SABERMETRIC WITH A TWIST

I know that alot of you have either heard of or read articles by James where he has clearly outline various formula's like RC, RC-2 ect...ect...  But is it possible that during all the calculations to generated the run count for the events, that several key factors were missed or over-looked?

Now I fully grant you that NO SYSTEM is garantee as the ideal play's for the day,  What I can garantee is a system that will attempt to look beyond the obvious, identify weak links in various games.

How will I do this?   Simple I have more less created a system that not only takes in consideration of the run counts for both teams, but also it takes into consideration other key factors of the game, such as Ball Park Factors, Starting Pitchers current and Past performance, Bull Pen Factor, situational plays that could lead to a key play during the course fof the game,  Injuries, Line-ups, Division Placement, and of course any possible rivalry that may exist.  Such a Big challenge right? it is, and like I mentioned earlier no system is ABSOLUTE.

So where do we go from here?  Simple we share concepts, idea's plays, and we discuss the outcome.

Hopefully during the course of this thread, we will be limited with the appearance of Non-Believers, Haters, and ignorant people.  n the past I have come to realize that when a system is working, and people read what is being said, WE ALWAYS get those people who have the tendancy of attempting to sabotage a concept, we have people who automaticly say, 'HEY YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT, LOOK AT YOUR ATS?'  Who cares about ATS, in covers we always just make picks to make picks.

Favorite's and Under-dogs, did you know that only abot 65-70% of the favorites win there particlar games, that leaves a potential of 30-35% of the underdog will win, doesn't matter which team.  Remember earlier I mentioned Isolate Weak Links of a Game or Games.  So if we can take lets say that 10 out of 15 games are favorites right?  so what is 30% of 10? 7, that means that there is a potential of 3 upset games, divide that in half and you have 1.5 either way......either the favorite will lose or whatever.  My concept in this thread is not to place unit wagering into the factor, but rather to isolate a winning card or 2 to 4 games per day.  Alot of these plays will be favorites, Why?  becuase if the numbes, and information goes that way it goes that way.

So how will a profit be made?  Simple yu parley your top 2 plays into one, with a limited amount of wagering, or whatever amont you seem appropriate, and if the homework is done, then you still double your money at the end of the day.

Anyways that is the basis of this thread,

Good luck bud. I did not follow your math on:

"Favorite's and Under-dogs, did you know that only abot 65-70% of the favorites win there particlar games, that leaves a potential of 30-35% of the underdog will win, doesn't matter which team.  Remember earlier I mentioned Isolate Weak Links of a Game or Games.  So if we can take lets say that 10 out of 15 games are favorites right?  so what is 30% of 10? 7, that means that there is a potential of 3 upset games, divide that in half and you have 1.5 either way......either the favorite will lose or whatever."

In fact, it makes no sense on a few levels. Can you re-explain this part? Just so were clear in your theory.

Like I said, good luck. The odds are way against you: When theory meets the real thing here on covers. Not usually a good outcome. Ive only seen 1 exception in the dozen or more systems that have been floated out here

St Louis over Milwaukee.. JUSTIFICATION:  St Louis Pitching (both with Wainright and the BullPen Factor);  St Louis tends to play better then Milwaukee after a Loss versus Milwaukee after winning there previous game.  Ball Park Factor, as we all know St Louis is really not a Hitters or Pitcher Ball Park (1.035)

Well All Know that Wolfe is Pitching today, he has a ERA of 4.86  with a WHIP of 1.57.  With StL Hitters, I foresee a very long day for Milwau.  Wainright normally lasts 6-7 innings, but his WHIP of .97 will keep MILW at bay.

What I was attempting to say is that during the course of daily games, approcimately 30 to 35% of all games are considered to be upset, and should be taken into consideration when making your plays.  This factor is always considered when making a "SITUATIONAL PLAY"

you don't have the sense the good Lord gave a watermelon

tout motherfuckin wannabe