathon Bet
Venus had the best week of tennis she's had in awhile last week in Tokyo. But she's not getting any younger, at 33 she's a shadow of what she was. Given her genetic condition and her less than ideal fitness one can find value by fading her. Lisicki at this price his worth a shot, she can be very solid serving and has what it takes to beat Venus. Plus how knows how the american will be feeling tomorrow?
there's a slight more in-depth write up for Nishikori in my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
A chronic loser at this tournament where his best result is a second round, counting many first round losses. He is 5-10 in matches played on home soil, career record of 51-46 on Indoor Hard for a -18.3% ROI, -15.9% in his last 50 matches. He has some power which is useful playing Indoor, but he is very erratic, not dominant from the baseline and can’t serve well consistently. Leonardo Mayer is no a fast court prodigy but he will keep the ball in play, can defend well, and has a much better all around game.
CH Sacramento // Robert Kendrick vs Thanasi Kokkinakis // Thanasi Kokkinakis @ 1.61 BET365
Robert Kendrick makes his comeback to official competition playing his first match since week 27 of 2012. Is form is unknown but what I know is that his results previous to his injury were mediocre. His opponent is 17 year old Thanasi Kokkinakis, an up and coming Aussie who reached 2nd round last week in Napa after going through qualy. Very solid game and idea of play backed up by a lot of natural talent.
slight more in-depth write up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
A chronic loser at this tournament where his best result is a second round, counting many first round losses. He is 5-10 in matches played on home soil, career record of 51-46 on Indoor Hard for a -18.3% ROI, -15.9% in his last 50 matches. He has some power which is useful playing Indoor, but he is very erratic, not dominant from the baseline and can’t serve well consistently. Leonardo Mayer is no a fast court prodigy but he will keep the ball in play, can defend well, and has a much better all around game.
CH Sacramento // Robert Kendrick vs Thanasi Kokkinakis // Thanasi Kokkinakis @ 1.61 BET365
Robert Kendrick makes his comeback to official competition playing his first match since week 27 of 2012. Is form is unknown but what I know is that his results previous to his injury were mediocre. His opponent is 17 year old Thanasi Kokkinakis, an up and coming Aussie who reached 2nd round last week in Napa after going through qualy. Very solid game and idea of play backed up by a lot of natural talent.
slight more in-depth write up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
CH Sacramento // Peter Polansky vs Samuel Groth // Polansky @ 2.10 BET365
Samuel Groth is a big guy, at 6’4” he has one of the most powerful serves in the game, but truth is a weak player besides in serving. Over the last year in the CH tour players have been able to hold serve 85.4% of the times against him, Polansky scores much better with a 76%. Keep the returns in play and make the big guy work the point, he lacks consistency and will soon become erratic.
ATP Tokyo // Kei Nishikori vs Feliciano Lopez // Nishikori @ 1.46 Pinnacle Sports
The scare inflated Nishikori's odds against Feliciano Lopez. They faced twice this year, 1-1 is the score, first Nishikori won Indoor 6-2 6-3 before losing 4-6 6-7 in Cincy before the US Open. In Memphis the payout for Nishikori’s win was 27 cents on the $, here in Tokyo is on average 75% more. Two important stats here are Nishikori’s negative ROI against leftys, -10.5% and positive against Big Servers 16.8%.
slight more in-depth write-up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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CH Sacramento // Peter Polansky vs Samuel Groth // Polansky @ 2.10 BET365
Samuel Groth is a big guy, at 6’4” he has one of the most powerful serves in the game, but truth is a weak player besides in serving. Over the last year in the CH tour players have been able to hold serve 85.4% of the times against him, Polansky scores much better with a 76%. Keep the returns in play and make the big guy work the point, he lacks consistency and will soon become erratic.
