Sharky's System (Revised)

I'm honored to have a thread in here.  To further my strategy I do look at the running game briefly when I think it may be an important factor.  but I'm a passing handicapper so I put more faith in the passing game. 

A good example of this strategy is Oakland on Monday night, they're running game was almost perfect in the beginning.  Not being able to move the ball with their passing game killed them.

anyway you don't have to do the work, it's done for you in my matchups section.   All the way to the bottom of the page of each matchup  there is a section called "power stats"

My method does mostly apply NFL but it does also work with college.  I agree that some college teams need to be looked at differently, there are more factors involved in each game with college and that's why I don't normally cap those games. 

I thinks it's great that you revised my method, that's why I have it on my website, to add a little extra to everyones handicapping.  There is no right or wrong way to cap a game as long as you have a winning percentage and use proper bankroll management.  

When you read my strategies you'll notice I like to keep it simple.  That's because I'd rather use a few important stats to see who has a better chance of winning and spend the rest of my time finding value.

I do have a question though, how did you come up with *.75 and *.25?

Let’s look at an example to see if this is what you mean:

Week 7, year 2000 Tampa Bay vs: Buffalo

TB   OY/P 5.16
TB   DY/P 4.53
Net     0.63

Buff   OY/P 5.39
Buff   DY/P  5.00
Net  +0.39

TB has a net advantage of  0.24  

Another way is TB expected value (5.16+5.00)/2 = 5.08
                   Buff expected value (5.39+4.53)/2 = 4.96
Advantage TB of   5.08- 4.96 = 0.12

The second method will always be half of the first method.

In this game, TB won by 14 points

I have looked at 3 years (NFL) so far and there appears to a low correlation to actual  MOV. And it appears to be useless in picking winners against the spread.

Years 2000,2001 and 2002, weeks 5 thur 17, the team with the better net yards/pass won (ATS) 260 anfd lost 298, for a win rate of  47%.

I think it doesn’t work.

BUMP.  A good example of where the .75 and .25 comes from may be this: Say Team A scores an average total of 400 yards per game, where it averages 100 yards RUSHING and 300 yards PASSING. The .25 from rushing would result from rushing yards/total yards i.e. 100/400 = 2.5.  Similarily, the passing would result from 300/400.  Just an idea.  Teams that score more total yards overall still tend to score more through passing so the passing is still emphasized. You'd have to find 4 decimal points for this though, taking up a lot of time.