I guess this question came up here at covers quite some time before but I was wondering if anyone has done some research on Sabermatrics regarding baseball? Did anyone set up a prediciton tool? Using sabermatrics or a monte carlo simulation or anything? I am really interested in this topic and would love to hear if anyone has experience with this. I have some really smart computer guys as firends who are willing to give this a try, I jusst dont have the real idea how to start this...
Thanks for your comments...
Call82
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hi Folks,
I guess this question came up here at covers quite some time before but I was wondering if anyone has done some research on Sabermatrics regarding baseball? Did anyone set up a prediciton tool? Using sabermatrics or a monte carlo simulation or anything? I am really interested in this topic and would love to hear if anyone has experience with this. I have some really smart computer guys as firends who are willing to give this a try, I jusst dont have the real idea how to start this...
Sabermetrics is a major key to successful MLB Handicapping. There used to be a great thread by sports_Network until a combination of people who were jealous and/or ignorant destroyed it, and he just left.
I think he still lurks around here time and again, so I would send him a PM and see if he responds. You can find his profile on my friends list if you need.
Cheers
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Sabermetrics is a major key to successful MLB Handicapping. There used to be a great thread by sports_Network until a combination of people who were jealous and/or ignorant destroyed it, and he just left.
I think he still lurks around here time and again, so I would send him a PM and see if he responds. You can find his profile on my friends list if you need.
Sabermetrics is a major key to successful MLB Handicapping. There used to be a great thread by sports_Network until a combination of people who were jealous and/or ignorant destroyed it, and he just left.
I think he still lurks around here time and again, so I would send him a PM and see if he responds. You can find his profile on my friends list if you need.
Cheers
That sounds good! Often its hard to find the right people to bring your thoughts to work, now I have the people to make this work but I dont have the starting point...I know which stats one should use to get started, I just dont know how to get them in a good simulation tool...I will give it a try...thanks bro
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Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:
Sabermetrics is a major key to successful MLB Handicapping. There used to be a great thread by sports_Network until a combination of people who were jealous and/or ignorant destroyed it, and he just left.
I think he still lurks around here time and again, so I would send him a PM and see if he responds. You can find his profile on my friends list if you need.
Cheers
That sounds good! Often its hard to find the right people to bring your thoughts to work, now I have the people to make this work but I dont have the starting point...I know which stats one should use to get started, I just dont know how to get them in a good simulation tool...I will give it a try...thanks bro
I use a full sabermetrics analysis during baseball season... The starting points are all over the internet, just google it and you'll get far more information than you can handle. After you find which formulas/metrics you think are the most applicable/best indicators, start messing with formulas (either your own or someone else's) and start plugging in numbers! It's mostly trial and error but baseball is a game of numbers with A LOT of games played so it DOES work. All of my baseball picks in THIS THREAD were based off of sabermetrics.
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I use a full sabermetrics analysis during baseball season... The starting points are all over the internet, just google it and you'll get far more information than you can handle. After you find which formulas/metrics you think are the most applicable/best indicators, start messing with formulas (either your own or someone else's) and start plugging in numbers! It's mostly trial and error but baseball is a game of numbers with A LOT of games played so it DOES work. All of my baseball picks in THIS THREAD were based off of sabermetrics.
I use a full sabermetrics analysis during baseball season... The starting points are all over the internet, just google it and you'll get far more information than you can handle. After you find which formulas/metrics you think are the most applicable/best indicators, start messing with formulas (either your own or someone else's) and start plugging in numbers! It's mostly trial and error but baseball is a game of numbers with A LOT of games played so it DOES work. All of my baseball picks in THIS THREAD were based off of sabermetrics.
Your constant winners are really impressive, I have to admit
I sent you a friend request...have some more questions Id like to PM you about...
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Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
I use a full sabermetrics analysis during baseball season... The starting points are all over the internet, just google it and you'll get far more information than you can handle. After you find which formulas/metrics you think are the most applicable/best indicators, start messing with formulas (either your own or someone else's) and start plugging in numbers! It's mostly trial and error but baseball is a game of numbers with A LOT of games played so it DOES work. All of my baseball picks in THIS THREAD were based off of sabermetrics.
Your constant winners are really impressive, I have to admit
I sent you a friend request...have some more questions Id like to PM you about...
This sabermetrics seems interesting albeit complicated. As someone who's never heard of this where would the single best place to start learning about this?
Call82.....Like you I'd be curious how to go about creating a prediction tool, if you come across any info maybe you could post or pm me.
Good Luck!
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This sabermetrics seems interesting albeit complicated. As someone who's never heard of this where would the single best place to start learning about this?
