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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Under 7.5 Over 10.5 System

    12 Next Last»
    EliudsinhoAA
    neilsy25
    kkirby99
    WebLexIndyPhila
    jv040
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 1393
    Posts: 30
    12 Next Last»
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 11, 2010 - 4:40 PM ET #1

    Rules

    1. 7.5 Lines or less bet under

    2. 10.5 Lines or more bet over

    3. If the line moves you have to adjust to the opening line

    Current Record MLB 2010 (52-42) No units im gonna track this system starting today

    GL

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Rules

    1. 7.5 Lines or less bet under

    2. 10.5 Lines or more bet over

    3. If the line moves you have to adjust to the opening line

    Current Record MLB 2010 (52-42) No units im gonna track this system starting today

    GL

     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 11, 2010 - 4:44 PM ET #2

    YTD (0-0-0)

    5/11 Plays:

    1. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -120

    ALL PLAYS 1 Unit

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    YTD (0-0-0)

    5/11 Plays:

    1. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -120

    ALL PLAYS 1 Unit

     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 11, 2010 - 5:08 PM ET #3

    • 4 april 0-0        5 april 1-6   6 april 0-0        7 april 0-1
    • 8 april 0-0        9 april 0-0  10 april 0-1     11 april 2-2
    • 12 april 1-1     13 april 0-1  14 april 2-0     15 april 1-2
    • 16 april 1-2     17 april 3-1   18 april 1-3     19 april 1-0
    • 20 april 1-0      21 april 3-0   22 april 0-0      23 april 3-0
    • 24 april 2-1     25 april 4-0    26 april 3-0     27 april 2-1
    • 28 april 1-1     29 april 2-3    30 april 5-1     1 may 2-1
    • 2 may 2-0       3 may 0-2     4 may 2-1       5 may 0-2
    • 6 may 1-1       7 may 2-2     8 may 1-1       9 may 2-4
    • 10 may 1-1
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    • 4 april 0-0        5 april 1-6   6 april 0-0        7 april 0-1
    • 8 april 0-0        9 april 0-0  10 april 0-1     11 april 2-2
    • 12 april 1-1     13 april 0-1  14 april 2-0     15 april 1-2
    • 16 april 1-2     17 april 3-1   18 april 1-3     19 april 1-0
    • 20 april 1-0      21 april 3-0   22 april 0-0      23 april 3-0
    • 24 april 2-1     25 april 4-0    26 april 3-0     27 april 2-1
    • 28 april 1-1     29 april 2-3    30 april 5-1     1 may 2-1
    • 2 may 2-0       3 may 0-2     4 may 2-1       5 may 0-2
    • 6 may 1-1       7 may 2-2     8 may 1-1       9 may 2-4
    • 10 may 1-1
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 11, 2010 - 5:11 PM ET #4

    5th april was ver ugly 1-6 however the system goes to a 51-36 Run!58.6%

    Thats why i want to track it

    any comments?

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    5th april was ver ugly 1-6 however the system goes to a 51-36 Run!58.6%

    Thats why i want to track it

    any comments?

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posted: May. 11, 2010 - 8:42 PM ET #5

    doesnt work in the long run..query it on sportsdatabase..
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    doesnt work in the long run..query it on sportsdatabase..
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 12, 2010 - 11:33 AM ET #6

    YTD (1-0-0) + 1 Unit

    Under Record (1-0-0) 1 Unit

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/12 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Padres/GIants Under 7.5 -121

    Overs

    1. Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5 -106

    5/11 Plays:

    1. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -120

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    YTD (1-0-0) + 1 Unit

    Under Record (1-0-0) 1 Unit

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/12 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Padres/GIants Under 7.5 -121

    Overs

    1. Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5 -106

    5/11 Plays:

    1. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -120

     
    kkirby99
    kkirby99
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    Posted: May. 12, 2010 - 12:22 PM ET #7

    But will it work using a labby?  If this was to just maintain a 50% win rate it would be profitable.
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    But will it work using a labby?  If this was to just maintain a 50% win rate it would be profitable.
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 12, 2010 - 12:44 PM ET #8

    what do you mean?
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    what do you mean?
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 12, 2010 - 12:47 PM ET #9

    YTD (1-0-0) + 1 Unit

    Under Record (1-0-0) 1 Unit

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/12 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Padres/GIants Under 7.5 -121

    Overs

    1. G2 Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5 -106

    5/11 Plays:

    1. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -120

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    YTD (1-0-0) + 1 Unit

    Under Record (1-0-0) 1 Unit

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/12 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Padres/GIants Under 7.5 -121

    Overs

    1. G2 Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5 -106

    5/11 Plays:

    1. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -120

     
    WebLexIndyPhila
    WebLexIndyPhila
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    Posted: May. 12, 2010 - 6:14 PM ET #10

    i like the thought process behind your system boss. 

    that 4/4 to 4/19 stretch wasn't so hot for the system, but that is a little more understandable at the beginning of a long baseball system...when everything is volatile...for both the bettors and the books.   

