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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Trying a different version of JM's NBA system

    COLtas
    Gothamcity
    Rackle15
    sahlsa
    KktdocT
    Participants:
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    Views: 603
    Posts: 5
     
    COLtas
    COLtas
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    Joined: Jan, 2010
    Posts: 1
    Posted: Jan. 3, 2010 - 12:56 PM ET #1

    Been floating around on this forum for about a week and found tons of great information.  I just joined up today and thought I would share something I just started trying out.
    It's an nba chase system like JM's but I'm using the RPI ratings. 
    Basically it's three straight games at home or 3 straight away games where a team plays 3 straight against teams that have a lower RPI.  I've got 2 and a half years worth of data but the RPI ratings are not exact because I can only find end of the year RPI data.  Taking that into account I counted series where a team was slightly above the team I would bet on just in case at the time they played it may have been different.  Also it does not matter if it's the beginning, middle, or end of a road trip or home stand.  

    Here's what I have so far.  This data is on a system of buying 3 points.  I'm using the free area on The Gold Sheet for my back testing.  They don't have '08 - '09 posted on there.

    2009-2010total          Home             Away
    A 24 - 13                 A 10 - 6          A 14 - 7
    B 11 - 1                   B 4 - 0            B 7 - 0
    C 1 - 0                     C 1 - 0            C 0 - 0

    2007- 2008total         Home             Away
    A 51 - 29                 A 22 - 15         A 29 - 14
    B 15 - 14                 B 10 - 5           B 5 - 9
    C 8 - 2                     C 4 - 1            C 8 - 1

    2006 - 2007total        Home             Away
    A 51 - 31 - 1             A 18 - 13         A 33 - 18 - 1
    B 20 - 8 - 3               B 8 - 4 - 1        B 12 - 4
    C 4 - 4                      C 2 - 2            C 2 - 2                  

    Using a few filters I can eliminate every loss but one during those seasons.
    1. Eliminate April bets
    2. Eliminate bets at the beginning of the season.  Once 15 games or so have been played I think that's enough games to judge these teams.
    3. Eliminate the top 2 rpi teams.  They seem to lay way too many points
    4. If two out of the three opponents are in the top 10 in rpi, do not bet.

    These filters don't eliminate a whole lot of bets on the winning side, so I don't mind them.

    I ran into most of my issues on the home teams.  Road teams seem to be solid buying 3 points.  Where it gets dicey with the home teams is when they play 3 straight against the same conference.  A lot of C bets on those.  I can elimate all home losses but 1 if I bet the money line.  One loss was GS in 07 - 08.
    With these filters I eliminate all road losses but 2.  One of which was a JM loss anyway (on his system prior to the houston loss this year), the other was the Lakers in 06 - 07.

    I'm going to try to keep track of this and post when games come up.  I'm going to stcik with the buying 3 points strategy for the sake of this record. 
    I just started betting this 2 days ago.
    So far
    A 1 - 1
    B 0 - 0
    C 0 - 0
    Orlando got me one against Minn., B game on Utah at home against NO tomorrow.  I am a little concerned on Utah though.  3 straight against the same conference, and all three are pretty close in RPI.  How the hell does Denver win w/o Chauncey and Melo.

    Let me know what you guys think.  I don't mind insightful criticism.  I know it's a rip off of JM, but he's ripped plenty of people as well.  I haven't been gambling for too long and always enjoy anothers point of view.

    Also for my own sake I'm going to try the Labby betting method on this.  I'm not 100% sure I have the Labby system down yet so I'm going to experiment with it on this system.  But for the records I'm just basing it on a chase system.


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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Been floating around on this forum for about a week and found tons of great information.  I just joined up today and thought I would share something I just started trying out.
    It's an nba chase system like JM's but I'm using the RPI ratings. 
    Basically it's three straight games at home or 3 straight away games where a team plays 3 straight against teams that have a lower RPI.  I've got 2 and a half years worth of data but the RPI ratings are not exact because I can only find end of the year RPI data.  Taking that into account I counted series where a team was slightly above the team I would bet on just in case at the time they played it may have been different.  Also it does not matter if it's the beginning, middle, or end of a road trip or home stand.  

    Here's what I have so far.  This data is on a system of buying 3 points.  I'm using the free area on The Gold Sheet for my back testing.  They don't have '08 - '09 posted on there.