Call82.....Like you I'd be curious how to go about creating a prediction tool, if you come across any info maybe you could post or pm me.
I love Bill James. In my opinion he is the genius behind the Red Sox resurgence. He can break down the numbers and look for the value in them like no one else.
I remember once listening to him explain why Cabrera, when he played for the Expos, was the best shortstop in baseball. It was irrefutable, pure logic, and yet highly entertaining. Very cool stuff.
Damn, I just noticed that Time named him one of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2006. Impressive.
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I love Bill James. In my opinion he is the genius behind the Red Sox resurgence. He can break down the numbers and look for the value in them like no one else.
I remember once listening to him explain why Cabrera, when he played for the Expos, was the best shortstop in baseball. It was irrefutable, pure logic, and yet highly entertaining. Very cool stuff.
Damn, I just noticed that Time named him one of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2006. Impressive.
If you bet baseball, you should have heard about sabermetrics. In a game with so many games, pitchers, stats, etc., you would be stupid not to use some form of it. I assume it's like all other sports though, people bet with their gut more than they should. That and sabermetrics is rather complicated so the recreational better won't bother themselves with it.
I've always thought about deriving metrics for other sports but never really put more thought into it. One day...
As for sports network, he blew up fast and was doing incredibly well that when things started going sour, he felt the pressure and began manipulating numbers and using false lines. Things deteriorated quickly after that. But god, if you tailed that guy for the first month or two, you were making SERIOUS coin.
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If you bet baseball, you should have heard about sabermetrics. In a game with so many games, pitchers, stats, etc., you would be stupid not to use some form of it. I assume it's like all other sports though, people bet with their gut more than they should. That and sabermetrics is rather complicated so the recreational better won't bother themselves with it.
I've always thought about deriving metrics for other sports but never really put more thought into it. One day...
As for sports network, he blew up fast and was doing incredibly well that when things started going sour, he felt the pressure and began manipulating numbers and using false lines. Things deteriorated quickly after that. But god, if you tailed that guy for the first month or two, you were making SERIOUS coin.
As for sports network, he blew up fast and was doing incredibly well that when things started going sour, he felt the pressure and began manipulating numbers and using false lines. Things deteriorated quickly after that. But god, if you tailed that guy for the first month or two, you were making SERIOUS coin.
That's too bad...I'm only on post 221 of his thread but he seemed solid. Very informative and willing to share and teach.....very cool IMO. DJ do you think the method he was using Base_Runs System is still solid as a starting point. He was obviously sharp in his capping and really new what to take out of the metrics for a givien situation. I don't think I'm up to the point where the thread took a turn yet. So far sports_Network seems like a big loss to the forum. As for deriving metrics that truly is beyond me at this point, it's hard enough keep up with his thread but as it goes along he drops plenty of nice hints and tips if you're paying attention. I much rather read something of that nature rather than a textbook of a bunch of crazy stuff, it's nice how he dials in on one aspect. I see sabermetrics can be extremely overwhelming.
Good to see you back in the forum, continued success!
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Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
As for sports network, he blew up fast and was doing incredibly well that when things started going sour, he felt the pressure and began manipulating numbers and using false lines. Things deteriorated quickly after that. But god, if you tailed that guy for the first month or two, you were making SERIOUS coin.
That's too bad...I'm only on post 221 of his thread but he seemed solid. Very informative and willing to share and teach.....very cool IMO. DJ do you think the method he was using Base_Runs System is still solid as a starting point. He was obviously sharp in his capping and really new what to take out of the metrics for a givien situation. I don't think I'm up to the point where the thread took a turn yet. So far sports_Network seems like a big loss to the forum. As for deriving metrics that truly is beyond me at this point, it's hard enough keep up with his thread but as it goes along he drops plenty of nice hints and tips if you're paying attention. I much rather read something of that nature rather than a textbook of a bunch of crazy stuff, it's nice how he dials in on one aspect. I see sabermetrics can be extremely overwhelming.
Good to see you back in the forum, continued success!
Check post #57 where he declares that games that go shorter or longer than 9 innings aren't counted in his records... He comes up with a quasi-legit explanation but most people on here wouldn't agree with such a thing. What you post is what you play, which brings me to the next flaw...
Post #68, he declares that his posted plays are subject to change. He posts a certain line but grades it using another line, but only when it is in his favour. This happens several times. Also, he got better lines than anyone and chalked it up to line shopping.
Post #216/220 is where he talks about how he deviates from the Base runs/runs created formula and 'cuts' games on a whim yet maintains that there is a theory that anyone can figure out... no one ever figures it out.