    However, if you strike out that initial window where the system went 13-20 (7 under)....the next 16 days is pretty ridiculous.  The way I have it tallied, you are looking at 32-13...or a smoking hot 19 games over 500.  Take the juice out and put a c-note on each play...and your up almost 1800 bucks.  (less for me...as my book charges 6/5 juice on most baseball over/unders)

    Since that 2nd window of 16 days, I have it at 8-9 over the last 6 days. 

    Would be interesting to see whether that same time frame (3rd and 4th week of season) nets similar results in previous seasons.  Would be hard to believe...but something to put in the NOTE TO SELF spreadsheet. 

    Best of luck to you man. 

     

      

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    i like the thought process behind your system boss. 

    that 4/4 to 4/19 stretch wasn't so hot for the system, but that is a little more understandable at the beginning of a long baseball system...when everything is volatile...for both the bettors and the books.   

    However, if you strike out that initial window where the system went 13-20 (7 under)....the next 16 days is pretty ridiculous.  The way I have it tallied, you are looking at 32-13...or a smoking hot 19 games over 500.  Take the juice out and put a c-note on each play...and your up almost 1800 bucks.  (less for me...as my book charges 6/5 juice on most baseball over/unders)

    Since that 2nd window of 16 days, I have it at 8-9 over the last 6 days. 

    Would be interesting to see whether that same time frame (3rd and 4th week of season) nets similar results in previous seasons.  Would be hard to believe...but something to put in the NOTE TO SELF spreadsheet. 

    Best of luck to you man. 

     

      

     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 2:15 AM ET #11

    YTD (2-0-0) + 2 Units

    Under Record (2-0-0) 2 Units

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/13 Plays

    Unders

    1. Astros/Cards Under 7.5 -119

    2. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -105

    3. Mets/Marlins Under 7.5 -124

    4. Mariners/Orioles Under 7.5 -117

    5. Indians/Royals Under 7.5 -102

    Overs

    No Play

    Yesterday Plays

    5/12 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Padres/GIants Under 7.5 -121

    Overs

    1. G2 Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5 -106

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    YTD (2-0-0) + 2 Units

    Under Record (2-0-0) 2 Units

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/13 Plays

    Unders

    1. Astros/Cards Under 7.5 -119

    2. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -105

    3. Mets/Marlins Under 7.5 -124

    4. Mariners/Orioles Under 7.5 -117

    5. Indians/Royals Under 7.5 -102

    Overs

    No Play

    Yesterday Plays

    5/12 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Padres/GIants Under 7.5 -121

    Overs

    1. G2 Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5 -106

     
    jv040
    jv040
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 11:29 AM ET #12

    there was a similar system that came through my e-mail put out by statfox sheets.  the rules were to bet on the under if the line was 10 or above but it was only a bet if both teams were above .500  pct if played that way the results were excellent.
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    there was a similar system that came through my e-mail put out by statfox sheets.  the rules were to bet on the under if the line was 10 or above but it was only a bet if both teams were above .500  pct if played that way the results were excellent.
     
    vrifma
    vrifma
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 11:31 AM ET #13

    total<7.5 or total>10.5
    SU: 954-954 (0.0 rpg) average line: -106 / -106 on / against: -$4,925 / -$4,925 ROI: -2.1% / -2.1%
    O/U: 812-922-174 (0.2 rpg) average total: 9.5 over / under: -$20,150 / +$2,680 ROI: -9.6% / +1.3%
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    total<7.5 or total>10.5
    SU: 954-954 (0.0 rpg) average line: -106 / -106 on / against: -$4,925 / -$4,925 ROI: -2.1% / -2.1%
    O/U: 812-922-174 (0.2 rpg) average total: 9.5 over / under: -$20,150 / +$2,680 ROI: -9.6% / +1.3%
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 12:21 PM ET #14

    April 2009 Record (31-22-3) 58.49%

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    April 2009 Record (31-22-3) 58.49%

     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 12:34 PM ET #15

    May 2009 Record (34-41-5) 45.33%

     

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    May 2009 Record (34-41-5) 45.33%

     

     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 12:45 PM ET #16

    June 2009 Record (25-37) 40.32%
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    June 2009 Record (25-37) 40.32%
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 12:57 PM ET #17

    July 2009 Record (30-25) 54.54%
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    July 2009 Record (30-25) 54.54%
     
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 1:07 PM ET #18

    August 2009 Record (30-29) 50.84%
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    August 2009 Record (30-29) 50.84%
     
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 1:19 PM ET #19

    September 2009 Record (22-20) 52.38%
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    September 2009 Record (22-20) 52.38%
     
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 1:22 PM ET #20

    October 2009 Record (5-4) 55.55%

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    October 2009 Record (5-4) 55.55%

     
    EliudsinhoAA
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 1:23 PM ET #21

    Regular Season 2009 Record (177-178) 49.85%

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    Regular Season 2009 Record (177-178) 49.85%

     
    WebLexIndyPhila
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    Posted: May. 13, 2010 - 11:44 PM ET #22

    Anyone know if the sports database that Neilsy referenced above costs money to use?  

