I'm a big MLB fan but a terrible bettor at it. I've accepted I'm never going to make money from betting it so I am therefore in the vast majority of sports bettors and in terms of the amount I bet I'm very much a recreational bettor.
That said, I'm going to start tracking a simplistic system on F5 bets (Moneyline, or 0 handicap) whereby I isolate bad pitchers and bad teams. For that reason there's probably likely to be a little bit of juice laid, which is probably not going to be ideal, however whilst I'm probably square in saying this, I'd rather lay juice fading a bad team than try and "catch a falling knife" with a bad team or pitcher and hope to get lucky.
The system concentrates on the starting pitchers in their L5 starts, which is readily available off the Covers print sheets. I also am using TeamRankings website to sort teams on recent performance.
I would like to see if I can't at least break even. As I said I'm a recreational bettor this is very simplistic and takes less than 5 minutes per day. There's no particular theory for starting right now before the ASG and I have not backtested this at all.
I will bet 1 unit flat. I will write each bet as "1U to collect xU" and then give the American odds
The first bet is St Louis Cardinals F5 (Mikolas)
1U to collect 1.5U (-200)
Cheers
BF
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hey guys,
I'm a big MLB fan but a terrible bettor at it. I've accepted I'm never going to make money from betting it so I am therefore in the vast majority of sports bettors and in terms of the amount I bet I'm very much a recreational bettor.
That said, I'm going to start tracking a simplistic system on F5 bets (Moneyline, or 0 handicap) whereby I isolate bad pitchers and bad teams. For that reason there's probably likely to be a little bit of juice laid, which is probably not going to be ideal, however whilst I'm probably square in saying this, I'd rather lay juice fading a bad team than try and "catch a falling knife" with a bad team or pitcher and hope to get lucky.
The system concentrates on the starting pitchers in their L5 starts, which is readily available off the Covers print sheets. I also am using TeamRankings website to sort teams on recent performance.
I would like to see if I can't at least break even. As I said I'm a recreational bettor this is very simplistic and takes less than 5 minutes per day. There's no particular theory for starting right now before the ASG and I have not backtested this at all.
I will bet 1 unit flat. I will write each bet as "1U to collect xU" and then give the American odds
1U to collect 1.86U (-116) ***I'm certain you could get better lines than this, I'm using my book. Not betting enough to warrant line shopping ATM but I do know it's a bad line***
Cheers
BF
0
1st bet won.
2nd play is today
Baltimore F5 (Gausman)
1U to collect 1.86U (-116) ***I'm certain you could get better lines than this, I'm using my book. Not betting enough to warrant line shopping ATM but I do know it's a bad line***
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