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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Teams ATS after a Bye Week

    powerade
    Tomspeople
    STEVEPERRY
    ChanceP
    Stake24
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    powerade
    powerade
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2008 - 10:11 PM ET #1

    Over the last 8 years.....
     
    Home Faves: 55-50
    Home Dogs:  19-28-2
     
    Road Faves:  37-12-1
    Road Dogs:   31-41
     
    Interesting thing about home faves is over the last 4 years they were 30-17, but the 4 years before that they were 25-33.....
     
    here is a breakdown of the home fave/dogs and road fave/dogs with the spreads....
     
    HomeFave   55-50
    (1-3) 13-18
    (3.5-7) 28-17
    (7.5-10) 9-11
    (10.5-14) 2-3
    (14.5-up) 3-1

    HomeDog    19-28-2
    (1-3) 9-11-1
    (3.5-7) 7-15-1
    (7.5-10) 2-0
    (10.5-14) 1-2
    (14.5-up)

    RoadFave   37-12-1
    (1-3) 15-5-1
    (3.5-7) 20-5
    (7.5-10) 1-1
    (10.5-14) 0-1
    (14.5-up) 1-0

    RoadDog    34-41 
    (1-3) 9-11-1
    (3.5-7) 13-18-1
    (7.5-10) 6-10
    (10.5-14) 3-1
    (14.5-up) 0-1
     
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    3-0
    HomeDog
    2-0
    RoadFave
    2-0
    RoadDog
    1-4
     
     
    This Sunday 10-19-08
    Titans -8 @ Chiefs
    Chargers -1 @ Bills
    Steelers -9 @ Bengals
        -Steelers and Titans look very good
     
     
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Over the last 8 years.....
     
    Home Faves: 55-50
    Home Dogs:  19-28-2
     
    Road Faves:  37-12-1
    Road Dogs:   31-41
     
    Interesting thing about home faves is over the last 4 years they were 30-17, but the 4 years before that they were 25-33.....
     
    here is a breakdown of the home fave/dogs and road fave/dogs with the spreads....
     
    HomeFave   55-50
    (1-3) 13-18
    (3.5-7) 28-17
    (7.5-10) 9-11
    (10.5-14) 2-3
    (14.5-up) 3-1

    HomeDog    19-28-2
    (1-3) 9-11-1
    (3.5-7) 7-15-1
    (7.5-10) 2-0
    (10.5-14) 1-2
    (14.5-up)

    RoadFave   37-12-1
    (1-3) 15-5-1
    (3.5-7) 20-5
    (7.5-10) 1-1
    (10.5-14) 0-1
    (14.5-up) 1-0

    RoadDog    34-41 
    (1-3) 9-11-1
    (3.5-7) 13-18-1
    (7.5-10) 6-10
    (10.5-14) 3-1
    (14.5-up) 0-1
     
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    3-0
    HomeDog
    2-0
    RoadFave
    2-0
    RoadDog
    1-4
     
     
    This Sunday 10-19-08
    Titans -8 @ Chiefs
    Chargers -1 @ Bills
    Steelers -9 @ Bengals
        -Steelers and Titans look very good
     
     
     
    Tomspeople
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2008 - 11:54 PM ET #2

    Well according to that, if you took the fav any time the fav or dog was off a bye week and the spread was 3.5-7, you would be 81-42-2

    I wouldn't mind 65.85% and +35.8u
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    Well according to that, if you took the fav any time the fav or dog was off a bye week and the spread was 3.5-7, you would be 81-42-2

    I wouldn't mind 65.85% and +35.8u
     
    powerade
    powerade
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    Posted: Oct. 16, 2008 - 4:51 PM ET #3

    or if you just took faves in that spread range 3.5-7 you would be 48-22
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    or if you just took faves in that spread range 3.5-7 you would be 48-22
     
    Tomspeople
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: Oct. 16, 2008 - 5:43 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    or if you just took faves in that spread range 3.5-7 you would be 48-22

    81-42 > 48-22

    I'd much rather hit a slightly lower percent with twice as many games, it's much more profit. (12u more in this case)
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    or if you just took faves in that spread range 3.5-7 you would be 48-22

    81-42 > 48-22

    I'd much rather hit a slightly lower percent with twice as many games, it's much more profit. (12u more in this case)
     
    powerade
    powerade
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    Posted: Oct. 17, 2008 - 5:16 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

    Well according to that, if you took the fav any time the fav or dog was off a bye week and the spread was 3.5-7, you would be 81-42-2

    I wouldn't mind 65.85% and +35.8u

    I thought that looked wierd...

    faves and dogs in the 3.5-7 spread range is only 68-55

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

    Well according to that, if you took the fav any time the fav or dog was off a bye week and the spread was 3.5-7, you would be 81-42-2

    I wouldn't mind 65.85% and +35.8u

    I thought that looked wierd...

    faves and dogs in the 3.5-7 spread range is only 68-55

     
    powerade
    powerade
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 4:32 PM ET #6

    2-0 with the road faves!!! ....and the bills won!
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    3-0
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    1-4
     
    Next Week:
    Atlanta is playing at Philly -pretty sure Atl will be a road dog so that will be a no play. Philly too is coming off a bye and will be a home fave for sure. The home faves in the 3.5-7 spread range are pretty solid but I imagine the Eagles will be favored by more that 7 points.
     
    Arizona is playing at Carolina -Carolina will be favored at home so no play here either.
     
