My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....

This is my philosophy and methods on the business side of sportsgambling - NOT HANDICAPPING - which I feel is not nearly as important as other factors: Everyone talks about bankrolls and how much to bet of that bankroll. First, I want to define “bankroll”. To me, a bankroll is an amount of money you have to lose in an investment. That doesn’t mean that you are homeless if you lose your bankroll, it means that is the amount you are willing to risk losing it all in order to achieve your goal. Establishing a goal for a period of time or season. This goal is in relation to your bankroll. Do you want to double your money? Make 50%? What is the timeframe? A season? A month? So when you have a goal and a bankroll, you have established a pseudo wager. You are wagering your bankroll to hit your goal in a certain timeframe. You are willing to lose your bankroll in order to hit your goal in that timeframe. MY GOAL IS TO DOUBLE MY BANKROLL IN A SEASON. I believe in flat betting – more or less. And I believe in risking more of your bankroll on each game than you have heard before. I suggest risking 10% of your ORIGINAL bankroll on each game with no more than 13% on great games and 7% on borderline games. Risking 100% of your bankroll on a given day is not taboo, but probably necessary to hit your goal. I realize that you could lose your bankroll in a day, but this is an investment and not intended to last a season. Its not entertainment, its about hitting your goal in your timeframe. The most important way to increase your chances of hitting your goal is getting THE LOWEST JUICE POSSIBLE. I average 2% juice. I use exchanges and other means to get juice as low as possible. I subscribe to the theory that I am going to handicap at about a 55-60% range, so I can drastically increase profits by reducing juice. This is where my sweat and research go in – even above handicapping. I know this sounds unusual – but I know that handicapping can only be so good – and juice reduction is the way to make profits on a flat handicapping percentage. So let me give you examples of how low juice affects your bankroll and how my system pays out: 2% 10% Starting Bankroll 100,000 100,000 Record (58%) 58-42 58-42 Win $ at 10K per 580,000 580,000 Loss $ at 10K per 428,400 462,000 Profit 151,600 118,000 That is the difference right there. If you can go 58% there is a monumental difference in profits when you have reduced juice, so much so that you would have to go 60% at 10% juice just to match it. Yes, I recognize the volatility in a model like this. I recognize that if you start out 0-10 you are done. I realize the risks – but firmly believe this is the most sound way to go about reaching an aggressive investment goal. So to all of those that say you cant make money sportsgambling – in the above example I show you that with a 100k bankroll, and by going 58%, you make 151k profit. Not bad for doing what you love. Opinions are appreciated. GL

||win.gif' border=0>

Good stuff, VZ Trouble is, the # of people hitting 55-60% is in the definite minority. You are correct with your model in limiting the juice, but unless one hits 52.7% ( based on 10% juice) on all same-size straight wagers, they will lose $$$. I submit that 1) Money management and 2) Discipline ( not necessarily in that order either) are the two keys in this game. I theorize that among active players, or those who gamble two or more days a week in sports gambling, that only 5-10% have a 55% or better win-loss ratio. So the management and discipline aspects are paramount to not getting wiped out. If one chooses to use the entire "bankroll" on one play, they have either successfully doubled up, or lost their entire "investment" in one shot. I think most sports bettors prefer the daily grind and rollercoasterride over the Multi-unit plays. Congrats to you for being successful in both the capping and $$ mgmt side of the industry. You are most certainly in the minority, but your advice on how you make it happen is appreciated. SInce there are invitable streaks, both hot and cold, the discipline and mgmt. are the only way to achieve long-term success, and at 55% +, there is no ecuse NOT to make $$$. ||an_clap.gif' border=0>

Vanzack, an interesting read with some good points. My main question is how do you find a place that offers 2% juice, and of equal importance - do they pay without hassle. I've used Pinny and Canbet for almost all of my wagers and getting -105 to -107 on games is the best I can do. The point about reducing the vig to the lowest possible number is HUGE, but where are you able to get 2%? I disagree with you on betting 100% of your bankroll. If you lose this play, you have not only not achieved your goal, but have no more bankroll left for the rest of the year. It basically reduces the chance of hitting whatever your goal is to 50:50. And if that is the case, you may as well head to a casino and bet your entire bankroll on a hand of blackjack. I normally stick to keeping my bets at no more than 10% of my bankroll and feel like this is the best way to maximize profits, for me.

