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Smurph's Best Bet Chase

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Prospect
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Posts: 432
Posted: #1
Been tracking my best bets from every sport. Betting as a 3 bet chase, 1u,2u,5u.

Usually one per day;sometimes more, sometimes less. Over the course of 2016 here are the stats:

38.6 units profit
240 total bets
125-109-6
11 Game 3 Losses of 8 units

There will be losses.. Clearly about once a month.. but the system is still profitable, and more profitable than flat betting every single bet, which would have net only about 12 units.

Best part about being only a 3 bet chase is you can increase the unit size compared to a longer chase starting low at $10-20. Obviously still keep bets at a reasonable level.

Good luck fam

 
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Posted: #2

currently in a chase that is going to Game 3 today... The bet is Saints +3 5units ... I will not count it towards the tracking here since the chase started before posting. good luck

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
First official best bet is tonight: LA Kings -115 1 unit

Good luck
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Game 1 Loss.. 

System Profit: -1

..on to the next one

Tonight's play is Chicago State +27.5 (NCAAB) (-110) 2 units



 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Game 2 Win... almost got the ML upset as a 27 point dog

System Profit: .818 units
 
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Posted: #6
New chase... game 1: UCF +3 (NCAAB) (-115) 1 unit
 
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Posted: #7
Game 1 Loss

System Profit: -.182 units

Game 2: Kings +6 (NBA) (-115) 2 units
 
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Posted: #8
Game 2 Win

System Profit: 1.557 units

There will be two plays today and I probably won't have time to update in here until tomorrow so the units for Game 2 will either be 1 (if we win Game 1) or 2 (if we lose Game 1).. bet accordingly

Game 1: San Diego +6 (CFB) (-115) 1 unit -- game is at 3:30 PM

Game 2: Rice/Pitt under 157 (CBB) (-115) either 1 or 2 units depending on result of game 1 -- game starts at 7 so be aware of the end of game 1

back tomorrow with results and another pick
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Two 1 unit wins last night

System Profit: +3.296 units

Game 1: Lions +4 (NFL) (-105) 1 unit
 
Veteran
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Posted: #10
Hey smurph, would you be offended if I run my own thread doing the same thing here? It's a simple idea that I would like to try for myself.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

Hey smurph, would you be offended if I run my own thread doing the same thing here? It's a simple idea that I would like to try for myself.


Go for it and good luck. It should be more profitable than flat betting as long as you don't tend to go on losing streaks often
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
Game 1 loss

System profit: 2.296 units
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Game 2: Pistons +3 (NBA) (-115) 2 units
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
This is a nice System. I don't bet a lot of money and I think this will work nice for me. Thanks man!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
This is a nice System. I don't bet a lot of money and I think this will work nice for me. Thanks man!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
re-ran some numbers and there were actually only 10 losses in the past year. i accidentally double counted a loss.. profits are actually just under 60 units (including the wins that have been posted in here).. lets hope the trend continues for 2017
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
Game 3: Cal Poly / Washington Under 159 (CBB) (-115) 5 units

Let's get it
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
Game 3 win

System profit: 4.644 units

Let's keep chuggging along.

Game 1: Northern Iowa +19 (CBB) (-115) 1 unit
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
Game 1 slaughter

Game 2: LSU/Wake under 158 (CBB) (-110) 2 units
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
Woof... Game 2 loss

On to Game 3: Old Dominion / Eastern Mich over 64 (CFB) (-110) 5 units

will update stats after this game
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21

calling this one early Game 3 loss 



System Profit: -4.644 units

System Record: 5-1


Overall Profit: -7.569 units (with hypothetical flat betting)

Overall Record: 5-7




 
Prospect
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Posted: #22

sorry-- stat fix 


Overall Profit: -2.569 units (with hypothetical flat betting)

Overall Record: 5-7

 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
to be clear, I am playing the "System".. the "Overall" stats are to track how much better/worse I would do with flat betting amounts
 
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Posted: #24
Now I'm at a game 3 that should be a game 2. I am debating hitting the reset button and not risking 5 on units. 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #25
based on my bet history, its worth it in the long run... its all about staying consistent in where you hit the reset button. for this system it is after 3 losses. if a win comes on what would have been the 4th so be it. who knows if you'll win the next or lose another 3. I've found that if you stay consistent with your rules it works out in the long run
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