    Eli- not sure where you pulled your numbers from...but thanks for posting them up.  (I'm not sure about your April stats from 2009 though). 

    This is what I have so far, as I went through the day-by-day using Covers numbers from last year.  I got the first 4 weeks of 2009, from April 5 to May 3, tallied the following way:

    When betting UNDER on every 7.5 or lower total, and OVER on every 10.5 or higher total:  37 wins, 40 losses

    The UNDER bets on 7.5 or lower was 12-21

    The OVER on 10.5 or higher was 25-19

    One interesting stat I did notice...not sure if there is anything to it.  I saw a lot of games with an o/u right on 10.  On just those games alone in the same time period.....playing the Over on all games at ten, record was 16-8 (and 4 pushes).

     

     

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    Anyone know if the sports database that Neilsy referenced above costs money to use?  

    Eli- not sure where you pulled your numbers from...but thanks for posting them up.  (I'm not sure about your April stats from 2009 though). 

    This is what I have so far, as I went through the day-by-day using Covers numbers from last year.  I got the first 4 weeks of 2009, from April 5 to May 3, tallied the following way:

    When betting UNDER on every 7.5 or lower total, and OVER on every 10.5 or higher total:  37 wins, 40 losses

    The UNDER bets on 7.5 or lower was 12-21

    The OVER on 10.5 or higher was 25-19

    One interesting stat I did notice...not sure if there is anything to it.  I saw a lot of games with an o/u right on 10.  On just those games alone in the same time period.....playing the Over on all games at ten, record was 16-8 (and 4 pushes).

     

     

     
    Lippsman
    Lippsman
    Covers Linesmen
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2001
    Posts: 87445
    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 10:15 AM ET #23

    I believe it makes a difference on the AL and NL games also.  An over in the NL is much tougher to hit than an over of 10.5 in the AL.  And just reverse that for the unders.
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    I believe it makes a difference on the AL and NL games also.  An over in the NL is much tougher to hit than an over of 10.5 in the AL.  And just reverse that for the unders.
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2007
    Posts: 548
    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 6:07 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by WebLexIndyPhila:

    Anyone know if the sports database that Neilsy referenced above costs money to use?  

    Eli- not sure where you pulled your numbers from...but thanks for posting them up.  (I'm not sure about your April stats from 2009 though). 

    This is what I have so far, as I went through the day-by-day using Covers numbers from last year.  I got the first 4 weeks of 2009, from April 5 to May 3, tallied the following way:

    When betting UNDER on every 7.5 or lower total, and OVER on every 10.5 or higher total:  37 wins, 40 losses

    The UNDER bets on 7.5 or lower was 12-21

    The OVER on 10.5 or higher was 25-19

    One interesting stat I did notice...not sure if there is anything to it.  I saw a lot of games with an o/u right on 10.  On just those games alone in the same time period.....playing the Over on all games at ten, record was 16-8 (and 4 pushes).

     

     

    From www.scoresandodds.com

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by WebLexIndyPhila:

    Anyone know if the sports database that Neilsy referenced above costs money to use?  

    Eli- not sure where you pulled your numbers from...but thanks for posting them up.  (I'm not sure about your April stats from 2009 though). 

    This is what I have so far, as I went through the day-by-day using Covers numbers from last year.  I got the first 4 weeks of 2009, from April 5 to May 3, tallied the following way:

    When betting UNDER on every 7.5 or lower total, and OVER on every 10.5 or higher total:  37 wins, 40 losses

    The UNDER bets on 7.5 or lower was 12-21

    The OVER on 10.5 or higher was 25-19

    One interesting stat I did notice...not sure if there is anything to it.  I saw a lot of games with an o/u right on 10.  On just those games alone in the same time period.....playing the Over on all games at ten, record was 16-8 (and 4 pushes).

     

     

    From www.scoresandodds.com

     

     
     
    EliudsinhoAA
    EliudsinhoAA
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2007
    Posts: 548
    Posted: May. 14, 2010 - 6:13 PM ET #25

    YTD (5-2-0) + 2.81 Units

    Under Record (5-2-0) +2.81Units

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/14 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Dodgers/Padres Under 7.5 +109

    Overs

    No plays

    5/13 Plays:

    Unders (3-2) + .81

    1. Astros/Cards Under 7.5 -119

    2. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -105

    3. Mets/Marlins Under 7.5 -124

    4. Mariners/Orioles Under 7.5 -117

    5. Indians/Royals Under 7.5 -102

    Overs

    No Play

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    YTD (5-2-0) + 2.81 Units

    Under Record (5-2-0) +2.81Units

    Over Record (0-0-0)

    5/14 Plays:

    Unders

    1. Dodgers/Padres Under 7.5 +109

    Overs

    No plays

    5/13 Plays:

    Unders (3-2) + .81

    1. Astros/Cards Under 7.5 -119

    2. Padres/Giants Under 7.5 -105

    3. Mets/Marlins Under 7.5 -124

    4. Mariners/Orioles Under 7.5 -117

    5. Indians/Royals Under 7.5 -102

    Overs

    No Play

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