ATP Tokyo // Kei Nishikori vs Feliciano Lopez // Nishikori @ 1.46 Pinnacle Sports
The scare inflated Nishikori's odds against Feliciano Lopez. They faced twice this year, 1-1 is the score, first Nishikori won Indoor 6-2 6-3 before losing 4-6 6-7 in Cincy before the US Open. In Memphis the payout for Nishikori’s win was 27 cents on the $, here in Tokyo is on average 75% more. Two important stats here are Nishikori’s negative ROI against leftys, -10.5% and positive against Big Servers 16.8%.
slight more in-depth write-up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
CH Mons // Tobias Kamke vs Marc Gicquel // Kamke @ 1.56 5DIMES
I think 5Dimes price for this is a bonus. Conditions bring out the best play of Gicquel but Kamke run around the court much faster and he brings top 50 tennis to the court. They met 2 weeks ago Kamke won 6-3 6-2. Gicquel will be victim of the age curve soon.
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CH Mons // Tobias Kamke vs Marc Gicquel // Kamke @ 1.56 5DIMES
I think 5Dimes price for this is a bonus. Conditions bring out the best play of Gicquel but Kamke run around the court much faster and he brings top 50 tennis to the court. They met 2 weeks ago Kamke won 6-3 6-2. Gicquel will be victim of the age curve soon.
CH Sao Paulo // Joao Souza vs Martin Alund // Souza @ 1.80 BET365
They’ve played 4 times, all of them in South America, Souza leads 3-1. He lost back in 2011 and last year around this time they played with Souza winnning both without dropping a set, odds for his win were 2.00 and 1.525. Souza is a top 100 player, could be if he played more ATP Main Draws but he is happy with competing in the Challenger tour where he sets the bar of at least 30 wins.
CH Sao Paulo // Maximo Gonzalez vs Rogerio Dutra Silva // Gonzalez @ 1.83 5Dimes
H2H is 4-2 for Gonzalez, 2-2 L4. Most recent match was last week in Porto Alegre with Gonzalez winning 6-3 6-2. Odds for Gonzelez’s win were 1.87. Gonzalez has had a breakout year, over last 52 weeks he went 45-16 for a stunning ROI% of 42.5%.
more in depth write up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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CH Sao Paulo // Joao Souza vs Martin Alund // Souza @ 1.80 BET365
They’ve played 4 times, all of them in South America, Souza leads 3-1. He lost back in 2011 and last year around this time they played with Souza winnning both without dropping a set, odds for his win were 2.00 and 1.525. Souza is a top 100 player, could be if he played more ATP Main Draws but he is happy with competing in the Challenger tour where he sets the bar of at least 30 wins.
CH Sao Paulo // Maximo Gonzalez vs Rogerio Dutra Silva // Gonzalez @ 1.83 5Dimes
H2H is 4-2 for Gonzalez, 2-2 L4. Most recent match was last week in Porto Alegre with Gonzalez winning 6-3 6-2. Odds for Gonzelez’s win were 1.87. Gonzalez has had a breakout year, over last 52 weeks he went 45-16 for a stunning ROI% of 42.5%.
Both Jarmere Jenkins and Donald Young are in the singles draw, Jenkins plays the 2nd round today before doubles. Neither Young or Jenkins are power hitters or net players. Gojowczyk lost to Young in the 1st round 6-4 7-6, but he is a better doubles player than the American. He will serve aces, hit hard and deep and usually comes to the net playing singles. Zivkovic lost in the qualy, a mediocre player in singles he can make a living playing doubles, big guy can serve and is a presence at the net.
Ram and Reynolds have theoretical advantage of already being out of the singles draw. But that might also mean they just want to go home, it’s Thursday winning a game might mean missing the weekend at home. Ram lost to Kyrgios in the 1st round, Kyrgios who is a multiple grand slam winner as a junior in both singles and doubles. Evans has had a breakout year, with great hard court performances.
Both Jarmere Jenkins and Donald Young are in the singles draw, Jenkins plays the 2nd round today before doubles. Neither Young or Jenkins are power hitters or net players. Gojowczyk lost to Young in the 1st round 6-4 7-6, but he is a better doubles player than the American. He will serve aces, hit hard and deep and usually comes to the net playing singles. Zivkovic lost in the qualy, a mediocre player in singles he can make a living playing doubles, big guy can serve and is a presence at the net.
Ram and Reynolds have theoretical advantage of already being out of the singles draw. But that might also mean they just want to go home, it’s Thursday winning a game might mean missing the weekend at home. Ram lost to Kyrgios in the 1st round, Kyrgios who is a multiple grand slam winner as a junior in both singles and doubles. Evans has had a breakout year, with great hard court performances.
will update after this one, maximo gonzalez yet to play.
