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Shouldn't we just FADE?

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Participants:

Posts: 12

oilcountry99

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 1304

Posted: Dec. 29, 2012 - 10:20 PM ET #1

if 90% of sports bettors lose over the long term would it not be profitable to fade peoples systems or plays instead of trying to find the winning combination? Or maybe just fade your own system?

jaime2309

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 2257

Posted: Dec. 30, 2012 - 12:24 AM ET #2

Lol good theory....

All about the chase

curly1973

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 50

Posted: Dec. 30, 2012 - 10:30 PM ET #3

90% of all systems go 50% long term. Most betters are terrible with money management though. They raise their bets after a winning day and lower their bets after losing days. It should be the other way around. You can make consistent money only hitting 50%. And like I said, any system that you use will go 50% long haul.

oilcountry99

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 1304

Posted: Dec. 30, 2012 - 10:45 PM ET #4

What type of money management would you suggest assuming a system with a 50% win rate?

We know we need a win rate of 53.8% I believe to break even flat betting.

curly1973

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 50

Posted: Mar. 17, 2014 - 10:11 PM ET #5

The % rate your talking about is closer to 52.5%. You can go 6-8 and show a small profit on the day. I do it all the time. Or 2-3. Or 9-10. I don't go full martingale and double my bets. But I do increase my bets a little after a few losses in a row. I'm not rich doing this. But I have been able to bet consistently year after year with showing a small loss or small win at the end of most seasons. NFL and NBA mostly. Say I have 9 bets going, and the day starts off 2-4.............I'll raise my last 3 bets. If the day starts off 4-2.............I'll lower my last 3 bets. Or say...........its Friday, and my system has went 11-20 for the week so far and my week ends on Sunday. I'll raise my bets for the remainder of the week. Sometimes I regret it, but it seems more often it helps a lot.

dd_1_pl_4_u_

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 41

Posted: Mar. 18, 2014 - 8:22 PM ET #6

If you handicap the NBA for example or any other sport forget about systems, touts, friends opinions, etc. I like the system I use because I do not want to keep up with who is playing etc. I am 59 I have seen this happen over and over if my friend or anyone falls in love with a pick on the board they will put a large straight bet on the pick it will also be on all their parlays teasers etc. When this pick goes down they lose all their bets. If this same person stops playing you can ask them who they like and they will be right 70% of the time but if they are playing they will lose 70%. So do your own handicapping until you find that one pick you just love and bet your money on the other team because that is the team your bookie will be pulling for since a lot of players will be on the same team you picked. Sounds easy but it is very hard to bet on the ugly team.

JEFFTHEHAT

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3843

Posted: Mar. 19, 2014 - 12:32 PM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by tinaneedsmoney:

well at laest i learned something here

Thanks evryone tina

What's Tina need money for?

moneymaker14

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 12528

Posted: Mar. 29, 2014 - 3:17 PM ET #8

bang em either way. But tough way to actually stay disciplined and profit

hansivonmueller

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 1908

Posted: Mar. 30, 2014 - 4:41 PM ET #9

I have faded a few soccer systems, unfortunately just when your doing great, they fold the system. Then you have to move on to the next one, till it folds. I don't know how common it is for MLB to produce losing, season long systems.

fadeyoulosers

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 111

Posted: Apr. 6, 2014 - 6:54 PM ET #10

never doubled up after any losses never in my life been at this for 20 years.

just look how staying with a fixed % automatically adust your wager amounts for the day.

short series
start with $500 bank X 5% = $25 allowed per day
bet 1st day lose $25 bank is now $475 X 5% = 23.75 allowed ok round up to $24 lost 2nd day bank is now $451 X 5% = $22.55 round up to $23 u lost that 3rd day now bank is at $428 X 5% = 21.40 round off to 21$ you lost again now we have to lower the % to 3 % bank is $407 X 3 % = 12.21 round off to 12$

finally a win lol $407 + $12 = $419 X 3 % = 12.57 ok round up to $13 bam see that your able to bet 1$ more than yesterday using same %

