Soccer Betting - NOT TO LOSE SYSTEM

I have been betting soccer for a couple of years now and hit the World Cup real hard. It helped turn my losing 2014 into a winning year. But, it was more on luck and instinct then any kind of system. Didn't hurt that I had Germany to beat Brazil at +210 and put my whole roll on it. That's not a system, that was more of a spot I felt I could not lose.

But I did start betting and have been using a "system" during the World Cup and so far into some of the leagues that are going on an it goes something like this;

1. You select a game where there is a favorite in the range of +-140, with the other 2 outcomes paying you at a minimum of +200. There is ZERO deviation to that.

2. You place equal wagers on both the side that's paying the +200 or more and the DRAW.

The logic lies in that you control 2/3 of the outcomes and in this game anything can happen. I units must be equal ALL the time and I keep them rather small as this is something that I am new at trying. Perhaps once we get into the season and we see who is IN FORM and which clubs are playing well, we may up the ante and use this as an approach to pick a spot rather than as a system. Right now its a matter of collecting data. I have played just about every game that's set forth in the parameters over the last several weeks and I am up 5 units. That's not shabby, but its not great either considering I have bet close to a hundred games.

Lets look at exampled from the board today and study;

From the Austrian Bundesliga you have Grodig +125, Draw +230, and AC Wolfsberger at +190. This is a game that you pass on. It does not match the criteria of the system.

From Brazil Serie A you have Botafago RJ +253, the Draw at +257, and Cruziero at +117. This is where you play the system. Even more favorable since you have the home team as well. I look for games like this. So we will put an equal unit on each.

I will post my picks and track the progress for you. Remember, this is in its infancy and I am already starting to feel that in the long term it may not be as glorious, but to this point it has been a success and in a sport with 3 possible outcomes, I like having control of 2 of them.

I look forward to seeing how this goes

Swiss league

08-07

i started doing that during the WC but my timing was awful. glad to see someone else with this idea. i can't bet on these games with my vegas book (only us, mexican, english, & french leagues, it looks like), but i'll be watching.

Yes that would qualify under the system. Right now, I'm trying not to deviate too much, but at the same time there may come a time to take a side. For example in the Guinness Cup finale, Liverpool and the Draw would have been the system play, but I put my money on Man U because I just think they are playing really well. Liverpool went up 1-0 into the half and the NTL system was looking good but Man U came back and won. So what well have to do is become a bit more selective with our games.

08.09.14

Orebko SK +212 Draw +200 vs Mjallby

EA Guingamp +221 Draw +211 vs St Etienne

Bordeaux +214 Draw + 209 vs Montpellier

 

how are you doing so far? 

4-4 (1 game pushed or was taken off the board)

1-2

2-1

so all my documented plays have gone for a record of 7-7. I played some others I have not posted but the record is much the same. I would be down this week if I had not won on  +625 play on the MLS All Stars, which kept me afloat and up for the week. I will further analyze some more factors into these plays as apposed to just shooting darts. My belief is that there is a use for this during the season, just choosing spots more carefully is more important.

 

It's time for the first serious hit. I'd like to note that the bets being placed were of small amounts. Lunch money. We'll now move onto standard units. My first real play

0-1

Today another one with serious money. I take Borrusia Dortmund +205 and the draw +245  vs Bayern Munich.

Would have liked the draw hug I'll take the win.

nice win. 

Before, I was just throwing away money. Thinking that controlling 2/3s of the outcome was good enough. All I looked for was the odd price and really nothing beyond that. Now, Im being more selective by familiarizing my self with select leagues. Additionally, I spend more time now learning about the teams, their players, their styles, etc.,

Here are a few metrics I look at.

1. First, study the table. I look a goal differential, record, home/away splits, etc.,

2. I look at the form of the team and into injuries

3. I look at historical and recent matchups of the teams. I don't like trends in general, but they do serve a purpose time to time.

Perhaps the two most telling parameters are, is the team playing at home. I really put an emphasis on getting the matchup on home field. It just gives us that extra edge. Second, when the teams are rather close and there is not much separating them statistically, It would get rated as a play because likely the game may end in a draw.

In closing, Im not just firing blindly anymore, but am taking more educated guesses. Ive found too often last season that Id take a side that was -125 or +125 and the game would end in a draw or I'd lose outright and id sit there wondering how and why the favorite could lose. Then, I applied this strategy during the World Cup and I was shocked at how many times, teams don't do what they're suppose to.

MODERATOR - MAY I PLEASE HAVE THIS MOVED TO THE SOCCER FORUM

Today France 1

Bordeaux +205, Draw +224 vs Monaco

2-1 is the official count.

Draw is at 222.

MODERATOR - PLEASE MOVE TO SOCCER FORUM

I've done something similar which is called dutching, dividing a stake on a home team at big + odds and draw. I forget what other parameters I had in place but pretty sure it was just dutching with home teams rather than away teams. Had some reasonable success so may back to it again now soccer season is here.

some advice, go to Covers Help (forum) explain, they'll move your thread immediately to the appropiate forum you desire. asking for this assistance within your thread will bring absolutely no response; mods simply do not read every thread in the forum....with the exception of "Covers Help"

Zenit Petersburg and the draw vs benfica on 9/16/14

3-2

AC Milan +250 and the Draw +236