Okay fellas I've kept my eye on this "magic number" since last season. I don't have an official record or anything but the success rate stuck out in my head so much that I remembered this season and started following it again.
Homes teams laying 5 seem to cover regularly. Road teams still work but it can be less consistent
GL
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Okay fellas I've kept my eye on this "magic number" since last season. I don't have an official record or anything but the success rate stuck out in my head so much that I remembered this season and started following it again.
Homes teams laying 5 seem to cover regularly. Road teams still work but it can be less consistent
Louisville is on the road but I will be taking this game and including this in the system play. I like home teams better but there's still value on -5's on the road.
Adding a Game...
Louisville -5 @ Cincy
Louisville is on the road but I will be taking this game and including this in the system play. I like home teams better but there's still value on -5's on the road.
Just a few ?? Lines move and some books give better or worse odds than others. What happens if the line is 4.5 or 5.5 because of a line change? Do you have any stats on that?? Just wondering. Thanks for any info you have.
Just a few ?? Lines move and some books give better or worse odds than others. What happens if the line is 4.5 or 5.5 because of a line change? Do you have any stats on that?? Just wondering. Thanks for any info you have.
Can anyone explain why this works? I'd really like to know the theory behind this one
Taking away the imbedded 3 or 4 points for home court advantage, the line still implies that the favored team is slightly superior. And with just -5 points, it's easy for cheap fouls at the end to cover the spread when the game is close. So you have a slightly superior team with home court advantage and a small line... that'd be my guess.
Quote Originally Posted by bobtemp2:
Can anyone explain why this works? I'd really like to know the theory behind this one
Taking away the imbedded 3 or 4 points for home court advantage, the line still implies that the favored team is slightly superior. And with just -5 points, it's easy for cheap fouls at the end to cover the spread when the game is close. So you have a slightly superior team with home court advantage and a small line... that'd be my guess.
snook, said it best, there's no science to it, it's just a trend i've noticed over the last two seasons.
it really seems to work well, obviously we should always use a little judgement when making our picks, it's not just a blind -5 play. As we move into the lesser conferences it seems like it's less consistent and there's greater chance of upsets and mediocrity is unpredictable.
snook, said it best, there's no science to it, it's just a trend i've noticed over the last two seasons.
it really seems to work well, obviously we should always use a little judgement when making our picks, it's not just a blind -5 play. As we move into the lesser conferences it seems like it's less consistent and there's greater chance of upsets and mediocrity is unpredictable.
nvmclovin, to be honest line movement doesn't concern me and it's not a science, so of course if a spread opens at 5 and moves up to 5.5 yeah i'd still take it but i like to stay true to the -5 lines.
like last night Utah stayed strong at -5 for the entire day.
there's no reason to force plays set at 4.5 or 5.5 if you don't like the play. for this thread and this "system" i'm just trying to keep track of -5's at home and then if a -5 on the road that i really like should present itself like Louisville and Syracuse this week, yeah we jump all over it.
nvmclovin, to be honest line movement doesn't concern me and it's not a science, so of course if a spread opens at 5 and moves up to 5.5 yeah i'd still take it but i like to stay true to the -5 lines.
like last night Utah stayed strong at -5 for the entire day.
there's no reason to force plays set at 4.5 or 5.5 if you don't like the play. for this thread and this "system" i'm just trying to keep track of -5's at home and then if a -5 on the road that i really like should present itself like Louisville and Syracuse this week, yeah we jump all over it.
interesting card today, the only -5's are on the road tonight and there's only one game that i'd truly consider... West Virgina -5 @ Cincy.
This play won't be as easy as 'Cuse vs. St. Johns by any means which was an absolute gift. But I do believe UWV is a superior squad but this could be a tough spot because they are on the road against a bubble team needing a big win.
However, looking at UWV's schedule on the road (6-4), all 4 losses have come in big east play verse the top 4 teams in the conference. Losses to Pitt, Louisville, Marquette and UConn. Not many teams would go into any of these gyms and win a game.
I see UWV pulling this one off.
UWV -5
interesting card today, the only -5's are on the road tonight and there's only one game that i'd truly consider... West Virgina -5 @ Cincy.
This play won't be as easy as 'Cuse vs. St. Johns by any means which was an absolute gift. But I do believe UWV is a superior squad but this could be a tough spot because they are on the road against a bubble team needing a big win.
However, looking at UWV's schedule on the road (6-4), all 4 losses have come in big east play verse the top 4 teams in the conference. Losses to Pitt, Louisville, Marquette and UConn. Not many teams would go into any of these gyms and win a game.
WV does have a sizable stat advantage is most categories. But can they overcome a decent bubble team at home? What the hell, I'm in for a small play. Let's go Mountaineers and five point theory.
WV does have a sizable stat advantage is most categories. But can they overcome a decent bubble team at home? What the hell, I'm in for a small play. Let's go Mountaineers and five point theory.
Bad play last night on my behalf, I apologize it was def. a forced play. Not a good spot for UWV but I strongly believe if this system is used with a little more discipline it can be very useful and lucrative.
That being said there is another -5 play today in the ivy leagues. I'm not thrilled with this game but I believe in the system and I will make a small play on it tonight.
Harvard -5
0-1 last night, 6-4 overall (60%)
2-1 road teams laying 5, 4-3 home teams laying 5
Bad play last night on my behalf, I apologize it was def. a forced play. Not a good spot for UWV but I strongly believe if this system is used with a little more discipline it can be very useful and lucrative.
That being said there is another -5 play today in the ivy leagues. I'm not thrilled with this game but I believe in the system and I will make a small play on it tonight.
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