Alcaraz Djokovic Name The Finalists Ticket

Hello Covers Brothers.

Moose looking for intelligent discussion on my 1K (+210) to win $3,100.00 on an Alcaraz v Djokovic Final via FanDuel.

I believe the play today is to let it ride with Carlos against Zverev. Zverev is a great player but I think a few things here.

A) Carlos has shown a lot of maturity and growth with two major wins. He’s down 3-2 against Zverev but I think his game is at another level.

B) Zverev just played over 4 1/2 hours against Sinner on Monday! Carlos will be fresh and will be looking to push Zverev all over the court with his power, touch, and speed. 

C) Has Alcaraz really played an “A” Match yet this tournament? I feel like against Evans he played very well but Evans was pesky enough to push Carlos a little bit. I think Carlos comes out firing tonight and takes it in 4 sets.

I’m hoping after tonight’s W there can be some potentially good discussion around a hedge/middle opportunity. If Alcaraz loses tonight, I look like a moron for posting this. Thanks Covers Brothers!

I think those are the right names to have still. There isn’t really enough value in it to hedge.

Djokovic is probably not going to lose to Shelton. Mind you, it’s Djoker’s least successful tournament and I firmly believe the decline will happen quick with Novak. He’ll be GS champ, then runner up, SF and then finding it tough to make 4th rd and QF. This is the fate of all the older Masters.

The last time Alcaraz faced Zverev on Hard court, he was a couple months into breaking into the top 100. Now he’s the defending US Open champion. Zverev is looking good himself. This should be a battle but if I got Alcaraz at plus money to win the next two matches, sign me up. He’s the best guy in the sport to back.

GL 

Carlos is playing amazing tennis right now. Better than anyone left in the tourney imo. He also had a pretty tough draw considering being the 1 seed and handled everyone convincingly. Poor Arnaldi even came to play the last match too, Carlos is just too good. 

Like Shelton to beat djokovic but I always lose so you prob good lol 

@AverageAllstar

 I appreciate the post. 

Alcaraz played very well last night. I think the move right now is to hope Djokovic gets the job done. It would be a historic upset. Especially since Djokovic can play the big servers very well. I’d say Joker in 3-4 sets. Thankfully this is the early match.

My thinking is if Joker wins, to bet “Set Betting” with Medvedev 3-1 and Medvedev 3-2. I will have to look for the best odds and put some $$$ on for a hedge.

What do you guys think of the strategy?

I wouldn't bet on Medvedev against Alcaraz. 

Alcaraz owns him. 

Medvedevs playing style (standing far behind the line) doesn't work against Alcaraz. Alcaraz is too good in serve&volley. In their Wimbledon match Medvedevs receiving position didn't work but still he didn't change it and got owned. In this matchup now he will stand far behind the line again when receiving because he isn't used to return serves another way. Even if he adapts a little bit this time I think Medvedev will win 1 set maximum. No value for me in betting on Medvedev although being a fan of him. 

I am not looking to “bet” on anyone specifically. My goal is to make as much money as possible here. Getting $3,100.00 back would be fantastic!

Refuse to Sink….you would let it ride?

There are many things I could do. Bet something on Shelton to win 3-1 or 3-2 for example. I don’t think Djokovic or Alcaraz will lose in straight sets. So I think Set Betting offers the best return on investment at the moment.

That being said, I’m weighing all my options in the next 32 hours. 

I would let it ride. I don't see Djoker losing to Shelton or Alcaraz losing to Medvedev.

That being said I would say the chances for Shelton to win one or two sets are higher than for Medvedev. 

I would hate to suggest a wager and it not come through, especially if you’ve already made a post about what you want to do. With that said, you made a bet and it’s getting close to coming through. It was a good bet. While in the world of numbers there “could” be a better outcome, the best out come might also be the trajectory you’re on and hedging against it just cuts into your gain.

I agree with the other posters here. Despite Medvedev’s great playing and potential to pull off an upset, I’ll take Carlos all day right now. And even though Shelton has a chance, Djoker is probably going to win that 3-0.

Proceed with caution here. You’re looking good. And if it ain’t broke…

If you want to hedge, I’d just take overs. There is no way Alcaraz or Djoker go down in straight sets so if you take the O3.5 sets or game totals, those will hit if your wager loses. But you also have a chance at winning all of the wagers.

In your set betting, you have to lose one of your bets. Unless you bet 3-1 and 3-2. In which case you’ll lose 2 bets and still maybe lose all your bets if you only bet on one upset and they both lose.

You can compound your losses in a hurry here.

Find a prop that has Djokovic retiring mid match.

@GeoDawg

If you want a guaranteed loser. He would rather just finish the match quicker 

wait till finals. if djokovic gets first set, hedge accordingly.

The plan at the moment is to let it ride on the Novak match. I believe Novak will win his match.

After that, it is either let it ride OR

ALCARAZ 3-0 in sets at +140

MEDVEDEV 3-1 in sets at +950

MEDVEDEV 3-2 in sets at +800

I would bet $200 on Carlos.

I would bet like $100 on each Medvedev prop to ensure I lose 50-100 dollars total from my original wager. If Carlos wins 3-0, I profit $80 on my hedges and add the $3100.00 to make $3180.00…

I do not see Alcaraz NOT winning one set. If the match goes 4 sets I’m guaranteed not to lose much. I do think Alcaraz wins comfortably. Let’s go Novak and Carlitos!