    2009-2010total          Home             Away
    A 24 - 13                 A 10 - 6          A 14 - 7
    B 11 - 1                   B 4 - 0            B 7 - 0
    C 1 - 0                     C 1 - 0            C 0 - 0

    2007- 2008total         Home             Away
    A 51 - 29                 A 22 - 15         A 29 - 14
    B 15 - 14                 B 10 - 5           B 5 - 9
    C 8 - 2                     C 4 - 1            C 8 - 1

    2006 - 2007total        Home             Away
    A 51 - 31 - 1             A 18 - 13         A 33 - 18 - 1
    B 20 - 8 - 3               B 8 - 4 - 1        B 12 - 4
    C 4 - 4                      C 2 - 2            C 2 - 2                  

    Using a few filters I can eliminate every loss but one during those seasons.
    1. Eliminate April bets
    2. Eliminate bets at the beginning of the season.  Once 15 games or so have been played I think that's enough games to judge these teams.
    3. Eliminate the top 2 rpi teams.  They seem to lay way too many points
    4. If two out of the three opponents are in the top 10 in rpi, do not bet.

    These filters don't eliminate a whole lot of bets on the winning side, so I don't mind them.

    I ran into most of my issues on the home teams.  Road teams seem to be solid buying 3 points.  Where it gets dicey with the home teams is when they play 3 straight against the same conference.  A lot of C bets on those.  I can elimate all home losses but 1 if I bet the money line.  One loss was GS in 07 - 08.
    With these filters I eliminate all road losses but 2.  One of which was a JM loss anyway (on his system prior to the houston loss this year), the other was the Lakers in 06 - 07.

    I'm going to try to keep track of this and post when games come up.  I'm going to stcik with the buying 3 points strategy for the sake of this record. 
    I just started betting this 2 days ago.
    So far
    A 1 - 1
    B 0 - 0
    C 0 - 0
    Orlando got me one against Minn., B game on Utah at home against NO tomorrow.  I am a little concerned on Utah though.  3 straight against the same conference, and all three are pretty close in RPI.  How the hell does Denver win w/o Chauncey and Melo.

    Let me know what you guys think.  I don't mind insightful criticism.  I know it's a rip off of JM, but he's ripped plenty of people as well.  I haven't been gambling for too long and always enjoy anothers point of view.

    Also for my own sake I'm going to try the Labby betting method on this.  I'm not 100% sure I have the Labby system down yet so I'm going to experiment with it on this system.  But for the records I'm just basing it on a chase system.


     
    Gothamcity
    Gothamcity
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    Joined: Oct, 2009
    Posts: 20
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2010 - 1:37 AM ET #2

    Sounds promising. I'm sure you don't feel like researching this but I wonder what the records would be like with only buying 2 points. Using the labby method would make up for a few extra losses along the way if the 1 point caused additional losses. There are so many sportsbooks shutting people down from buying 3 points and overcharging for them that it might be worth it. GL
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    Sounds promising. I'm sure you don't feel like researching this but I wonder what the records would be like with only buying 2 points. Using the labby method would make up for a few extra losses along the way if the 1 point caused additional losses. There are so many sportsbooks shutting people down from buying 3 points and overcharging for them that it might be worth it. GL
     
    Rackle15
    Rackle15
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    Joined: Jan, 2010
    Posts: 42
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2010 - 3:46 AM ET #3

    I understand I will likely take some flack for asking, but what exactly is an A,B,and C bet??
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    I understand I will likely take some flack for asking, but what exactly is an A,B,and C bet??
     
    sahlsa
    sahlsa
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    Joined: Jul, 2008
    Posts: 288
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2010 - 5:56 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by Rackle15:

    I understand I will likely take some flack for asking, but what exactly is an A,B,and C bet??


    Reading one or two threads would give you this information or similar:

    Before I go into detail on how to make the bets, I will go over the money management system. There are only three bet values you should stick to: Bet A; Bet B; and Bet C.
    Bet A = Your beginning bet. I recommend you set your beginning bet at $100 when you first start out.
    Bet B = In case Bet A fails, you make bet B to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A, plus any profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A was $100, your Bet B can be $250.
    Bet C = In case Bet B fails, you make bet C to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A plus Bet B, plus profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A plus Bet B was $350, your Bet C can be $650.
    There is no Bet D, or E, or anything thereafter. If you lose Bet C, you lose the bet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rackle15:

    I understand I will likely take some flack for asking, but what exactly is an A,B,and C bet??


    Reading one or two threads would give you this information or similar:

    Before I go into detail on how to make the bets, I will go over the money management system. There are only three bet values you should stick to: Bet A; Bet B; and Bet C.
    Bet A = Your beginning bet. I recommend you set your beginning bet at $100 when you first start out.
    Bet B = In case Bet A fails, you make bet B to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A, plus any profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A was $100, your Bet B can be $250.
    Bet C = In case Bet B fails, you make bet C to make up for any loss you’ve suffered from Bet A plus Bet B, plus profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A plus Bet B was $350, your Bet C can be $650.
    There is no Bet D, or E, or anything thereafter. If you lose Bet C, you lose the bet.
     
     
    KktdocT
    KktdocT
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    Joined: Jan, 2006
    Posts: 66757
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2010 - 4:03 PM ET #5

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