Theory - Question - Help needed

Question

Hey guys,I&#x27;m noob at sportsbetting - and my english is not that good - so please be kind with me !I try to figure out some things - and get in trouble doing so, nose bleeding I would say.  Here is one of my tricky spot :Imagine i follow a tipster advice.  Says this tipster have a proved 10% ROI (return on investment) for a decent sample size,When he post a tips, he give the line - and the odd.  For this exemple, we say &#x2B;150.  But by the time I put my wage on it - the line moved and the best avalaible odd is now &#x2B;140.Here I want to understand how this move impact on the supposed ROI of every single line.  The line reward me less - but in another side, the fact it moved that way may be a signal that money goes on that line - so the play was (or is still) pretty good to start with,If we take a &#x2B;150 line that moved to &#x2B;170, the scenario is quite different.  The &#x27;&#x27;reward&#x27;&#x27; if I get it right is higher, but the fact the line move that way may be a signal that the line was notthat good at all from the start.So HOW can I react to such lines move ?  I realy try to figure out the maths behind it - but im still miles from an answers.  So if someone can help me understand it, I would appreciate a lot.Thanks

soltantgris · Answer

Hey guys,I&#x27;m noob at sportsbetting - and my english is not that good - so please be kind with me !I try to figure out some things - and get in trouble doing so, nose bleeding I would say.  Here is one of my tricky spot :Imagine i follow a tipster advice.  Says this tipster have a proved 10% ROI (return on investment) for a decent sample size,When he post a tips, he give the line - and the odd.  For this exemple, we say &#x2B;150.  But by the time I put my wage on it - the line moved and the best avalaible odd is now &#x2B;140.Here I want to understand how this move impact on the supposed ROI of every single line.  The line reward me less - but in another side, the fact it moved that way may be a signal that money goes on that line - so the play was (or is still) pretty good to start with,If we take a &#x2B;150 line that moved to &#x2B;170, the scenario is quite different.  The &#x27;&#x27;reward&#x27;&#x27; if I get it right is higher, but the fact the line move that way may be a signal that the line was notthat good at all from the start.So HOW can I react to such lines move ?  I realy try to figure out the maths behind it - but im still miles from an answers.  So if someone can help me understand it, I would appreciate a lot.Thanks

staf · Answer

You would need to determine the winning percentage needed at +150 to get the ROI of 10%. Then determine the ROI at +140 or +170.

If I've done the math right I get 44% at +150 for an ROI of 10%. +140 at 44% gives an ROI of 5.6% and +170 an ROI of 18.8%.

soltantgris · Answer

Thanks - but it is not the part that is difficult for me.  What is difficult is to considere the fact that a line moving into this or this direction may mean that the line was or was not good from the start.  So how to adjust.

Gogic · Answer

You don&#x27;t adjust. Lines move &amp; you will never be able to replicate the bets 100%. You just bet what you can get.

soltantgris · Answer

I don&#x27;t get this answers.  Put it that way : I bet if the line is &#x2B;150 ?  And if its now &#x2B;120 ?  Or -110 ?  I have to adjust somewhat.

Gogic · Answer

You were saying some of the lines get better & some get worse. If that's an evenish split it will even out in the long run & you take what you can get.

However, if you're getting mostly lower lines the question is how far off are you on average & what's the ROI of the punter you're following. Without exact data, there is no correct answer what you should do here.

Either way, you don't mess with posted stakes & you follow/skip/fade depending on the data.

staf · Answer

Kelly stakinghttps://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

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