Run Line System

Its simple

1. Choose a Game that the opening lines is 10 or more runs

2. Bet the favorite Runline and bet the dog Alternative Runline, Both Ways you make profit if the game is not decided by 1-Run

Why??? because high total is unlikely to be decide by 1-Run

MLB 2010

April (19-5) 79.16%, May (Until May 18) (20-7) 74.07% Source: Scoresandodds.com

I dont have the units but im gonna follow starting today i think its profitable more when dogs runline hits

GL Guys

Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

betting this way and winning  79.16% = losing money ..

We will see what happens its depends on the lines and how many dogs hits, anyway is a test

Ytd (0-0)

All Plays 1 Unit

5/19 Play:

1. Cubs -1.5 +202 & Phillies -1.5 +143

What you were thinking?

Thanks for the comments anyway

Ok Ok

Yes i know that but this system is different is has to be a high opening line 10 or more because that makes unlikely to be decided by 1 run and if the dogs hits pays generally more than +200

I quickly crunched my existing numbers as to play on all dog on the RL as well ..and over the course of the season this is more unprofitable than the the traditional way .. as well ,you'd be interested to know that the opening line has little effect on 1 run games.. intuitively you would think that  games with less runs expected would have more 1 run games.. but the flip side of this is that games with more runs have that many more 1 run combinations... i.e a game with 7 runs only has 8 ways to be a 1 run game ( 1-0, 2-1, 3-2,4-3  each way )..whereas a game with 13 runs has 14 ways..based on last years numbers you would need over +200 on all dog wins ..and 150 on the fave wins  to just break even

- I am not sure what level of testing you haave done, but on sportsdatabase.com  ..you can query 1 run games etc ..and do the math .. again, just trying to help ..cos i have spent many many hours running queries on these types of plays ..and bottom line is that they are just not profitable, unless you combine with some type of martingale, labouchere system... of course if you prove me wrong, thats a good thing !

it is right below this one... "Don't chase......etc...

Im Just saying that a high opening line 10 or more is more unlikely to decide by 1 run in the season this are hitting over 76.47% either way favs and dogs i dont have the numbers of the alternative runline  thats why i want to test it thats all, let it go and the time will tell us by the way im not trying to prove your are wrong im just testing something

GL

I am not a math guy, but how do you (neisly25) come up with the idea that a game with 13 runs has 14 ways to be one run? The idea here is that a high o/u total means the game should be high scoring and thus making the game less likely to be a one run game.  I think I understand your point, however you are missing the fact that a game with a high o/u total is more likely to not have a 1-0, 2-1, etc outcome.

How many games does vegas set at 10 that ends in a 1-0 final? Yes it is within the realm of possibility, but you are more likely to see a game set at 7 to be a 1-0 outcome than a 10.  For example, if a game is set at a total of 10 and the game goes over with say 13 runs, then there is only 2 possibilities that you will lose. 7-6 the home team wins or 6-7 the away team wins. However, there is 12-1, 11-2, 10-3, 9-4, or 8-5. 5 outcomes for the away team winning and 5 outcomes for the away team.  That is a 10 to 2 chance of a win by playing both a RL Fave and Reverse line Dog

Record 2010 MLB

April

11 Dogs 9 Faves 5 Losses

May Until 18

9 Dogs 11 Faves 7 Losses

Thats why i want to test it!

I knew I had looked at this before, this is what we came up with.  The percentages of 1 run games are lower with the higher o/u.

626/2319 (27%) ended as a 1 run game in 2009

Opening O/U                               Total games

7-8.5 = 274, 43.8%                     964, 41.5%

9 = 161,  25.7%                          547, 23.5%

9.5 = 117, 18.7%                       448, 19.3%

10= 40, 6.4%                            225, 9.7%

10.5+= 34, 5.4                        135,5.8%         

Looks like there may be a lower proportion of 1 run games in the higher run total games which intuitively makes sense but I dont know if this is statistically significant  

Thanks for the info!

Ytd (1-0) 1.02 Units

5/20 No Play

5/19 Play:

1. Cubs -1.5 +202 & Phillies -1.5 +143

Pinnacle

mmm sorry i didnt see US

i dont know Really sorry