CH Sao Paulo // Antonio Veic vs Pedro Sousa // Veic @ 1.86 SBObet
Veic is a player that popped up 2 years ago with a 3rd round in RG, he hits with power and deep, style of play that will favor him under the current conditions. Courts will be slow but heavy, Sousa a more defensive and run around player might find it difficult to return the ball with quality consistently. Sousa's recent run is being overrated, Veic should be more of a favorite here.
more in depth write-up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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will update after this one, maximo gonzalez yet to play.
CH Sao Paulo // Antonio Veic vs Pedro Sousa // Veic @ 1.86 SBObet
Veic is a player that popped up 2 years ago with a 3rd round in RG, he hits with power and deep, style of play that will favor him under the current conditions. Courts will be slow but heavy, Sousa a more defensive and run around player might find it difficult to return the ball with quality consistently. Sousa's recent run is being overrated, Veic should be more of a favorite here.
ATP Shangai // Marsel Ilhan vs Michael Russel // Ilhan @ 2.38 MarathonBet
pposes 35 year old Russel to the best Turkish player. Russel is a roadrunner, been around the tour for ages, never a top player still had a very respectful career grabbing wins here and there, a lot of fighting spirit. Russel has retired 3 times in the last 7 weeks, at age 35 is physical condition is not the best and with a long year winding down his current form might be at a low and his body is feeling it. Not only do I believe Ilhan is a better player, Russel is not in a good moment. Odds have a LOT of value.
WTA Beijing // Petra Kvitova vs Jelena Jankovic // Kvitova @ 1.52 Pinnacle Sports
A lot has been said about Kvitova this week, that her asthma is a huge handicap in Beijing, that's she must be fatigued but truth is she just keeps on winning. After claiming Tokyo last week she's on the run to claim China after defeating home girl Na Li. This year Kvitova has showed flashes of her 2011 oldself, the 56-11 year. She's doing it again and she's in top form after winning 5 three setters in a row. Jelena Jankovic has her prime already behind her, she's had a run this week but her opponents have been erratic and none has the fire-power of Kvitova.
more in depth write-up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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ATP Shangai // Marsel Ilhan vs Michael Russel // Ilhan @ 2.38 MarathonBet
pposes 35 year old Russel to the best Turkish player. Russel is a roadrunner, been around the tour for ages, never a top player still had a very respectful career grabbing wins here and there, a lot of fighting spirit. Russel has retired 3 times in the last 7 weeks, at age 35 is physical condition is not the best and with a long year winding down his current form might be at a low and his body is feeling it. Not only do I believe Ilhan is a better player, Russel is not in a good moment. Odds have a LOT of value.
WTA Beijing // Petra Kvitova vs Jelena Jankovic // Kvitova @ 1.52 Pinnacle Sports
A lot has been said about Kvitova this week, that her asthma is a huge handicap in Beijing, that's she must be fatigued but truth is she just keeps on winning. After claiming Tokyo last week she's on the run to claim China after defeating home girl Na Li. This year Kvitova has showed flashes of her 2011 oldself, the 56-11 year. She's doing it again and she's in top form after winning 5 three setters in a row. Jelena Jankovic has her prime already behind her, she's had a run this week but her opponents have been erratic and none has the fire-power of Kvitova.
WTA Linz // Victoria Kan vs Virgine Razzano // Kan @ 9.00 BET365
Kan is a 17 year old who has been very successful in the ITF circuit this and last yeat. Still very young, she's yet to test herself against WTA competition but her enrollment in this tournament indicates she wants to measure herself against better competition. I think we can extract a lot of value from Victoria here. Razzano is past her prime, often demotivated she's had her struggles in recent years. Playing indoor this match has everything to become a baseline fight, and the youngster can throw punches in that type of game, plus she's faster around the court than Razzano.
more at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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WTA Linz // Victoria Kan vs Virgine Razzano // Kan @ 9.00 BET365
Kan is a 17 year old who has been very successful in the ITF circuit this and last yeat. Still very young, she's yet to test herself against WTA competition but her enrollment in this tournament indicates she wants to measure herself against better competition. I think we can extract a lot of value from Victoria here. Razzano is past her prime, often demotivated she's had her struggles in recent years. Playing indoor this match has everything to become a baseline fight, and the youngster can throw punches in that type of game, plus she's faster around the court than Razzano.