    Cleveland will be playing at Jacksonville -The Jags are coming off a bye and at home. The spread may be in the 3.5-7 point range for a possible small play.
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    2-0 with the road faves!!! ....and the bills won!
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    3-0
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    1-4
     
    Next Week:
    Atlanta is playing at Philly -pretty sure Atl will be a road dog so that will be a no play. Philly too is coming off a bye and will be a home fave for sure. The home faves in the 3.5-7 spread range are pretty solid but I imagine the Eagles will be favored by more that 7 points.
     
    Arizona is playing at Carolina -Carolina will be favored at home so no play here either.
     
    Cleveland will be playing at Jacksonville -The Jags are coming off a bye and at home. The spread may be in the 3.5-7 point range for a possible small play.
     
    STEVEPERRY
    STEVEPERRY
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2008 - 11:56 PM ET #7

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    powerade
    powerade
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2008 - 9:32 PM ET #8

    there were no solid plays this week but I am going to update the records for the season and look forward to next week....
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    4-1
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    2-5
     
     
    Week of 11-2-08
     
    Chicago Bears -favored at home by 12.5 vs. Detriot -NO PLAY
     
    Denver Broncos -favored at home by 3 points vs. Miami. -NO PLAY
     
    Green Bay Packers -dogs on the road plus 6 vs. Tennessee -NO PLAY 
     
    Minnesota Vikings -favored at home by 4.5 vs. Houston -NO PLAY
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    there were no solid plays this week but I am going to update the records for the season and look forward to next week....
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    4-1
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    2-5
     
     
    Week of 11-2-08
     
    Chicago Bears -favored at home by 12.5 vs. Detriot -NO PLAY
     
    Denver Broncos -favored at home by 3 points vs. Miami. -NO PLAY
     
    Green Bay Packers -dogs on the road plus 6 vs. Tennessee -NO PLAY 
     
    Minnesota Vikings -favored at home by 4.5 vs. Houston -NO PLAY
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posts: 3736
    Posted: Oct. 27, 2008 - 3:37 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    there were no solid plays this week but I am going to update the records for the season and look forward to next week....
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    4-1
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    2-5
     
     
    Week of 11-2-08
     
    Chicago Bears -favored at home by 12.5 vs. Detriot -NO PLAY
     
    Denver Broncos -favored at home by 3 points vs. Miami. -NO PLAY
     
    Green Bay Packers -dogs on the road plus 6 vs. Tennessee -NO PLAY 
     
    Minnesota Vikings -favored at home by 4.5 vs. Houston -NO PLAY

     

    Very, very nice work

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    Quote Originally Posted by powerade:

    there were no solid plays this week but I am going to update the records for the season and look forward to next week....
     
    This season......
    HomeFave
    4-1
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    2-5
     
     
    Week of 11-2-08
     
    Chicago Bears -favored at home by 12.5 vs. Detriot -NO PLAY
     
    Denver Broncos -favored at home by 3 points vs. Miami. -NO PLAY
     
    Green Bay Packers -dogs on the road plus 6 vs. Tennessee -NO PLAY 
     
    Minnesota Vikings -favored at home by 4.5 vs. Houston -NO PLAY

     

    Very, very nice work

     
    Stake24
    Stake24
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2008 - 12:00 PM ET #10

    I like these trends
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    I like these trends
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Nov. 4, 2008 - 4:44 AM ET #11

    Carolina this weekend????
    Or is it too high??
    Looks too high, looks like anything over 7 is blah
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    Carolina this weekend????
    Or is it too high??
    Looks too high, looks like anything over 7 is blah
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Nov. 4, 2008 - 5:20 AM ET #12

    New Orleans -1 looks like a "grade A" play
     
    Also, AZ -9.5 looks like a "small" play
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    New Orleans -1 looks like a "grade A" play
     
    Also, AZ -9.5 looks like a "small" play
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Nov. 4, 2008 - 5:22 AM ET #13

    scratch the AZ play, thought it was 31-41, looks like actually 34-41
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    scratch the AZ play, thought it was 31-41, looks like actually 34-41
     
    powerade
    powerade
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    Posted: Nov. 4, 2008 - 5:40 PM ET #14

    This season......
    HomeFave
    5-3
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    3-5
     
     
    Week of 11-9-08
     
    Saints  +1 @ Atlanta NO PLAY
    49ers +9.5 @ Arizona NO PLAY
    Chargers -15 home to Kansas City NO PLAY
    Panthers -9 @ Oakland -lots of points where there is little example of the teams in this spot with the high spread, possibly worth a small play if your looking to pick on
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    This season......
    HomeFave
    5-3
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    4-0
    RoadDog
    3-5
     
     
    Week of 11-9-08
     
    Saints  +1 @ Atlanta NO PLAY
    49ers +9.5 @ Arizona NO PLAY
    Chargers -15 home to Kansas City NO PLAY
    Panthers -9 @ Oakland -lots of points where there is little example of the teams in this spot with the high spread, possibly worth a small play if your looking to pick on
     
     
    powerade
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    Posted: Nov. 16, 2008 - 11:05 AM ET #15

    This season......
    HomeFave
    5-4
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    5-0
    RoadDog
    4-6
     
     
    Week of 11-16-08
    Eagles @ Bengals +9.5 -home dog here but no play
    Vikings @ Bucs -4.5 -home fave, no play
    Cowboys -1.5 @ Redskins -both off byes, take the road fave
     
     
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    This season......
    HomeFave
    5-4
    HomeDog
    3-1
    RoadFave
    5-0
    RoadDog
    4-6
     
     
    Week of 11-16-08
    Eagles @ Bengals +9.5 -home dog here but no play
    Vikings @ Bucs -4.5 -home fave, no play
    Cowboys -1.5 @ Redskins -both off byes, take the road fave
     
     
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