thoughts on Men:
My oh my what a tourney... Tsonga beats Fed and with good reason, worst I have seen Fed move and he still took it to a tiebreaker and won the second... After the first 10 minutes of that match I knew Tsonga would win, in fact my guess is alot of quality players would have taken Fed out today... I figure there is some discomfort, maybe a groin or hammy, he is getting older these things happen, my guess is he sits out Cincy and gets ready for New York, I dont think there is much reason for alarm in the Fed Camp... But with that Said, its not like Tsonga played very well... he moved well, but that was about it... he served at 57% and his winner count is very skewed, "quality" winners, couldnt have been more than 20-25 in a 135minute match... Its gonna take alot more than that to beat Almagro the way he is playing, like I said before, Man on a Mission... He is playing hard ever point... Fought back hard after being down against Gasquet.... and Gasquet's backhand was electric as always... Gasquet played well and lost, Tsonga right now doesnt have the baseline weapons that Gasquet has... Tsonga is gonna be the fav, that I am sure of, but Almagro is the livest of Dogs, the worry is him losing a third set, Tsonga can handle the kitchen sink better than most... and Almagro is gonna have to serve better than the 51% he had today... I have already hti Almagro at +243, I imagine he will get close to +200 by match time... Joker is still looking Rusty, Cilic was a point away from forcing a first Set tiebreak that I think he had a good chance to win, after that it was just a demoralized second Set... Point being Joker is still not sharp, but does he need to be to beat Monfils... These are matches where I actually look at head to head, where Joker is 6-0... the last time they played was late in 2010, and we all know how much better Joker has gotten... I just dont liek the line where it is... Monfils is playing very well, will he up is focus for this match, I would think so... H has gotten away with unfocused efforts where he is trying to win a crowd instead of winning a match.. If Monfils can really grind in this match I think Joker will have a very tough time hold serve.... The question I ask myself is, Is there Value in Monfils?, I think yes... Joker -700 is just too much... I would like to see a spread of +4.5, then I will be playing Monfils... will it come probably not... but I could easily see 7-6, 6-4... or even the 7-6, 6-7, 6-2.... Berdych/Tipsy is a tough match to cap because of Tipsy serve consistency... I do not view Berdych as one of the better returners in the game, even though when he is on its something else.. His strong suit is his ability to generate pace, which really plays into Tipsy's hands right now... THe mental weakness of these has definately been documented... I dont see either player winning this match clean... I like the over, but I am tired of taking overs at 22.5 and will pass if this is the number... 21.5 looks good to me... Tipsy worth a shot at +160, but I would need +180 to take a stab... Tipsy 2-1 might be a better risk/reward option... THe way fish is playing I like him to beat Warinka, my only qualm will be the weather, if it is windy and swirling Wawrinka will have an advantage having played in it and also because he has a lower bass toss... Fish would have to adjust and might dump the first Set because of it... Fish had ideal condidtions in a night match and clobbered F. Lopez... Will have to wait and see about the weather, but I would like fish in any scenario really but at -180 with bad weather I dont like the value as much... I would take over in 15-20 mph wind, Fish 2-0 with little wind... Bryan Bros will take out a struggling Bopanna/Quereshi Team, it is clear Bopanna needs to drop Quereshi, he is too good to keep losing, but they feel good story, once dominant, is really struggling, Bryan Bros should have an easy time, reardless it doubles you can only take ML, super tiebreaker would belong to Bryan Bros... I imagine Bopanna might make a change before the US Open and this could be there last match together, but that is just a gut feeling... Fading andy Murray again cause I am an idiot, he is lost in translation from what I am seeing, but they are still winning... Berdych/Mayer is a definate play if Berdych loses, he and Safarova have to have something to root for... Llorda/ZImonjic should once again take down a mediocre doubles team, but knowing them it might be closer, pass unless it is -250 or better... Tsonga/Wawrinka have a chance to win this title they have to be motivated, which we will determine in this match, if they win then I will bite on them as a dog vs llorda/Zimonjic...
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