If you doubled up on the losses you really would have wacked out a large chunk of that $500 even if you only doubled up only 3 times out the 1st five losses .

lets run the numbers i'm not using juice here just all flat even money bets to make it simpler.

bet 1st day lose $25 decide to double up 2nd day to $50 lose that

now down 75$ ok we just bet 75$ now to get back to 0 but we lost that too now - $150 so we bet $150 day 4 lose that also omg you just dropped $300!!! 60% of your bank is gone you now have $200 left you think u have a lock but thats all u have left in account so you bet $200 and time to refund your account LOL

That's without doubling up every day just trying to get back to even.

THE wise guys sharps n pros developed this method do not try and break the rules or methods they have been using since before you were born.

There aren't 1000's of pros out in vegas i only knew 25 personally that i became friendly with way back in 70's learned how to handicap the sports and won my fair share at 62% lil nice pay for the year about $25,000 won net profit.

couldn't afford runners LOL i was too small of bettor maybe $200 in one day so the casinos never even blinked when i made a bet.

HEY i could have held onto the winnings each year and bank rolled into $100,000 but i bought nice things with the winnings. So i had something to fall back on in case.

YES it was jewelry most of it gold platinum diamonds and it paid off when i had to return home my business went south after 7 years so i had all that jewelry to use to get me a new home back east and able to start up again.

donfernando

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 108

Posted: Apr. 7, 2014 - 10:27 AM ET #11

i have fade some of the system i use to chase, never get a lose doing these, this doesnt mean that the original system have fall down, but i have avoid getting many (D) bets.

i do it beacuse: how many system hit 4 or 5 in a row on (A) days, inmediatly the system goes to (B) day, the fade its a winner

JEFFTHEHAT

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3843

Posted: Apr. 7, 2014 - 10:38 AM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by fadeyoulosers:

never doubled up after any losses never in my life been at this for 20 years.

just look how staying with a fixed % automatically adust your wager amounts for the day.

short series
start with $500 bank X 5% = $25 allowed per day
bet 1st day lose $25 bank is now $475 X 5% = 23.75 allowed ok round up to $24 lost 2nd day bank is now $451 X 5% = $22.55 round up to $23 u lost that 3rd day now bank is at $428 X 5% = 21.40 round off to 21$ you lost again now we have to lower the % to 3 % bank is $407 X 3 % = 12.21 round off to 12$

finally a win lol $407 + $12 = $419 X 3 % = 12.57 ok round up to $13 bam see that your able to bet 1$ more than yesterday using same %

If you doubled up on the losses you really would have wacked out a large chunk of that $500 even if you only doubled up only 3 times out the 1st five losses .

lets run the numbers i'm not using juice here just all flat even money bets to make it simpler.

bet 1st day lose $25 decide to double up 2nd day to $50 lose that

now down 75$ ok we just bet 75$ now to get back to 0 but we lost that too now - $150 so we bet $150 day 4 lose that also omg you just dropped $300!!! 60% of your bank is gone you now have $200 left you think u have a lock but thats all u have left in account so you bet $200 and time to refund your account LOL

That's without doubling up every day just trying to get back to even.

THE wise guys sharps n pros developed this method do not try and break the rules or methods they have been using since before you were born.

There aren't 1000's of pros out in vegas i only knew 25 personally that i became friendly with way back in 70's learned how to handicap the sports and won my fair share at 62% lil nice pay for the year about $25,000 won net profit.

couldn't afford runners LOL i was too small of bettor maybe $200 in one day so the casinos never even blinked when i made a bet.

HEY i could have held onto the winnings each year and bank rolled into $100,000 but i bought nice things with the winnings. So i had something to fall back on in case.

YES it was jewelry most of it gold platinum diamonds and it paid off when i had to return home my business went south after 7 years so i had all that jewelry to use to get me a new home back east and able to start up again.

I'm pretty positive that over 100 bets you would be lucky to hit 50%. Quit being such a complete idiot and go away , your embarrassing yourself!

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Shouldn't we just FADE?

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