usaKangy's NHL Chase system from last year...

Wow, missed a great weekend here, Gonna tail today, BoL

 THANKS

Seriously!  This system has been red-hot.  Ride it while it lasts!!  Thanks to Kangy and Gasman and everyone else who has kept it going!!

 Sunday!!!

But looking at your in play list, I see Pit and NYI. I missunderstood. I thought only the OT/SO Home loser was the play. It is just the Home Team period. Ahh I get it

Heard about this thread and I had to see it for myself!!

Wow you guys have found something really great!!

How exactly does the betting work as far as the number of units you risk on A B or C bets etc....?

<-<-<-  THIS SYSTEM IS HOTTER THAN MY WIFE AND HER FRIEND

Do you also bet on the sides as well as the totals?

JONES GO BACK TO PAGE 1 IT WILL TELL YOU THE UNITS

Does anyone know the logic behind this system, or are we just going with it because it seems to work after Kangy backtested it? Don't get me wrong, just trying to understand.

Then don't be lazy and go back and read the previous posts.

 

You guys want to just jump in here after 2 months and expect people to go over everything again.

 

Do some work and read thru.   Everything is right there for you.  There is no need to keep re posting the same thngs over and over again.

 

Best of Luck

Go back and READ     its all there for you

 

Best of Luck

Puppet, I've read the whole thread and nowhere does it mention any logic to this system. I understand how to IMPLEMENT the system but the only thing that has been offered for why logically this system might work is that there isn't any reason for it to work. It's not like the other system I use for football where you parlay the underdog to the under and the favorite to the over. That system has logic behind it and hits about 67% winners. I've been around plenty and with no reason for the results to come in the way they do, we could just as well throw darts to pick the winners. There must be a reason for the teams to perform the way they do after an OT/SO game.

puppet, I should have said that I had already ready the whole thread before posting my original question.

yea i had the same question as you kkirby99. i wonder what the logic behind this system is.

I don't believe that any sort of logic behind this system has been discussed in this thread...Maybe gasman or kangy can shed some light on this...as you can see, this thread started with the discussion of additional filters that could be applied to the chase system they followed last season...At this point, for whatever reason, it's producing winners and that's good enough for me :)

just tryed to place my bets 3 games or so are off the board...hmmm

maybe they started at 7pm

Bad night  Things were due to cool off...have to get them on the B bets

kkirby...where can we find more details about the NFL parlay system you're talking about?

Check out a thread started by whitakp under this category.

YTD 119-10


Monday, December 14th recap:
Florida / NY ISLANDERS [A] - Under 5.5
ATLANTA [A] / NY Rangers - Over 6
NASHVILLE [A] / Columbus - Under 5.5
LOS ANGELES [A] / Vancouver - Under 5.5


Pending series:
NYI [B]
ATL [B]
PIT [A]
NAS [B]
NYR [A]

Tuesday, December 15th plays:
Philadelphia / PITTSBURGH [A] - Over 6.0
Tampa Bay / NASHVILLE [B] - Under 5.5

Well, I must say, got a bunch of "newbie posters" coming and here and questioning the logic of the system...

Truth is... there IS no logic to it and that's what makes the system work.  Along with other chases everyone else has tried these days (a home chase, a road chase, a three game loss chase, a three game win chase, etc.) , the original system was started by expertcapper (since banned from Covers) and tracked by himself, gasman and a few others.  I took the system and did my own research into the OT system tracking it various ways (2 game chases, 3 game chases, home teams only, etc.) until I noticed a pattern for the games.  I devised four systems A, B, C and D based on my findings.  Although my original thread can no longer be found on Covers (it probably got the boot with expertcapper), I will try to find the original threads of the original system tracked. 


My best guess of the totals is this...  Most of the observed games have a tendency to finish somewhere between 5-6 goals.  If there are 5 goals scored, the possible scores are 5-0, 4-1, 3-2.  A third of the time the games will end in 3-2.  For totals of 6, there are 6-0, 5-1, and 4-2.  Prior to a few years ago, a game could end in a tie, but this is no longer the case.

All OT and shootout games are settled with an odd number of goals scored (e.g. 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc), many of them going 3-2.

I have always been one to contradict the public.  My intuition is that if the oddsmaker sets a total low, the games will usually go lower.  If they are high, there is usually a good reason and the game would have a tendency to fly over the total.

So, I took the totals of 5.0 and 6.0 as my benchmarks.  The theory is, most teams will score at least 2 goals per game.  If the total is 5, this usually means if the game is tied at 2 after regulation, someone is going to win 3-2 (hence a push, and why you see most of the public better over 5.0 totals).  For a total on the high end, 6, these tend to go over as well, usually ending up 3-3, 4-3, so on.  If the game ends up 3-3 after regulation, someone is going to win 4-3, and hence win your over 6 bet).  With the logic of scoring two goals per game per team, there is only one OT score that can finish under 5.5, that is the 3-2 score, and that score tends to occur much more often than any other scoring combination.  This is why the system calls for a play of UNDER when the total is 5.5.

As for the logic of OT/SO, my only guess is the fact that we needed a way of starting the chase.  After trying different scenarios and seeing them fail (home team chase, away team chase, etc.), I have found that using the OT games as the base mark were the most profitable.  If you start to chase a home team that is #1 in scoring and your totals are always 5.5, you will most likely lose your chase.  As a result, filters need to be put into place to deal with them.  After careful consideration, I started to track my variant of the unmodified system with certain parameters (given in post #1).  With THIS system, there are NO filters.  Any team can participate in a chase.   A system, by definition, should exclude no team!!! 


I would be remissed to say, this system failed two years ago due to rule changes (a lot more 6.5 and even 7.0 totals were listed), however very very profitable with the scoring rules of today.  Last year was a great season, this year looks to be equally if not more profitable.  If I start to see more 6.5 totals, or the scoring rules change, then the system will need to be shelved.  Another thing I changed from last season, I am using Labourchere method this season and spreading any losses across my lines to be picked up by the next few wins.  Slow and steady wins the race....

Right now, ride it while it's hot.

As Paul Harvey so brilliantly states....  Now you know the rest of the story...  Now let's make some more money and don't question what works!!  

AMEN BROTHER

Do you have to use the
1 Unit for A
2 unit for B
4 Unit for C

To make this work or can you just stick with 1 unit across the board?
Assuming 1 unit is 100

if you wager 1 unit on A and lose

then you wager 1 unit on B and win

you will end up losing the juice for the series.  There is no point.

But you could figure that out, right?

Nice 1st post though.

Best of Luck