ATP Basel

2. Milos Raonic
Raonic’s one visit to Basel was successful in 2014 with a semifinal run. The Canadian will be looking to shake off a poor late season run that has seen him go just 5-4 from the U.S. Open until now. He appeared healthy enough in Shanghai in a tough three set loss to Jack Sock. That is good news after he rolled his ankle the previous week that led to his withdrawal in Beijing. Raonic draws a potentially tough first rounder though with Ricardas Berankis. Berankis isn’t in particularly good form, but he beat Raonic indoors in Moscow in 2014 and played him tough in a loss indoors in San Jose back in 2011.

Berankis has the lay of the land here after getting through qualifying, but has done very little this season. Still, he showed in St.Petersburg in September that he’s got game on this surface, losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in a third set tiebreak in round two. Raonic should be alert and will need to get off to a quick start to avoid an upset.

3. Kei Nishikori
Nishikori is 5-2 in just two appearances in Basel. He made the final in 2011, but lost in round two his last visit in 2013. Nishikori draws Dusan Lajovic to open. The Serb can play tougher than most expect on this surface, so this is not a gimme. Still, Nishikori will need to rediscover his form after missing the last few weeks due to an injury picked up in Tokyo. He appears fully recovered, so barring a lot of rust, he should get through.

4. Marin Cilic
Cilic is a two-time quarterfinalist at this tournament, making that round last year. He arrives off a poor loss to Alexander Zverev in Shanghai where he faded over three sets. The Croat has to deal with veteran Mikhail Youzhny to start. The Russian is 5-4 all-time against Cilic, but is 1-3 against him indoors. Youzhny looked poor against Jan-Lennard Struff in his opener in Antwerp last week, so Cilic should be confident that he can secure the win.

5. David Goffin
Goffin will arrive in Basel a bit disappointed at how his week ended at home in Belgium last week. Goffin lost in the semifinals to Diego Schwartzman on an indoor surface, but overall Goffin has been steady in October. The Belgian is 9-3 in his last three tournaments. The Belgian has not been immune to early exits with two first-up losses at the U.S. Open and in Shenzhen in the past few months. He draws a tricky first round opponent in Marcos Baghdatis, but the Cypriot hasn’t looked too hot recently. Baghdatis has been a nightmare for Goffin though with a 4-1 record and three of those wins have come in the last two years. On top of that, Baghdatis has beaten Goffin twice on this surface. This is a definitely landmine for Goffin if he’s to make a run this week.

6. Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov is 7-4 all-time in Basel with quarterfinal runs from 2012-2014. Last year, he was dumped out in round two by Rafael Nadal. He draws a tough one to open against Gilles Muller. The pair have split four matches overall with Muller winning their only indoor match in Rotterdam in 2015. Muller lost his opener in Stockholm last week to Dustin Brown, but his serve gives him chances to win on this surface. Dimitrov may well survive here, but don’t expect it to come easy.

7. Richard Gasquet
Gasquet arrives with the title from Antwerp and a good track record in Basel. The Frenchman is 10-5 all-time here and made the semifinals last season. Gasquet will have to deal with a quick turnaround since there are no byes. That will pit him against Guido Pella early in the week. Pella is another guy who plays tougher than you might expect on hard surfaces. The positive for Gasquet is that Pella rarely pulls off wins though against higher ranked players on this surface. Gasquet may run out of gas this week, but the first round doesn’t look like the spot for that.

8. Jack Sock
Sock arrives in good form after making the final in Stockholm last week. He also made the semifinals here in 2015. The negative for Sock is he looks to be a perfect candidate for the championship hangover after playing a lot of tennis in Stockholm and looking like he was on fumes in the final set against Juan Martin Del Potro in Sunday’s final. Sock draws Adrian Mannarino to open. That is good news for Sock who is 3-1 against the Frenchman, but I still think fatigue is going to be a big issue. If Mannarino wins, I won’t be surprised.

Quarters Preview

Quarter #1: Stan Wawrinka (1)
Wawrinka has his poor history in this tournament and 7th seed Richard Gasquet to contend with in this quarter. I do think he can end his string of four straight first round losses. A win gets him either qualifier Donald Young or Illya Marchenko. Don’t sleep on Young if he gets the shot. The Donald owns a win over Wawrinka and has played him tough in two other losses. For Gasquet, the bottom of the quarter won’t be easy either. Gasquet has Pella to open and then either qualifier Mischa Zverev or Taylor Fritz. Zverev could be the tougher out with the German veteran playing pretty well lately with a quarterfinal showing in Shanghai. He has played Gasquet extremely tough in Shenzhen this year, losing in two tiebreak sets.

This seems super winnable for Wawrinka, but the track record says he just doesn’t enjoy himself here. If Gasquet doesn’t succumb to fatigue, he could continue a nice roll this week. Otherwise, don’t be surprised if one of the two qualifiers maybe shocks here with Young or Zverev moving on.

Quarter #2: Marin Cilic (4)
Cilic and Sock (8) are the seeds here. This is a fairly tough quarter with the floaters in this bracket that include Spaniards Pablo Carreno Busta who just won a title on this surface in Moscow. You also have Fernando Verdasco and Marcel Granollers here, but neither has been winning lately. Cilic could face Carreno Busta in round two if PCB gets past Verdasco. That could provide for some upset potential. In the bottom half, Sock realistically could make a deep run again this week if fatigue isn’t a factor. He has Mannarino to open and then either Granollers or wild card Henri Laaksonen. No world beaters there, but I am hesitant about Sock’s chances due to the long week in Stockholm.

For me, this quarter could come down to Cilic or Carreno Busta.

Quarter #3: Kei Nishikori (3)
Nishikori and Goffin are the seeds in this quarter. Nishikori without a doubt has the easier route to a quarterfinal. Goffin has the poor match-up with Baghdatis to open and could see Juan Martin Del Potro in round two. DelPo opens against Robin Haase in round one and looks as if he could be poised for another nice week. The Argentine wasn’t extended physically in any of his matches in Stockholm, so I expect he’ll be in good shape this week. His power game could run roughshod over the rest of this quarter. Nishikori’s biggest threat before the quarters would likely be Nicolas Mahut in the second round. Mahut opens with Paolo Lorenzi and has done reasonably well indoors.

This one should come down to some mix of Nishikori, Goffin and Del Potro to decide the semfinalist. A Nishikori-Del Potro quarterfinal would leave most pretty excited. DelPo is 4-0 against Nishikori, but the two have not met since 2012.

Quarter #4: Milos Raonic (2)
Raonic and (6) Dimitrov are the seeds in this quarter. There are some floaters who on their day can provide problems like Benoit Paire, Andrey Kuznetsov and Gilles Muller. For Raonic, he has to overcome the Berankis issue in round one and then will see either Kuznetsov or Federico Delbonis. Reasonably, that is a quarterfinal birth for the Canadian if he plays well. Up top, Dimitrov does have some tough customers to contend with, but he could push through in this section. He’s had a nice late season surge, but with Muller first and then Paire or Florian Mater, it will be tough. Paire and Mayer are tough to predict as both could pose a sizeable risk to Dimitrov or lose going away in straight sets.

If Raonic can get rolling early, this is a tournament where he could be in the title mix. If he is still off his best though, then his quarter could fall to the more consistent Dimitrov if he avoids the round one upset.