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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Wagerline STREAKER (fade) system

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    GreenMachine22
    hoop121
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    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 5, 2009 - 4:29 PM ET #1

    2-4-8u chase system tied to wagerline streakers 13th, 14th and 15th selections.  I like because so far, it's called for mostly + money wagers.  This system is NOT proven by any means and I would NOT recommend tailing unless you like the play.  I'm basically doing this to track results. 
     
    Today we have one mlb FADE play so far.  It's based on the opposite play posted by AMERICANANGEL who is going for his 13th straight win...LAD (-118).  I will fade this play with the following 2u wager to start things off...
     
     
    AZ Diamondbacks +110 (2u's)
     
     
     
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    2-4-8u chase system tied to wagerline streakers 13th, 14th and 15th selections.  I like because so far, it's called for mostly + money wagers.  This system is NOT proven by any means and I would NOT recommend tailing unless you like the play.  I'm basically doing this to track results. 
     
    Today we have one mlb FADE play so far.  It's based on the opposite play posted by AMERICANANGEL who is going for his 13th straight win...LAD (-118).  I will fade this play with the following 2u wager to start things off...
     
     
    AZ Diamondbacks +110 (2u's)
     
     
     
     
    hoop121
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    Posted: May. 5, 2009 - 7:26 PM ET #2

    i've been tracking this for two weeks now. i track winning streaks 9 on for people under 52% and 9 on for people over 52%

    i have found that people with winning streaks of 9 lose at a much larger rate than those with streaks 10-12. sounds odd right? i think people start getting very selective at 10 wins and that is why the percentage of them ends of doing so well. if you looks at the all-stars, you can see that at each level from 15 on at least 45% of the people are right on their plays. 
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    i've been tracking this for two weeks now. i track winning streaks 9 on for people under 52% and 9 on for people over 52%

    i have found that people with winning streaks of 9 lose at a much larger rate than those with streaks 10-12. sounds odd right? i think people start getting very selective at 10 wins and that is why the percentage of them ends of doing so well. if you looks at the all-stars, you can see that at each level from 15 on at least 45% of the people are right on their plays. 
     
    The Dog Catcher
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    Posted: May. 5, 2009 - 8:31 PM ET #3

    Hoop,

    What is the record fading people with a winning streak of 9?  Would you make money?

    Thanks

    TDC
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    Hoop,

    What is the record fading people with a winning streak of 9?  Would you make money?

    Thanks

    TDC
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 5, 2009 - 8:33 PM ET #4

    I have been betting real money on these fade plays...are you, or are you just tracking for now?




    BTW - we have a large 8u play on STL -145 fading kohli4's 14th pick, PHI +117.



    STL -145 .....8u






    Posting late for a reason.
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    I have been betting real money on these fade plays...are you, or are you just tracking for now?




    BTW - we have a large 8u play on STL -145 fading kohli4's 14th pick, PHI +117.



    STL -145 .....8u






    Posting late for a reason.
     
    hoop121
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    Posted: May. 5, 2009 - 11:26 PM ET #5

    kohli is killing me. i've lost 25 units on that person so far. and they have a losing overall record too!

    people with less than 54% percentage and on a 9 game winning streak are currently 26-43.
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    kohli is killing me. i've lost 25 units on that person so far. and they have a losing overall record too!

    people with less than 54% percentage and on a 9 game winning streak are currently 26-43.
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 6, 2009 - 1:57 AM ET #6

    I'm down over 18 units so far fading kohli4's plays.  I'm done chasing this guy's plays now, so he'll probably lose his next (16th) pick...figures.

    HOOP, are you using any sort of chase system with the streakers at 9...or are you simply fading the one single play they post?
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    I'm down over 18 units so far fading kohli4's plays.  I'm done chasing this guy's plays now, so he'll probably lose his next (16th) pick...figures.