cantpick - i dont think anyone should put their whole bankroll on one play - i meant to say that you could have your whole bankroll in play on any given day - spread out over many plays. 10% per play. But even if someone is just a 53% handicapper, the profit potential lies in that person lowering juice. I think everyone is better served FIRST taking the time and learning how to lower their overall juice - AND ONCE THAT IS COMPLETE - learn how to handicap better. Its all about maximizing your ability. If you are a 53% capper you might as well make as much money as you can out of it. Let me do my example again: 2% 10% Starting Bankroll 100,000 100,000 Record (53%) 53-47 53-47 Win $ at 10K per 530,000 530,000 Loss $ at 10K per 479,400 517,000 Profit 50,600 23,000 THE DIFFERENCE FOR A 53% handicapper is 50% profit at 2% juice or a 23% profit at 10% juice. BIG DIFFERENCE!! ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

I THINK I NEED TO BOLD THIS: I DID NOT SAY RISK 100% OF YOUR BANKROLL ON ONE PLAY!! I REALIZE THE WAY IT IS WRITTEN IT COULD BE PERCEIVED THAT I SAID THIS - BUT WHAT I MEANT TO SAY IS THAT WHEN YOU BET 10% PER GAME THERE WILL BE DAYS WHEN 100% OF YOUR BANKROLL IS IN PLAY!! MY BAD

Scdoggy - good question. For me, the following has put me at 2.4% for the year - A NUMBER I TRACK JUST LIKE HANDICAPPING STATS!! How many people track their juice!!!????!!??? I bet none - but it is so important!! 1. Exchanges like Mansion, Matchbook, and Tradesports. These are invaluable. Many many times I am GETTING juice rather than giving. It takes time but with experience and timing you can maximize their use. 2. Pinny and other reduced juice shops. This gets more complicated but my personal philosophy is to RARELY lay above -104 here - and if it means selling down off of what I perceive as non-key numbers I will. 3. Fees for depositing and withdrawing money. I PAY NOTHING. And nobody should. 4. Negotiating juice through volume deals at books. I have been successful at 2 books in guaranteeing them volume for being a "market maker". I realize this is not readily available to the average joe - but just throwing it out there. 5. Hedging and middling - not only to middle the game - but to reduce juice. JUICE REDUCTION TAKES PRACTICE AND TIME. I have concentrated on this for years. I DO NOT PLAY AT ANY B BOOKS - only the best - I will never take a risk on getting paid. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

dont play to make aliving...just to relax and have fun...dont get too high with wins or to low from losses....too easy to get into a huge whole gettin too wrapped up in it||peace.gif' border=0>

It's interesting to get a post like this from you, Van. Only because your days of write-ups, I thought, were long gone. But it's good to see this here because I think it's good for some of those who haven't been around to hear your thoughts on things. Oh, and don't be surprised to see some of the official 'aimlow' icons being thrown your way when you talk about a roll of $100K. You know I know, but I imagine you'll hear about it. For what it's worth, I think it was a perfect example simply because it's a nice, round number, and using $10K wouldn't have as dramatically shown the very real effects of low juice. Two things from me on your thesis though. I would never recommend someone put their entire roll on one play. I've come close to doing it, and, sure, there are games where you are that confident. But s**t happens, so I would say, be smart. I would also make sure that people are clear that when you talk about doing things like betting your whole roll and betting 10% per, you're doing that in the context of one season. Your actual bankroll, what you took the money for your season (or investment) from, is actually larger. As you say, your bankroll is not all the money you have that keeps you from being homeless. It's not your mortgage, it's straight cash. However, in this case I wouldn't want people to think, 'oh, well Van says it's OK if I go broke in a season.' Because I don't think that's what you're saying. What you're saying is, if your roll 'for the season' is $100K or $10K or $1K, you have to be willing to lose all of that to get to your goal. But losing that doesn't mean you go broke, it means you've lost on this particular year or season of investing. Basically what I'm saying is, always have an out.

wrobl - you are not my intended audience. if you bet to have fun great. keep doing it. There are those that are interested in how to do this for a living though - and thats who it is intended for. GL

Joe - ABSOLUTELY AGREE. I did repost above that I never think you should have 100 on one play. I think I didnt do a good job of articulating that in my original post. Gambling money is an investment. You dont often see people going in to debt to buy stocks - and your gambling bankroll should also be thought of as an aggressive investment fund. ONE THAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE NO PROBLEMS. I wrote this thread in total disgust actually. I looked at the board today and all I see is "i want to be a tout - follow me - here is my pick" threads. There are very few posts about theory anymore. No more discussions. Just picks. And the thing is - picks are a factor in making money but not the only thing. Anyway - this will get 200 views and the latest from joebren and bellagioteller will get 5000. but thats life at covers these days. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

