Sweep Prevention

This topic may have been touched on but thought I would share some data.
First of all PicKnRole had a recent thread doing a 2-game anti-sweep chase. Good luck to him.
This is a little different. I started playing it around 6/24/10 and its gone about 23-8 including 5-0 on July 4.
No Chase. Just play on the team's final game that's in danger of being swept ml if favored and 1.5 if dog.
Then wait until the next round of games start.
The lines aren't that bad either since its mostly shitty teams or good teams on the road.
This is an easy one to back-test, but I don't have the time so I just play small $.

Tonight's teams in danger of being swept are:
Bal_1.5_+105
Bos_1.5_-130
Arz_1.5_-165
Oak_1.5_-160
Sea_ml_-145

I'm been looking into this, also. Haven't finished with the numbers, but like what I've found so far.

You're right, the lines are usually always pretty good, especially playing to win outright. I haven't looked at playing the +1.5, but it might make a good difference.

That being said, I really don't like any of these teams to win outright tonight, but I'm sure 1 or 2 probably will.

Leprechaun pointed this out one day a few weeks back, when there were like 7 teams one day going for the sweep, and we made a nice little payday playing that one day.

Good job smitler, like what you've been bringing to the table lately

Cheers 

You play too many games. Junkie.

ran this quickly looking at AL last year but only playing on home teams that lost the 1st game of a 3 game series or 1st 2 of a four game series for AL was 95-20.  This is shutting it down the first week of september.  Odds were all over the place some teams were dogs, a few heavy favorites.  Profit margin obvioulsy would be dependent on the juice you were laying

106-27 for NL 2009

What sbout maybe taking into consideration East coast teams playing on the west coast and vice versa

I posted this stat in the other thread but I'll post it here as well and explore this a little more.  This season, teams facing a sweep in third game of a 3 game series:

Home: 34-33
Road: 54-48

For 2009, this is what I have:

Home: 68-58
Road: 77-111

Playing the dog on the RL would definitely shift these numbers a little in the winners favor, but I don't think this system will profit in the long term if you don't add some sort of filter.  Home teams are way behind their sweeping pace so far this year...(only 15% right now when they averaged 19% for 08 and 09) so I'd really watch out if you were playing this on road teams.  Back on June 24, we had that strange day with 11 teams facing sweeps so I went against them.  With just 5 on the board and laying pretty decent juice on three of them, even three wins will likely break you even.

Point is...this is pretty high risk to play today statistically...but of course, with the way your 1st inning score streak is going, maybe you have the midas touch.  Good luck!  My system is on 2 of these, so I hope it does well.

Leprechaun

The truth cuts deep.

Me too. Just ask janeanthony008.

Yeah, he's a day behind trying to sweat out Pit cover tonight.

Hey Tito, saw you wrestle in college. Not Good!!!!!
This memorable quote also applies to tonight's games.

Pirates
Angels
Brewers
Cardinals
Padres

There has to be a winning angle here.  Seem like more sweeps than usual this year.  Does anybody have the stats handy.

Smitler-

Did you look at my numbers in post #7????  I showed you the sweep stats and why this angle will not work without some sort of filter being applied.  Your comment about sweeps this year is off...it is exactly the opposite...there have been far fewer sweeps so far.  Here's some data for you (sorry it's in long form...don't know how to post a table in here):

2008: 3 game series; Home sweeps 115 of 593 (19.4%)
2009: 3 game series; Home sweeps 111 of 584 (19.0%)
2010: 3 game series; Home sweeps 54 of 338 (16.0%)

2008: 3 game series; Road sweeps 55 of 593 (9.3%)
2009: 3 game series; Road sweeps 58 of 584 (9.9%)
2010: 3 game series; Road sweeps 36 of 338 (10.7%)

See...sweeps are down this year, especially for home teams.  I mentioned this in my previous post already.  If anything, you want to bet ON home teams to complete the sweep for the rest of the season, not against it.  That is, if you are playing this from a statistical angle.  A big piece of my system is based on this so I pay close attention to sweeps and how teams perform if they win/lose the first, second, or third game in a series.  If you want to find the angle here, you must dig deeper.

Leprechaun

Since I have no system plays and I'm bored, Today is a good day to take a look at the situation for sweeping.

We have 6 home teams looking to sweep and two road teams.  If we are going to start to see a regression to the mean as I predicted, stats say that 4 of those home teams complete the sweep today and probably one of the road teams.  This is where capping can meet stats.  The 6 home teams are Clev, Angels, Cinci, SD, SF, and Cards.  The road teams are Toronto and Oakland.  If I had to pick two home teams that won't get the job done today, I'd pick SF (against Santana who is top notch in the 2nd half) and Cards (many factors, including some numbers from my system).  For the road team to pull off the sweep, Toronto is the obvious choice in this situation.  I'll play the home teams in a RR parlay(2s, 3s and 4s) and throw in Toronto as a straight side play.  Let's see how it goes.

RR parlay: Clev, Angels, Cinci, SD
Road team to sweep: Toronto

Leprechaun

Good Luck Lep.

I am revisiting this also.

I played all favorites ML and dogs 1.5
col
lad
nym
arz
det
bal
kcr
sea

I also separated into NL and AL did parlays ml favs and 2.5 dogs.

Angels and Cinci both lose by 1 run with Angels losing in extras.  Basically broke even on these because I played Toronto pretty heavy.  I also had the Dodgers who lost the heartbreaker and had the Mets who choked away the lead in the bottom of the 9th but luckily still won.  Pretty stressful day with 3 games coming down to the 9th and 10th innings.  Anyway, home teams went 3-3 closing out sweeps and road teams went 2-0.  Right number of sweeps in my prediction, wrong combination.  I'll continue to watch this and will be focusing on home teams closing out sweeps and road teams failing to do so.  Anytime I make plays, I'll post them in this thread.

Leprechaun

3-5 on the day.
I never realized there were this many sweeps during a season.

I've revamped this bitch and its kickin ass last few weeks.
I probably just jinxed it.

A_Fade Bal large
A_Fade Phi
B_LAA these guys are so bad on the road I can't risk RL.
A FLA 1.5, 2, or 2.5
A STL ML
A NYY
A CHC very small

A min ml
A cle rl

I chased all these and they all cleared.  All won outright at some point and I had chc reduced juice +1.5 rl on 5dimes.

There are a lot of plays starting tomorrow but my gem is going to be fade Toronto.

A cle ml
A tor ml
B mil  -1
A was
A kcr 2.5
A pit 1.5