    HOOP, are you using any sort of chase system with the streakers at 9...or are you simply fading the one single play they post?
     
    hoop121
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    Posted: May. 6, 2009 - 6:33 AM ET #7

    i'm chasing after 12. i'm just betting straight units for 9-11. sometimes i bet against and sometimes with
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    i'm chasing after 12. i'm just betting straight units for 9-11. sometimes i bet against and sometimes with
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 7, 2009 - 11:32 AM ET #8

    kohli4 got his 15th straight W last night w/ my Tigers -104.  He's on a roll...
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    kohli4 got his 15th straight W last night w/ my Tigers -104.  He's on a roll...
     
    hoop121
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    Posted: May. 7, 2009 - 12:23 PM ET #9

    huh? no, that game was ppd
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    huh? no, that game was ppd
     
    hoop121
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    Posted: May. 7, 2009 - 4:38 PM ET #10

    kohli took Oak over Texas today, but picked it right before game time. i was able to get $100 down on texas about 30 seconds before i was taken off. 
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    kohli took Oak over Texas today, but picked it right before game time. i was able to get $100 down on texas about 30 seconds before i was taken off. 
     
    Local-DJ
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    Posted: May. 8, 2009 - 6:49 PM ET #11

    if you back your unit size down to a level smaller then usual for you, you can sustain chasing for a longer time. Then you have to pick which kind of progressive system your going to use for the chase. Martingale, piroli, labouchere etc. Only 17 guys have made it to 17 straight. 7 guys to 18, 5 guys to 19 and so on. This game has been going on since 2000 or 2001 and only 1 guy has hit 22. When you see a ceiling of 22 straight, its telling you the math moves more in your favor the higher these guys go. love this system

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    if you back your unit size down to a level smaller then usual for you, you can sustain chasing for a longer time. Then you have to pick which kind of progressive system your going to use for the chase. Martingale, piroli, labouchere etc. Only 17 guys have made it to 17 straight. 7 guys to 18, 5 guys to 19 and so on. This game has been going on since 2000 or 2001 and only 1 guy has hit 22. When you see a ceiling of 22 straight, its telling you the math moves more in your favor the higher these guys go. love this system

     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 8, 2009 - 7:07 PM ET #12

    It's certainly effective when played properly...I just have to figure that part out.  Valuable info above Local-DJ.  If you guys would help me keep this thread going by watching and posting plays and sharing wagering info - I'd GREATLY appreciate it.


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    It's certainly effective when played properly...I just have to figure that part out.  Valuable info above Local-DJ.  If you guys would help me keep this thread going by watching and posting plays and sharing wagering info - I'd GREATLY appreciate it.


     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 8, 2009 - 7:57 PM ET #13

    Taliesin (12 wins) took CWS -120 for his 13th straight.  This guy has been pretty solid so far and I happen to like the SOX tonight but I'll take the red hot Rangers at plus money. 



    FADE play = TEX +117 ....2u
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    Taliesin (12 wins) took CWS -120 for his 13th straight.  This guy has been pretty solid so far and I happen to like the SOX tonight but I'll take the red hot Rangers at plus money. 



    FADE play = TEX +117 ....2u
     
    Local-DJ
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    Posted: May. 8, 2009 - 9:12 PM ET #14

    the guy that has the record for this game of 22 is 733-723-29. that tells you that as good as that streak was, over the games we can see he picked here, he is barely over 50%. With the spread or the low money lines in baseball or hockey that the game allows to pick, when its starts getting real good like a streak of 13 or more and a ceiling of 22 its about to end the majority of the times and go the other way for the picker.
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    the guy that has the record for this game of 22 is 733-723-29. that tells you that as good as that streak was, over the games we can see he picked here, he is barely over 50%. With the spread or the low money lines in baseball or hockey that the game allows to pick, when its starts getting real good like a streak of 13 or more and a ceiling of 22 its about to end the majority of the times and go the other way for the picker.
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 9, 2009 - 12:25 PM ET #15

    TEX +117 ....2u 
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Today - AMERICANANGEL (13 wins) picks ARIZONA -123...fade play calls for a 4u wager on WASHINGTON +110
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    TEX +117 ....2u 
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Today - AMERICANANGEL (13 wins) picks ARIZONA -123...fade play calls for a 4u wager on WASHINGTON +110
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 11:34 AM ET #16

    WAS +110 .....4u




    Today - THE.K.O.P (13 wins) picks BOS Bruins -110 (should read -210, perhaps a wagerline line posting error)...fade play calls for a 4u wager on CAROLINA +175

