Australian Open 2011

+2.41 units

After day 8: 5-4 & +1.43 units

Happy with that result as there would have been doubts over all of the top 4 seeds in the QF matches.

Murray looks outstanding at the moment.

Thanks mtb.

Day match today for Federer which benefits him - ball travels quicker and he'll play with higher tempo to preserve energy. However Wawrinka's form has been stunning so far so I'm not taking the risk of losing 3 units in case he will spring a surprise.

Wawrinka o. Federer +333 x 0.6 unit

 +1.47 units

After day 9: 6-4 & +2.90 units

Murray outright isn't looking as good at the moment. He should take care of Dolgopolov and has a decent chance againts Nadal. But if Federer plays more like he did against Wawrinka it will be a very tough one.

Thanks sims.

Yeah it has been a really tough tourney. It has been a couple of years since I looked like profiting from the Australian Open and I finished with negative records in the last two slams as well.

Started poorly but I knew there was a chance of earning some units back with those early futures wagers.

No wagers tonight. Hoping that Murray wins comfortably and I think he might. Probably wishful thinking that Nadal loses to Ferrer but hopefully he will forced to fight for it.

 I  profiting 

Couldn't have had a luckier night with Nadal going out. Well maybe if Ferrer took 5 hours it might have been luckier but I'll take it as it is!

I have hedged out the entire liability on the Murray outright wager.

Some might say that is premature but I have been asking myself what price he would be offered at if Federer beats Djokovic tomorrow, and convincingly. At the moment Murray has been trading at +215 but that undoubtedly takes into account the competitive nature of the other SF. If it is a Murray v Federer final I would speculate that Murray isn't offered much shorter than +215. He is a tough matchup for Federer but everyone knows that a slam final is a different ball game and Murray has twice lost to him at +180 or so in those matches.

If it is Djokovic in the final then I should benefit from better hedging conditions.

Besides you cannot totally write off Ferrer although I think that Murray will handle him on Friday.

I found an offer too good to pass up from a UK bookmaker of Murray to end the Australian Open as a runnerup. Priced at +100 so I hedged a further 1.5 units on that.

If he plays Federer he his odds should be significantly longer than that. If he plays Djokovic that is more of a pick'em but Djokovic's experience in slams and excellent form this year would surely make him more than a slight favorite.

Of course if Murray loses to Ferrer I will lose on this wager - but only 1.5 units so it isn't a fortune. However I'm expecting him to win on Friday whether it is in a routine 3 setter or in 5 hours.

So the current situation is:

Murray outright winner +4.5 units

Federer or Djokovic outright winner over Murray +1.5 units 

Ferrer in the final -1.5 units

I'm ecstatic that Federer is out.

Hopefully Murray will win tomorrow and fairly convincingly. If so I'm looking to trade for virtually equal profit on the outright before game time on Sunday.

Got fairly worried there but Murray finally got the job done! Happy that the Djokovic price hasn't really moved despite today's match so hedging has been rewarding than I thought.

My final position heading into the final is:

Murray +2.42 units

Djokovic +3.05 units

I believe that Murray can win on Sunday if he believes, is able to play good variety and can engage Djokovic in a physical match. But I have to give hedge the outright to reflect favoritism on Djokovic. He knows how to win a slam, has progressed through the draw comfortably and is better rested. Also Murray had problems hitting through Ferrer as we thought might happen. It is even tougher to do that against Djokovic and an evening match doesn't help.

+2.67 units

Hedged a little Murray's way in the third set as I sensed a bit of a power shift after he got the break back but he flopped like a deck of cards after that.

Australian Open: 7-4 & +5.57 units & +37.05% ROI

Excellent finish to the tournament.