Posts #500-800, people start brining up money management. Many people ask him to post units or at least give a hint as to how he chooses but he dodges. Many days he's going 4-6, 3-6, etc. and somehow ending up +2 or +3 units.
He actually hits a pretty good streak for the month of July (despite shady money management) and even continued a bit into August but the facts remain that there was NO money management referenced until AFTER the plays were decided.
When people say something is too good to be true, it usually is. This is a perfect example... If anyone could do what sports network 'did' in the fashion that kreatture and I run our journals (tight tally keeping, real money management, etc.), they would be god among men. But sports network stayed vague under the pretense of "self-education" and weeding out the "bottom-feeders" when in actuality, he stayed vague so that he could claim losers as winners. How often did you see him dodging questions (telling people to read the entire thread to find their answers)? Why were there so many questions in the first place if it was already mentioned? All because he was vague and never answered a single question directly.
oilcountry, after you have read everything, tell me what PAC is... You likely won't have a concrete answer, yet it is fundamental to sports networks' system. Or tell me what his 'unit attachment' strategy is? Or how to cut games? JUST TRY, IT'S NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.
Post #2125 satirizes this nicely and Post #2142 is the nail in the coffin.
kreatture posts a few times throughout and maintains that it was legit and I trust and respect him... but you do you think him or I would allow such shady techniques to happen today in the S&S forum? NOT A CHANCE. I can't speak for kreatture, but personally, I would be blasting anyone who posted picks without proper/legit lines and units.
I don't want to say kreatture and I run the S&S forum but we're as close to it without being moderators. We're shining examples of how to properly document your wagering. We incorporate sound methodologies and we don't hide or shy away from any question about our techniques. Everything is out on the table and anyone could go back and triple-check our numbers and not find a single mistake.
If sports network could say the same, we would be regarded as a true Covers legend... but his memory is almost wiped clean from here because he is more myth than legend.
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Check post #57 where he declares that games that go shorter or longer than 9 innings aren't counted in his records... He comes up with a quasi-legit explanation but most people on here wouldn't agree with such a thing. What you post is what you play, which brings me to the next flaw...
Post #68, he declares that his posted plays are subject to change. He posts a certain line but grades it using another line, but only when it is in his favour. This happens several times. Also, he got better lines than anyone and chalked it up to line shopping.
Post #216/220 is where he talks about how he deviates from the Base runs/runs created formula and 'cuts' games on a whim yet maintains that there is a theory that anyone can figure out... no one ever figures it out.
Posts #500-800, people start brining up money management. Many people ask him to post units or at least give a hint as to how he chooses but he dodges. Many days he's going 4-6, 3-6, etc. and somehow ending up +2 or +3 units.
He actually hits a pretty good streak for the month of July (despite shady money management) and even continued a bit into August but the facts remain that there was NO money management referenced until AFTER the plays were decided.
When people say something is too good to be true, it usually is. This is a perfect example... If anyone could do what sports network 'did' in the fashion that kreatture and I run our journals (tight tally keeping, real money management, etc.), they would be god among men. But sports network stayed vague under the pretense of "self-education" and weeding out the "bottom-feeders" when in actuality, he stayed vague so that he could claim losers as winners. How often did you see him dodging questions (telling people to read the entire thread to find their answers)? Why were there so many questions in the first place if it was already mentioned? All because he was vague and never answered a single question directly.
oilcountry, after you have read everything, tell me what PAC is... You likely won't have a concrete answer, yet it is fundamental to sports networks' system. Or tell me what his 'unit attachment' strategy is? Or how to cut games? JUST TRY, IT'S NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.
Post #2125 satirizes this nicely and Post #2142 is the nail in the coffin.
kreatture posts a few times throughout and maintains that it was legit and I trust and respect him... but you do you think him or I would allow such shady techniques to happen today in the S&S forum? NOT A CHANCE. I can't speak for kreatture, but personally, I would be blasting anyone who posted picks without proper/legit lines and units.
I don't want to say kreatture and I run the S&S forum but we're as close to it without being moderators. We're shining examples of how to properly document your wagering. We incorporate sound methodologies and we don't hide or shy away from any question about our techniques. Everything is out on the table and anyone could go back and triple-check our numbers and not find a single mistake.
If sports network could say the same, we would be regarded as a true Covers legend... but his memory is almost wiped clean from here because he is more myth than legend.
Hey guys, I really appreciate the commentts here, I will give it a start where you mentioned...I checked wiki with all the links quite some time ago, guess I should do so again :-)
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Hey guys, I really appreciate the commentts here, I will give it a start where you mentioned...I checked wiki with all the links quite some time ago, guess I should do so again :-)
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