All Forums | Systems & Strategies

Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2012-13

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 33772
Posts: 275
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #76
Tough call but I think you need to count it. Most people that would be betting this system would have put their bets in well before the 3 minute mark. Just my opinion.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #77

Trychome - Actually for your tracking purposes, this shouldn't be counted for an A game. This was game 2 of their 4 game homestand. They didn't qualify on Saturday 2/2 vs Edmonton. If I understand the rules of this system correctly, if they don't qualify for game 1 the chase is done. Correct?

That being said, they would have qualified for my double dip system since there were 3 games left.

Thoughts?

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 473
Posted: #78
Trychome - Maybe a cutoff time needs to be established, perhaps an hour before game time for the line to be finalized as a go or not.  Just an idea.

To Dan's point, if a team does not qualify for game 1, no chase correct?  Or if there are three games plus still left on a homestand and they qualify game 2, or even a game 3 with 2 more to go would the chase begin then???  
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 185
Posted: #79
ok i wont count it for the official record, but im going to continue to chase.  the title of the system is "opening game fav" so i would have to agree with you dan.  

@sweetdick - the 1 hour cutoff time sounds good.  I will personally chase a series if there are 3 games left and it qualifies in the first game of the series, but not if there are only 2 games left.  if there is a 4 game home stand and the first game doesnt qualify, it wouldnt qualify for the system since it is not the "opening" game and it wouldnt count as a double dip since it technically wouldnt be "double" but i'll leave that up to dan
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 185
Posted: #80
where is therizz when you need him. haha
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 185
Posted: #81
A - OTT
A - STL

possibly A - WIN (will check 1 hour before game time
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 185
Posted: #82
sorry for the quad post.  WIN doesnt count. only 2 game stand. dunno wat i was looking at
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #83
Winnipeg only has a 2 game home stand. The other one that starts tonight is New Jersey - not going to qualify.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #84

Regarding Colorado from Monday, I think we move that series chase to the one I'm tracking since it wouldn't qualify under the original rules for the Open game favorite chase. Maybe I need to rename my the "Any series that doesn't qualify under the Open Day Game Favorite chase"

Series 5-0 (Colorado B game pending Wednesday)

A - 5-1
B - 0-0
C - 0-0
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 2304
Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by trychome:

where is therizz when you need him. haha


lurking trychrome, haha

COL was not a play the other night.  Has to be the first game of the series to trigger the chase.  I had STL and OTT tonight starting chases.  That is the only way that I backtested it.  You guys are doing a great job with it.  Will be interesting to see how the modifications work out this year that Danrules is doign.


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 473
Posted: #86
Damn, Nashville scored a touchdown on St. Louis!  Did everything but kick the extra point...lol!  
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 185
Posted: #87
@therizz - thanks for clearing that up. 
@sweetdick - haha. if we have to lose, id prefer it to be a blow out.  i hate losing during a shootout

Series 8-0
A - 7-2
B - 0-1
C - 1-0
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #88

Double dip** chase system

We have Col on a B game tonight.

Series 5-0 (Colorado B game pending Wednesday)

A - 5-1
B - 0-0
C - 0-0
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #89

Was brainstorming yesterday about this system and thought about fading teams on a 3 game or longer road trip. Without any filters here is what I came up with.

Current season: 10-0

2011/2012: 160-14

2010/2011: 141-21

Might be too many losses for a 3 game chase system, but I can look for some filters like not playing if road team is a fave in game 1.

Since I was pouring through data, I decided to check the double dip system.

Current season: 4-1 (Nashville, 2 on shootouts)

2011/2012: 96-6

2010/2011: 72-4

Also checked on if a 4 or more game road trip, just fading the last 3 games in a chase.

Current season: 3-1 (Nashville, 2 on shootouts)

2011/2012: 93-2

2010/2011: 80-8

Not sure what to make of all this, but I think I need to check a couple filters if possible.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 185
Posted: #90
are those series losses? if it is, i dont think the fade road teams thing is a good idea.

im also 2nd guessing the COL chase now. can anyone else with more NHL knowledge chime in on this?
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by trychome:

are those series losses? if it is, i dont think the fade road teams thing is a good idea.

im also 2nd guessing the COL chase now. can anyone else with more NHL knowledge chime in on this?

Yes series losses. I tried the road fave filter but that didn't do much. Think I'll add this to the scrap pile.

Regarding COL, I'm tracking it under my system to stay consistent but not betting it. I've bet all the other chases (yours and mine).

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 473
Posted: #92
Interesting stuff Dan.  Wonder if we plugged in a winning percentage filter similar to a baseball chase I follow would help reduce or eliminate the losses.  It might drastically reduce the wins as well, but just a thought.  

That way we would picking on the garbage teams and hopefully eliminating the losses.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 473
Posted: #93
Another thought, please remember I am not a hockey guy, but maybe goals for/goals against differential could be used as a filter to cut out most of the losses.  

Thanks for all your hard work Dan, I really think your on to something!  


 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

Another thought, please remember I am not a hockey guy, but maybe goals for/goals against differential could be used as a filter to cut out most of the losses.  

Thanks for all your hard work Dan, I really think your on to something!  


I did a quick check on those losses and quite a few were from bad teams that were serious road dogs. That filter will not work. I will give it some more thought though and see if I can find something for next year.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 909
Posted: #95
dan - how did the a, b, c games work out in those seasons.
if one is exceptionally good then i could see a labby chase working there.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 145
Posted: #96
Stl. B game today? 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #97

Yes STL B game tonight. Also, Ottawa on the double dip chase.

Series 5-0 (Colorado C game pending on Feb 11)

A - 5-1
B - 0-1
C - 0-0
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #98

Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

dan - how did the a, b, c games work out in those seasons.
if one is exceptionally good then i could see a labby chase working there.

I just did the 11/12 season and don't think it looks any better.

Regular 3 game chase (160-14 series, 160-90 overall):

A 97-44

B 45-32

C 18-14

Double dip chase (96-6 series, 96-72 overall)

A 56-46

B 26-20

C 14-6

Last 3 of a 4 or more road trip (94-3 series corrected, 94-69 overall)

A 49-48

B 30-18

C 15-3

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 185
Posted: #99
B - STL
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 909
Posted: #100
Dan, you don't see what I see? 29-9!! only playing the C games of those chases.
Back testing the C games of the other seasons would confirm if/how profitable a chase would be.
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.