Simple NFL System

If you go back over the past five years and chase an over for every team in the NFL only 3 streaks have gone longer than four games.  One ended on game 5 the other 2 on game 6.  

This is only to start the season, right? 

Correct.

6 game chase in the NFL is a long time. Throw in a bye week and the book will have your money tied up for almost 2 months. 

First of all your math is slightly flawed as with the bet progression above you would lose 69 units if all six games lose, but you would also win the other 31 that year so the loss would be 38 units or about a years worth of units.  

Jeff what's your point? My point is that you are able to make more with this type of a chase so the risk is worth it over the same time period.

I like the over tonight, and the idea of betting less teams. Then i would jump in on the C bets we didn't play. Just a thought, C round proved well.

Why not just make it a 4 game chase? Over that 5 year period you we'd still be up 105 units. Personally I dont think that is enough data to formulate a system since its only 160 games. That one years worth the data in baseball and nobody in their right mind would play a 6 game chase with one years worth of data in baseball. If this held up for let's say 15 years a think you might have something. This is just my opinion of course. Good luck though. 

The rule changes in NFL have a big influence on the game totals year to year.  It used to be rare to have a total over 50, this year there are 3 in week 1.

Bottom line is the results.

Thanks OTBS.

Good Luck to all.

Week 1 ended up being way up and down but ended up with an 8-8 split.  

Teams left after week 3:

Teams left after week 4:

One team left for the year.

Yep.  I'm there with you.    I will be combining this with a couple huge money line plays to help offset the risk some.   But looks good right now!!

The bet would be risking 21.39 units or bet to win 19.44 units.

This is bad news.  I like the under for Phi/TB.  TB has scored very, very few points weeks 1-5.  Phi can put up points, but TB knows the only way they can win is with solid def.  And despite a poor win/loss record they have been pretty stingy on defense.

GL on the play.  Is this the final play of the 6 game chase?

Tampa had a bye last week so this would be game 5 in the chase.

Opening o/u line, or do you wait until just before the game starts?  Right now I see 45.5 for this game 5.

All back testing has been done against closing lines.  We of course would try to get the best number available, but line moves are typically pretty hard to predict

Nice to get this system closed out up 32 units. The same type of thing works for the NBA.  We'll start a thread on that in few weeks.  Add us as a friend or send a PM if you have other questions.

Congrats. 

I nailed the last play...thx OTBS! Solid system