Posted:
#1
I see a lot of questions about line moves and I thought I'd chime in with some tips.
I've been watching lines for years and have become pretty good at picking out the right games. One thing to remember is that when you see a reverse move it doesn't always mean the book is trying to trick you.
Reverse line moves are caused by public betting one side and heavy money going on the other.
Some factors that cause a false positive
1) heavy money from rich degenerate gamblers
Just because there is heavy money on one side doesn't mean it's all sharp money.
2) injuries
Big line moves that pass key numbers are usually caused by an injury. Could also be a key player suspension or anything that may affect the teams performance.
3) Even if it's sharp money they are not right all the time. Although if a group of good cappers are hitting one side heavy that's good.
things to look for
1) just because the line moves the wrong way doesn't qualify a reverse line move. You have to watch percentages for spread money, money line, and exotic action.
2) watch the moves early, late moves don't always mean anything. early moves are more likely to be cappers that see a soft line.
3) Always cap your games, but consider a move to either secure a bet or pass. For example, because the college football card is so big I usually pick out all the reverse moves on a card then just concentrate on those games.
4) Unfortunately when using this method you're not always getting a good line. The value may be lost.
Finally, if you bet all the reverse moves in college football and pro football you will almost always come out ahead. You're losses will usually come from paying juice.
There is no such thing as a "lock" unless you fixed the game, you're still going to win or lose.
I've been watching lines for years and have become pretty good at picking out the right games. One thing to remember is that when you see a reverse move it doesn't always mean the book is trying to trick you.
Reverse line moves are caused by public betting one side and heavy money going on the other.
Some factors that cause a false positive
1) heavy money from rich degenerate gamblers
Just because there is heavy money on one side doesn't mean it's all sharp money.
2) injuries
Big line moves that pass key numbers are usually caused by an injury. Could also be a key player suspension or anything that may affect the teams performance.
3) Even if it's sharp money they are not right all the time. Although if a group of good cappers are hitting one side heavy that's good.
things to look for
1) just because the line moves the wrong way doesn't qualify a reverse line move. You have to watch percentages for spread money, money line, and exotic action.
2) watch the moves early, late moves don't always mean anything. early moves are more likely to be cappers that see a soft line.
3) Always cap your games, but consider a move to either secure a bet or pass. For example, because the college football card is so big I usually pick out all the reverse moves on a card then just concentrate on those games.
4) Unfortunately when using this method you're not always getting a good line. The value may be lost.
Finally, if you bet all the reverse moves in college football and pro football you will almost always come out ahead. You're losses will usually come from paying juice.
There is no such thing as a "lock" unless you fixed the game, you're still going to win or lose.
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