    Today -
    eagle1956 (12 wins) picks LAL -3.5...fade play calls for a 2u wager on HOU +7.5
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    WAS +110 .....4u




    Today - THE.K.O.P (13 wins) picks BOS Bruins -110 (should read -210, perhaps a wagerline line posting error)...fade play calls for a 4u wager on CAROLINA +175

    Today -
    eagle1956 (12 wins) picks LAL -3.5...fade play calls for a 2u wager on HOU +7.5
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 11:37 AM ET #17

    record stands at 2 wins and 2 losses -4 units going into today (Sunday).
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    record stands at 2 wins and 2 losses -4 units going into today (Sunday).
     
    hoop121
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 5:09 PM ET #18

    actually dj, there have been 34 people who have reached 17 wins. 50% of those reached 18 wins (17) and then 58.8% of those reached 19 wins. so it would actually be better to bet with them as they hit 17 instead of against them.

    your error was in not factoring those who have won more than 17.
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    actually dj, there have been 34 people who have reached 17 wins. 50% of those reached 18 wins (17) and then 58.8% of those reached 19 wins. so it would actually be better to bet with them as they hit 17 instead of against them.

    your error was in not factoring those who have won more than 17.
     
    Local-DJ
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 5:26 PM ET #19

    your right hoop, my bad. Just have to start your chase at a higher number or have your unit size small enough to sustain a chase. still like the math on this and the fact that wagerline or logans is not looking forward to giving 100 k away again.
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    your right hoop, my bad. Just have to start your chase at a higher number or have your unit size small enough to sustain a chase. still like the math on this and the fact that wagerline or logans is not looking forward to giving 100 k away again.
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 6:08 PM ET #20

    HOU +7.5 .....2u  (win)

    YTD: 3-2 (-2u's)


    Carolina +175 (risk 4u's) ...pending
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    HOU +7.5 .....2u  (win)

    YTD: 3-2 (-2u's)


    Carolina +175 (risk 4u's) ...pending
     
    hoop121
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 7:58 PM ET #21

    who did you fade for the rockets game? i noticed kohli is only updating his picks a few minutes before game time. i guess trying to shake off the faders.

    in other news, i'm currently the #1 NBA Handicapper on you capper . com and I've made $300 the last week!!!
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    who did you fade for the rockets game? i noticed kohli is only updating his picks a few minutes before game time. i guess trying to shake off the faders.

    in other news, i'm currently the #1 NBA Handicapper on you capper . com and I've made $300 the last week!!!
     
    Local-DJ
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 8:16 PM ET #22

    left my house thinking kohli wasn't gonna pick. When I got back saw he had one pending and the game had already started. No pick today. I will try to catch his next one.

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    left my house thinking kohli wasn't gonna pick. When I got back saw he had one pending and the game had already started. No pick today. I will try to catch his next one.

     
    Local-DJ
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 8:18 PM ET #23

    Why these guys would try to shake off faders is beyond me. Its not about what Im doing hopefully its about what he's trying to accomplish
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    Why these guys would try to shake off faders is beyond me. Its not about what Im doing hopefully its about what he's trying to accomplish
     
    GreenMachine22
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    Posted: May. 11, 2009 - 11:52 AM ET #24

    The HOU fade play was courtesy of "eagle1956" who had 12 straight wins.



    CAROLINA +175 (loss)

    YTD: 3-3 (-6u)
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    The HOU fade play was courtesy of "eagle1956" who had 12 straight wins.



    CAROLINA +175 (loss)

    YTD: 3-3 (-6u)
     
     
    GreenMachine22
    GreenMachine22
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    Joined: Jan, 2008
    Posts: 3343
    Posted: May. 11, 2009 - 12:02 PM ET #25

    So far this morning, one 2u play is posted.  I'll try and check back later to see if any other cappers (12+ wins) have posted any more.

    russyboy56 (12 wins) picks DAL -1.5.....fade play = DEN +1.5 (2.2u = 2.0u)
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    So far this morning, one 2u play is posted.  I'll try and check back later to see if any other cappers (12+ wins) have posted any more.

    russyboy56 (12 wins) picks DAL -1.5.....fade play = DEN +1.5 (2.2u = 2.0u)
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