ATP Shangai // Ryan Harrison vs Go Soeda // Harrison @ 1.64 SBObet
Ryan Harrison leads H2H 2-0 with a 3 set win this year in Indian Wells. Odds for Harrison were 1.55 and 1.65 in 2012. Harrison is 19-6, 27.0% ROI on Hard Court when a 1.50-1.99 favorite. Soeda is 30-12 for a -15.1% ROI in matches played in China. Soeda has been in good form last couple of weeks and Harrison has been awhile since he had a tournament run. Harrison’s edge comes on the serve where he is a top player, has enough game to keep Soeda at bay as he proved in the past.
more info at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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ATP Shangai // Ryan Harrison vs Go Soeda // Harrison @ 1.64 SBObet
Ryan Harrison leads H2H 2-0 with a 3 set win this year in Indian Wells. Odds for Harrison were 1.55 and 1.65 in 2012. Harrison is 19-6, 27.0% ROI on Hard Court when a 1.50-1.99 favorite. Soeda is 30-12 for a -15.1% ROI in matches played in China. Soeda has been in good form last couple of weeks and Harrison has been awhile since he had a tournament run. Harrison’s edge comes on the serve where he is a top player, has enough game to keep Soeda at bay as he proved in the past.
WTA Linz // Sesil Karatantcheva vs Victoria Kan // Sesil @ 1.61 BET365
Kan’s second serve is very fragile, against Razzano she only placed 39% of her 1st serves, yet Razzano only had 1 BP in all game. Against Sesil this won’t happen, Sesil will be ready to deliver some blasting returns on Kan’s 2nd serve and it will be a struggle for Kan every single servivce game. From the baseline Kan also has a hard mission, Sesil is very explosive, hits winners at ease and will be very focused as she has a very good chance of making it to the Main Draw. Over-reaction to the upset combined with the lack of information bookie had about Victoria Kan gives us here another excellent value situation.
more info at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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WTA Linz // Sesil Karatantcheva vs Victoria Kan // Sesil @ 1.61 BET365
Kan’s second serve is very fragile, against Razzano she only placed 39% of her 1st serves, yet Razzano only had 1 BP in all game. Against Sesil this won’t happen, Sesil will be ready to deliver some blasting returns on Kan’s 2nd serve and it will be a struggle for Kan every single servivce game. From the baseline Kan also has a hard mission, Sesil is very explosive, hits winners at ease and will be very focused as she has a very good chance of making it to the Main Draw. Over-reaction to the upset combined with the lack of information bookie had about Victoria Kan gives us here another excellent value situation.
WTA Linz // Klara Zakopalova vs Stefanie Voegele // Zakopalova @ 1.93 Pinnacle Sports
Zakopalova comes from 4 consecutive first round losses, coming back to Europe and playing indoors she has the conditions tilting her way plus the motivation to put end to this bad run. Zakopalova is a player with a heavy-hand, heavy and deep baseline strokes, no surprise that she wins almost 50% of return points on the tour. In these courts you have to be able to play with speed and aggressiveness from the baseline, Zakopalova has those attributes, doesn't need a high bounce to be effective. Voegele on the other hand has traits that make her unfit for this match.
more in-depth write up at my blog iLikeMyOdds.net
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WTA Linz // Klara Zakopalova vs Stefanie Voegele // Zakopalova @ 1.93 Pinnacle Sports
Zakopalova comes from 4 consecutive first round losses, coming back to Europe and playing indoors she has the conditions tilting her way plus the motivation to put end to this bad run. Zakopalova is a player with a heavy-hand, heavy and deep baseline strokes, no surprise that she wins almost 50% of return points on the tour. In these courts you have to be able to play with speed and aggressiveness from the baseline, Zakopalova has those attributes, doesn't need a high bounce to be effective. Voegele on the other hand has traits that make her unfit for this match.
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