Posted:
#1
I had a comment or two on Sharky's system which many of you seem to be interested in if not follow on here. I know I don't have much validity to anything I say here but I had a comment or two to make.
A Quote from SharkysDen.com:
"The passing game is football, I don't care what anyone say's, the running game for an NFL team means squadoosh. It's all about passing, think of it this way, Team A only passes the ball and the average pass is 7 yeards. Team B only runs the ball and the average run is 4 yards. Who will get to the end zone more? If you said Team B then you need to take 1st grade over, because the law of physics is clearly on the passing teams side. Teams that pass gain 2 more yards per play than teams that run, so my money is on the passing game.
So for your next step you want to look at the pass per play stat, sometimes listed as YPP (yards per pass). Take the yards per pass offense and subtract it from the yards per pass defense to get your number.
for example: Team A's YPP offense is 7.2 and defense is 4.8 you want to subtract 7.2-4.8= 2.4. Do this for both teams and the bigger margin will be the winner. If the bigger margin is the team that your ratings favor against the spread then you have a pick."
for example: Team A's YPP offense is 7.2 and defense is 4.8 you want to subtract 7.2-4.8= 2.4. Do this for both teams and the bigger margin will be the winner. If the bigger margin is the team that your ratings favor against the spread then you have a pick."
I had a variation or two to make to this theory. First off, the passing game is what football is all about, however, not the only thing it is about. The formula sharky is proposing here looks like..
(Team A YPP Offense - Team A YPP Defense) vs. (Team B YPP Offense - Team B YPP Defense)
In which the higher number should be the winner. However, a running game does exist in the game of football, which no matter what anybody says plays a role in games, every factor does.
Improving on sharky's system i have come up with this formula:
(Team A YPP Offense- Team A YPP Defense)*.75+(Team A YPR Offense-Team A YPR Defense)*.25 vs. (Team B YPP Offense- Team B YPP Defense)*.75+(Team B YPR Offense-Team B YPR Defense) *.25
In this equation you see I have weighted the Yards per play stat to compensate for the impact of passing and rushing in a football game. I chose .75 and .25 as my magnitudes, however feel free to manipulate your number accordingly, depending on how you see fit. Please give me your feedback on this, it would be greatly appreciated.
0
Hot Forum Topics