Thanks, Van. I actually hope this thread stays relatively clean. The responses so far have really been from the ones you want to hear from. There are others, maybe even an old-timer will come out of hiding and post his thoughts. I know he's been lurking around lately. At any rate, you and I are pretty much on the same page, but I think it should also be noted that you are obviously dedicating a good deal of time to this. I currently do not do any Tradesports, Matchbook, exchange stuff because I don't think I have the time. I have a feeling if I got up to speed (which might not take long at all) I could save some juice, but I just haven't forced myself to get into it because of the investment of time I think it will take. But if you do have the time, or if you are particularly adept at finding good lines (both literally and as in with the money) it will always make you money in the long run. There are things I love about Olympic, but one thing I hate is their base line of -110. It pains me to lay it every time I do. But, sometimes I'll trade that for what's at Pinny or Canbet because it's a better number. But any time you can reduce the juice, and really, reduce your risk, you're doing something right. It's one of the reasons I will stand up for two team teasers at even money. A little more money, but I think the value in it is worth it.

There are those that are interested in how to do this for a living though - and thats who it is intended for. And brother, believe me, I appreciate your insight. The only thing that didn't make sense to me was putting the whole bankroll on one play, and you cleared that up for me quite nicely. Thanks for the most excellent thoughts. ||peace.gif' border=0>

Also, you know, cant has a very good point. It's hard to pick over 52% or 53%, let alone 55%. Hell, in last year's Hilton thread I'm pretty sure I finshed the year at 49% and that was after doing 60% the year before. Given the streaks that come with this, and given how thin the margin for error can be (i.e. 50% vs. 53%), anything you can do to help yourself out you have to explore, reduced juice, better lines, better money on your ML bets, etc. Otherwise you're not maximizing what you can take off the table, and since you're almost never going to do a big percentage, you need to maximize what you take home when you do win.

wrobl54- agree, I use my job and skills to make money. Interesting read though Vanzak-- obviously you are a smart analytical guy who makes money at this..I really enjoy your input. I'm not you though, nor are most of us. Your approach is much to sterile for me. I agree with a lot of what cantpick discusses.. Most of us lose over time, but a good money management system can allow us to have fun without losing important things in life-- i.e. Job, marriage, kids etc.. I am not naive. I make great money in my job and I lose some of it gambling. I love to handicap and am pretty good at it. I get pumped when I go 12-4 and pissed when I go 4-12,I will occasionally chase losses (bad idea), have too many Amstels before making my Monday night wager and let someone on this forum talk me into halftime bet-- I am the typical American gambler. The key for me and 98% of the others on this sight is good handicapping but a better money management system. Vanzak- don't take this wrong. You are the man! But this isn't most of us.

Van - thanks for clearing up the whole bankroll issue. I didn't think you'd be advocating something like that, but at first read, that is the way I interpreted it. Do me a favor, if you get the time: start a thread on how to seriously get the jucie down using the methods you are talking about in the above response. I'd be very interested in doing this. I also pay serious attention to the juice I pay on my bets. Gambling will never be my only source of income, as I don't have the patience to be absorbed into what we do around here 24x7, but I do gamble to make money and don't just do this for shits and giggles. So if you've got the time, start a thread about this, or drop me a message at scdoggy@hotmail.com Thanks Van.||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

I agree Joe - and that is why I say - IT IS EASIER TO REDUCE JUICE THAN INCREASE HANDICAPPING PERCENTAGE. And everyone can do it!! Handicapping is an intangible skill. There are no rules to make you better. But with juice reduction EVERYONE can do it and its not rocket science. Reduce juice first and better your handicapping second. Opposite of what most people do - but although counterintuitive - it is profitable. Redbearde ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

tee dub - ||Peace_5.gif' border=0> - you are a smart man!! You are dead on. I am not poo pooing the average weekend warrior. I guess i have just read one too many "fix", "you cant win at gambling", or "i quit cause i lost all my money" threads. And just to shed light on another experience some have not been exposed to.

scdoggy - i will start a thread - give me a couple of days and I will include everything - including how I track and monitor juice. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

Looking forward to it.

so if you start wagering 10% of your bankroll and you start winning do you keep wagering 10% of your now increased bankroll or stick to your original wager amount. I usually stick to my original but insight on more profitable ways would be helpful

I do always find myself saying damn I should have bet more money on that or I should have taken more games, or the total too, etc

shady - ORIGINAL. If you increase you WILL PROB LOSE IT ALL. If I start with a 10k bankroll my bets are between 700 and 1300 for the whole season or goal timeframe. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

and since you dont like giving up juice do you not often buy points?

i often will sell points on numbers that I calculate to be non-material I never buy points unless I can severely justify it. I havent bought points in 3 years.