Posted:
#1
Been floating around on this forum for about a week and found tons of great information. I just joined up today and thought I would share something I just started trying out.
It's an nba chase system like JM's but I'm using the RPI ratings.
Basically it's three straight games at home or 3 straight away games where a team plays 3 straight against teams that have a lower RPI. I've got 2 and a half years worth of data but the RPI ratings are not exact because I can only find end of the year RPI data. Taking that into account I counted series where a team was slightly above the team I would bet on just in case at the time they played it may have been different. Also it does not matter if it's the beginning, middle, or end of a road trip or home stand.
Here's what I have so far. This data is on a system of buying 3 points. I'm using the free area on The Gold Sheet for my back testing. They don't have '08 - '09 posted on there.
2009-2010total Home Away
A 24 - 13 A 10 - 6 A 14 - 7
B 11 - 1 B 4 - 0 B 7 - 0
C 1 - 0 C 1 - 0 C 0 - 0
2007- 2008total Home Away
A 51 - 29 A 22 - 15 A 29 - 14
B 15 - 14 B 10 - 5 B 5 - 9
C 8 - 2 C 4 - 1 C 8 - 1
2006 - 2007total Home Away
A 51 - 31 - 1 A 18 - 13 A 33 - 18 - 1
B 20 - 8 - 3 B 8 - 4 - 1 B 12 - 4
C 4 - 4 C 2 - 2 C 2 - 2
Using a few filters I can eliminate every loss but one during those seasons.
1. Eliminate April bets
2. Eliminate bets at the beginning of the season. Once 15 games or so have been played I think that's enough games to judge these teams.
3. Eliminate the top 2 rpi teams. They seem to lay way too many points
4. If two out of the three opponents are in the top 10 in rpi, do not bet.
These filters don't eliminate a whole lot of bets on the winning side, so I don't mind them.
I ran into most of my issues on the home teams. Road teams seem to be solid buying 3 points. Where it gets dicey with the home teams is when they play 3 straight against the same conference. A lot of C bets on those. I can elimate all home losses but 1 if I bet the money line. One loss was GS in 07 - 08.
With these filters I eliminate all road losses but 2. One of which was a JM loss anyway (on his system prior to the houston loss this year), the other was the Lakers in 06 - 07.
I'm going to try to keep track of this and post when games come up. I'm going to stcik with the buying 3 points strategy for the sake of this record.
I just started betting this 2 days ago.
So far
A 1 - 1
B 0 - 0
C 0 - 0
Orlando got me one against Minn., B game on Utah at home against NO tomorrow. I am a little concerned on Utah though. 3 straight against the same conference, and all three are pretty close in RPI. How the hell does Denver win w/o Chauncey and Melo.
Let me know what you guys think. I don't mind insightful criticism. I know it's a rip off of JM, but he's ripped plenty of people as well. I haven't been gambling for too long and always enjoy anothers point of view.
Also for my own sake I'm going to try the Labby betting method on this. I'm not 100% sure I have the Labby system down yet so I'm going to experiment with it on this system. But for the records I'm just basing it on a chase system.
It's an nba chase system like JM's but I'm using the RPI ratings.
Basically it's three straight games at home or 3 straight away games where a team plays 3 straight against teams that have a lower RPI. I've got 2 and a half years worth of data but the RPI ratings are not exact because I can only find end of the year RPI data. Taking that into account I counted series where a team was slightly above the team I would bet on just in case at the time they played it may have been different. Also it does not matter if it's the beginning, middle, or end of a road trip or home stand.
Here's what I have so far. This data is on a system of buying 3 points. I'm using the free area on The Gold Sheet for my back testing. They don't have '08 - '09 posted on there.
2009-2010total Home Away
A 24 - 13 A 10 - 6 A 14 - 7
B 11 - 1 B 4 - 0 B 7 - 0
C 1 - 0 C 1 - 0 C 0 - 0
2007- 2008total Home Away
A 51 - 29 A 22 - 15 A 29 - 14
B 15 - 14 B 10 - 5 B 5 - 9
C 8 - 2 C 4 - 1 C 8 - 1
2006 - 2007total Home Away
A 51 - 31 - 1 A 18 - 13 A 33 - 18 - 1
B 20 - 8 - 3 B 8 - 4 - 1 B 12 - 4
C 4 - 4 C 2 - 2 C 2 - 2
Using a few filters I can eliminate every loss but one during those seasons.
1. Eliminate April bets
2. Eliminate bets at the beginning of the season. Once 15 games or so have been played I think that's enough games to judge these teams.
3. Eliminate the top 2 rpi teams. They seem to lay way too many points
4. If two out of the three opponents are in the top 10 in rpi, do not bet.
These filters don't eliminate a whole lot of bets on the winning side, so I don't mind them.
I ran into most of my issues on the home teams. Road teams seem to be solid buying 3 points. Where it gets dicey with the home teams is when they play 3 straight against the same conference. A lot of C bets on those. I can elimate all home losses but 1 if I bet the money line. One loss was GS in 07 - 08.
With these filters I eliminate all road losses but 2. One of which was a JM loss anyway (on his system prior to the houston loss this year), the other was the Lakers in 06 - 07.
I'm going to try to keep track of this and post when games come up. I'm going to stcik with the buying 3 points strategy for the sake of this record.
I just started betting this 2 days ago.
So far
A 1 - 1
B 0 - 0
C 0 - 0
Orlando got me one against Minn., B game on Utah at home against NO tomorrow. I am a little concerned on Utah though. 3 straight against the same conference, and all three are pretty close in RPI. How the hell does Denver win w/o Chauncey and Melo.
Let me know what you guys think. I don't mind insightful criticism. I know it's a rip off of JM, but he's ripped plenty of people as well. I haven't been gambling for too long and always enjoy anothers point of view.
Also for my own sake I'm going to try the Labby betting method on this. I'm not 100% sure I have the Labby system down yet so I'm going to experiment with it on this system. But for the records I'm just basing it on a chase system.
