XLR8's NBA O/U Power System

ya myou might need to cut those power plays.. that and juice will kill your bankroll over time... but if your power plays start seeing betting win % keep with it :)

cheers and GL

Lets get em tomorrow......

X  - while you say the program is hitting 60% for the year, it seems to be stuck on the UNDER for almost every game. any thoughts, other than the usual? And do you know how many games it picked last year out of the total number of games played?

I don't just say it was hitting, u can check here.

Yeah it does that sometimes (pick a lot of unders), i just roll with it. But it has given all overs on a 5 game night before.

I will stick to the parameters I set earlier, If i happen to go under .500 I will discontinue posting on this thread. Also, if we are not over .500 on power plays at the conclusion of sunday's games, then all bets ill be $20.

Take Care.

 

Picks for the Day.

See, some days it does pick lots of overs.

If POWER PLAYS continue missing, we will go to flat betting the same amount to all. If by sunday night, we are not over .500 on power plays, they will cease to exist.

Remember folks that this is my project that I'm documenting. As with all systems & strategies, wager at your own risk.

Note: All pick will be posted by Noon EST, except Wednesday's when they will be posted by 2:00 EST.

Starting Money (12/07/10): $1000

Current: $785.38

Net Profit: -$214.62

Overall Record: 29-31    48%

Power Play record: 6-9

Picks or the day

NJ/TOR OVER 200.5 $20 TO WIN $18.18

MIA/NYK OVER 209.5 $20 TO WIN $18.18

CLE/IND UNDER 196.5 $20 TO WIN $18.18

LAL/PHI OVER 196.5 $60 TO WIN $54.54

LAC/DET OVER 191 $60 TO WIN $54.54

MEM/HOU OVER 203 $20 TO WIN $18.18

MIN/POR OVER 199.5 $20 TO WIN $18.18

7 PLAYS TODAY. 2 OF THEM POWER PLAYS

Someone criticizes the lack of overs and suddenly there are 6? 

I'm in.

LOL, I just post what the system says. I have had days where 8 of 9 are under and days that all 5 or 6 have been over.

Pure Coincidence my friend....

looking forward to the Heat/Knicks tonight..........GET READY FOR HIGHLIGHT REEL MATERIAL...

I was mostly joking, though kind of insinuating... but mostly joking since I decided I was still going to tail.  GL

X - was not criticizing about the Unders, just an observation.

GL

After another horrific night, 2-5 (1-1 on power plays), I have decided to end the project right here.

I will continue to make picks every single day and they will up t the same time daily.

If anyone wants them, just look at nba o/u capper leaderboard. i was first for 2 weeks straight and have plummeted to like 6 or 7th.

I am not giving up on the system, i will continue to use it. I am just giving up on writing them on this thread.

I feel like i'm letting people down. Even though i'm sure i'm the only one betting the amounts I write.

When it gets back to over 60% I will reconsider.

I appreciate all the support from ALL u guys/gals.

Good luck and thanks for your efforts.  Is it possible the system needs to be more selective?  Obviously, I don't know your system but the amount of games it produces is so high I wold think a high winning percentage would be tough to keep up.  Anyway, just a thought.  I have enjoyed your posts since you started.  I hope you do well.

It was a noble effort.  You were always upfront and honest, and nobody was obligated to follow you.
I will continue to track you via the capper page.  I hope to see you back on this thread in the near future.
In the meantime, focus on what is important; being with friends and family, and enjoying the holidays.  Happy holidays!

You barely gave this system a week... but the posting curse definitely bit you considering your drop. Still, I'm going to continue playing your totals because I feel like we'll bounce back and I'd be pissed if I missed the bounce back... which is why I don't think you should pull the plug. Your system was doing fine except for the power play idea. I'd say run it for a few more weeks and let everything level off but 11 days is simply too short. GL either way.

Hey X,

You can't give up till the fat lady sings.....You don't owe anyone an explanation of why your on the unders alot or unders. Just do your system as you have set to your parameters....

I hope you will reconsider. I have been following you closely buddy and got your back 100%. Remember that your in it for 60% hit margin. You stumbled the last few days.

Hoping you don't give up so easily......

I'm also betting your amounts but higher....


77 for Power Play

55 for regular O/U

only thing that has saved me the last few nights is my capping of spreads....


Come on back X !!!

i understand what happened to X...

he said you can still get his plays, he is just tired of posting them.. i believe they are in his contest thread here at covers..

continued success X...

 

Falcon

Where do I find the nba o/u capper leaderboard?

Thanks X for posting.  I'd continue plugging away with what you have.  It was running very positively and has turned downwards but depending on the data/stats or methods your system uses I think it is needing to get more info as lines tighten up.

I have seen this for a few years where in the early going people have a system or something and it is killing the books.  Then as the season progresses the lines get tighter and their system isn't quite a profitable.  I think the key then is to see what your system is giving you.

I followed a guy's plays that were pretty strong (ATS - 70% on select plays) last year and just tracked his picks.  His system had a 50-52% O/U overall but some of the teams would be hitting at 60-63%.  I didn't see that until I broke it down into teams not just an overall picture.  I found some teams results O/U were very accurate in his specific system.  May be something to look at in yours if you have not done so already.

Gonna miss that daily dose of a$$ on your avatar too.

GL

Come on XLR.. say it's not so!

What is up with people having a bad run for 7-15 days and then shutting down when they previously had success for 2 months?!

When (if) this does revert back to 60%, people will have missed that huge upswing, then when you start posting again it will likely balance out again with another few bad days.

 

One note.. I actually went against the Raptors pick, and Houston pick cuz when I went to click on the games the totals had both risen 3 points.. I thought that was a huge jump for an NBA total, so played the Unders. Ended up 6-3 on the night instead (thanks to Miami and Lakers spread picks, as well).

Have you thought about taking line movement into consideration, and would it affect the program?

HaHa! No.. you don't understand. XLR said this:

I am not giving up on the system, i will continue to use it. I am just giving up on writing them on this thread.

I feel like i'm letting people down.

You gave up on your System and didn't care about the people to even think you were letting them down.. big difference.

XLR - People understand having a bad week, it's really no big deal and you shouldn't feel like you're letting anyone down, altho I'm sure everyone appreciates the consideration. If this System hit 60% all of last year overall, and was doing great this year as well, up to this point, people will forgive a bad week. I urge you to reconsider your thoughts and remember the overall success this has brought you. If you still feel it's not worth your time, then I understand.

Last post messed up and cut stuff out, not sure why.. was supposed to be a paragraph before the note to XLR which said..

...big difference.

"I guess that sounds kinda harsh after I read it back.. but in reality, it's the truth and how people feel. So I'm going to hit submit."

Thanks to all.

What i would rather do is just post the picks. And u all can do with them what u please.

I will let u know the record so far for the year.

I don't think this is the correct thread to post just the picks and my record for the year.

Today

PHI/ORL UNDER 190.5

NY/CLE UNDER 211

LAC/CHI UNDER 195.5

MEM/SA OVER 197.5

GS/POR UNDER 197

RECORD FOR YEAR SO FAR: 140-91 (61%)

I WAITED 3 OR 4 DAYS BEFORE I STARTED RECORDING MY PICKS ON COVERS.

ANY RECOMMENDATIONS WOULD BE WELCOMED ON WHERE DO GO FROM HERE ON THIS THREAD.

 

OK, i will continue documenting the picks but without power plays. If everyone is ok with that then lets roll with it.

X: do what you want....

Kreature, i said, im giving up on the Project, not the Program, big difference..

Falcon

Will u at least show us which ones are the PP's?